Thursday update

SHORT TERM: quiet holiday trading, DOW -50

Overnight the Asian markets lost 0.2%. Europe opened higher but finished flat. US index futures were lower overnight, and at 8:30 weekly Jobless claims were reported lower: 267K v 271K. The market opened one point below yesterday’s SPX 2064 close, ticked up two points to yesterday’s high, and then started to pullback. At 10am the market hit 2059, then tried to rally. At 12:30 the market hit 2067, and then pulled back to close at 2061.

For the day the SPX/DOW lost 0.20%, and the NDX/NAZ ended mixed. Bonds gained 5 ticks, Crude rose 50 cents, Gold gained $7, and the USD was lower. Medium term support remains at the 2019 and 1973 pivots, with resistance at the 2070 and 2085 pivots. Today the GNP was reported lower: +1.3% v +1.9%, and the WLEI was reported unchanged at 49.4%.

The market opened slightly lower today, dipped, and then made slightly higher highs for this week’s rally. A quiet ending to a constructive week. Not much change from this week’s SPX 2006 low: 2017-2008-2030-2020-2067. The market is now closed until Monday. Happy holidays!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend may be underway

LONG TERM: bull market


About tony caldaro

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46 Responses to Thursday update

  1. James Reed says:

    Merry XMas to OEW community. I feel blessed to have found you all. Like minded seekers.
    I hope that ’16 brings abundance in all forms to you.

  2. Merry Christmas to all OEW followers!

  3. Rancho says:

    Merry Christmas Tony and all !

  4. torehund says:

    We may not appreciate fully that, in the extension of our pursuits, we are actually modern day fortune tellers. EW, techicals, analyzing trends (and their point of change in time) are our tools. Our schooling goes far beyond, and is richer than attempting to make a buck of two..

    • torehund says:

      Important message on oil/energy/metals, and long term signals generated from year end closings. We may mold into a situation where Commodities may bottom out, whilst the Euro could still have lots of downward work left undone.
      A situation may appear in which massive stagflation erupts EX-USA, especially in Europe, and Putin rising alongside an escalating cat fight concerning oil-reserves in the Middle -east.

      • When and if the Euro stops dictating what gold does will be a sign of golds(and commodities)turnaround chances increasing.Right now they walk hand in hand.I m just hoping for a nice profitable rally for about 4 weeks in GDX.Anything else is a bonus.

        • torehund says:

          Yes, there will be a point in which Americans will start digging into Commodities. Could be sooner rather than later, look at $Sugar it could be the Canari in the coal mine.

  5. jeffbalin says:

    Thank you Tony, Merry Christmas all!

  6. kvilia says:

    Merry Christmas Tony and thank you for your work!

  7. bhuggs52 says:

    Tony, thank you so much for all your work. It’s been a great year, one where I’ve learned a lot from you and your bloggers.

    Happy Holidays To All!

  8. blackjak100 says:

    A little Gann commentary regarding 2061 written yesterday and now is today’s close almost to the penny.

    Thx TC and everyone else! Merry Xmas!

    • aahmichael says:

      So after all of his mumbo jumbo, his conclusion is that the market could either go up from here…or down from here. How does that help people trade?

      • blackjak100 says:

        Who says you have to trade off of it? I’m not a Gann expert, but my understanding is if it’s going to turn down…it needs to right here (mon) otherwise an acceleration to the upside is very probable and my guess would be to 2090-2100 where int i will complete.

      • Just keep trine ‘n trine.

  9. nsteve24 says:

    Tony, Merry Xmas t you and your family.
    Am truly grateful for your generosity and goodwill to others.

  10. fotis2 says:

    Have a wonderfull Xmas Tony and all the posters and God Bless.

  11. mike7x says:

    Thanks Tony and Happy Holidays to you, your loved ones and everyone who visits your blog.

  12. Thanks for everything Tony. Happy Christmas. Rick

  13. GDX finished near highs for 2nd day in a row.Now all that s needed is for GDX to make a strong move over 14.30-14.40 (50d)and we just might go to 20.

    Stocks:Lots of opinions about junk ready to cause an implosion.Spreads widening to 2008 levels.Can t ignore that and unless the dollar gets weaker (Atl GNP of 1.2% may indicate some of that)so that oil can rally and help out the underlying oil credit spreads,I don t see how equities can ignore the problem indefinitely.HYG is bouncing–may go to 82.20.Transports may go to 7734.Both breakdown points.Just a guide to possibly know when to exit equities again.
    ——Or the Fed fixes everything and we were worrying about nothing…lol.
    Happy Holidays all.

  14. camper1888 says:

    too many people using TA and looking for rally.. Market is gonna throw a curve ball and go lower next week… Go below 2000

  15. did the WROC signal fire off?

  16. skmcobra says:

    Tony, I apologize if this has been asked before and I missed it, so please entertain me here. Avi Gilburt is convinced we are in Major 5 of P3 right now with the Aug pb being Major 4. He has Major 5 of P3 taking us to 2300+ and then P4 down into 1800s again. Your analysis seems to make more sense to me with the Aug pb being P4 as it was very similar to P2 in 2011. Can you provide me something convincing that will get me completely on board with your count verses his?

  17. Page says:

    Thanks Tony.
    Happy Holidays to All.

  18. aahmichael says:

    Happy Holidays Everyone!!

    I remain short at 2063 from last Thursday. Without going into the details of all of the internal waves, I believe the odds are very high that we finally completed an irregular failure wave B today, which started at 2019 on 11/16. My stop remains at 2105, but I expect to be able to lower that at the close on Monday. If my count is correct, then the market should start going down immediately on Monday. On the flip side, if it did another blast up to 2090, it still wouldn’t change my B wave count.

    • Nice job sticking to your guns Mike.

      Mike Tyson once said “Everybody has a plan, until they get punched in the face”. So trading ain’t easy, ‘cos you never know when you get it in the face, but you have to stay true to your plan regardless and as long as you avoid getting knocked out, you hope to keep jabbing away.

      Expecting a hard sell off next week, since I don’t see leaders participating in this recent rally off the lows, and it clearly smacks of low vol holiday short covering bounce/profit taking in the dogs where the smart money was heavily short.


    • wavediver says:

      I agree. We didn’t gap up this morning. My volatility indicator says we’re headed lower.

      • EL MATADOR says:

        Why would anyone have even expected a gap up today. With the hourly RSI5 stratospheric overbought there was no friggin way market was going to gap up. Ideal we should have pullback, heck it didn’t even do that.

  19. 56rambler says:

    Wishing you and your family happy holidays and best wishes for the new year! Thank you for all that you do (here and elsewhere!)

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