Wednesday update

SHORT TERM: pullback day, DOW -117

Overnight the Asian markets lost 0.2%. Europe opened lower and lost 0.7%. US index futures were lower overnight, and the market opened four points below yesterday’s SPX 2078 close. At 10am, while the market continued its decline, Pending home sales were reported lower: -0.9% v +0.2%. At 10:30 the SPX hit 2069 and tried to rally. The bounce lasted for one half hour as the SPX hit 2074, and then headed back down. At 3:30 the SPX hit 2062, then bounced to close at 2063.

For the day the SPX/DOW lost 0.70%, and the NDX/NAZ lost 0.80%. Bonds lost 2 ticks, Crude dropped $1.15, Gold slid $8, and the USD was higher. Medium term support drops to the 2019 and 1973 pivots, with resistance at the 2070 and 2085 pivots. Tomorrow: weekly Jobless claims at 8:30, then the Chicago PMI at 9:45.

After yesterday’s gap up and go rally, when the market became quite overbought short term, today’s pullback fits. From last week’s SPX 2006 low, we have five waves up to SPX 2067 which we have temporarily labeled Minor 1. A pullback to SPX 2042, labeled Minor 2. And now a two wave rally SPX: 2082-2062? We would expect this pullback to find support soon, and then the rally to resume if we are in an uptrend. Keep in mind SPX 2044 still remains the up/down trend fulcrum point. Short term support is at SPX 2042 and the 2019 pivot, with resistance at the 2070 and 2085 pivots. Short term momentum declined from yesterday’s quite overbought condition to oversold today. Best to your last day of trading in 2015!

MEDIUM TERM: still a positive bias for a potential uptrend

LONG TERM: bull market


About tony caldaro

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165 Responses to Wednesday update

  1. gasman88 says:

    2016 – will be YEAR OF A BEAR
    Just imho
    Happy New Year everyone

  2. tomasso60 says:

    Happy New Year Tony and to everyone else on site.
    best wishes for a great 2016

  3. simpleiam says:

    Lil bastardly bots are leaving 2040-42 until Monday! LOL! That figures… 😉
    HNY All! Stay safe, and warm. Let’s hope 2016 is an up year for stock indices. many of us with Employer 401ks can’t short stocks, so we’re dependent upon uptrends, or money funds…

  4. lunker1 says:


  5. Dex T says:

    The market is closing negative for the year!

    All the months of agony and frustration and we are slightly less than where we began 1 year ago. What a ride!

    The bear returns next year!!

    Happy New Year!

  6. rc1269 says:

    HNY Tony and gang!

  7. torehund says:

    Its a year to forget (2015), I welcome 2016 !

    Happy new year to our relentless guide Tony C and to all that contribute and read his site.

  8. simpleiam says:

    CNBC coming to Houston next Tuesday, eh? They need to wait a year…

  9. tommyboys says:

    RUT displaying RS last couple days. Lots are green 🙂

  10. lunker1 says:

    IWM and MDY with the RS
    Indexes making intra .886’s

  11. asaraniti says:

    Massive dump (over 381,000 shares on 1 minute bar), on ticker symbol SSO (2x SPX ETF).

  12. EL MATADOR says:

    Now this is some symmetry that would be nice heading into 1Q earning and setting up the big o’le dump dump

  13. blackjak100 says:

    They will close this very very close to 2058.90 just like 2011??????

  14. simpleiam says:

    Just got a news flash: The FLML bear flag is because they own Roth’s Henry in Dubai! So this fire’s been going on for a couple hours.

  15. simpleiam says:

    That’s quite a fire going on in Dubai. Afterward, if they rebuild, it will be the MGM Grand of Dubai. If you’re paranoid of fire in a LV hotel, stay at MGM.

    Happy New Year, and let’s hope stocks do better than in 2015. Health and Happiness is my wish for you all!

  16. fotis2 says:

    Tony and everyone else have a Happy New Year and hopefully it will be better going into 2016 be it bull or bear.

  17. Thanks Phil for your take on Erik Hadik & Gary Savage…

    Yes, I agree that if you are planning to buy physical gold for long term hold, then there is no really urgency to buy it here….long term it probably goes much lower into the 900’s.

    However I trade options, and i am looking for a seasonal 3-4 week rally in Gold which hopefully will bag me a double trading a bear market countertrend rally. That being said, we got another higher low today, but no spike lows below the December 1045 lows.

    Looking for a 10% bounce to 1150 ish in early 2016.



  18. uncle10 says:

    Thanks Tony.
    4th quarter is an inside quarter. Q1 going to be exciting!!
    Happy, healthy, and profitable new year everyone!

    • tony caldaro says:

      HNY Unc
      and to all in the OEW universe

    • tommyboys says:

      Hey Unc. RDCM hitting decade – if not ATHs today! XON went fro 27 – 70 and back down! GPRO in the toilet, CGEN 6.50-7.80 – 6.30 today last six weeks. SILC & ATTU free money here – bigtime! So it depends if you’re trading or investing 😉

      • uncle10 says:

        Hey Tboys, wild ride XON had! I did ok with Xon took profits on the way up. still holding a small “investment.” took small loss on gpro. Just looked at your small cap guys they looking good. We play again this year. My pick is XON hehehe. Whats your pick?
        happy new year my friend!

  19. Tony Jordan says:

    Another bullish possibility … 3 waves from 2042 to 2082 then 4th wave to today’s low (2046). 5th wave up in progress.

  20. manunidhi21 says:

    ES first week 2015 high 2035.25..last week 2015 low 2035.25(till now)

  21. fotis2 says:

    Gaps 2062 and 2078

  22. gasman88 says:

    you never know when they’re gonna turn the machines one, I think we will close the year in positive territory above S&P 2058

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