Wednesday update

SHORT TERM: gap up week so far, DOW +185

Overnight the Asian markets gained 0.7%. Europe opened higher and gained 2.4%. US index futures were higher overnight. At 8:30 Durable goods were reported flat, PCE prices were reported higher: +0.1% v 0.0%, and Personal income (+0.3% v +0.4%)/spending (+0.3% v +0.1) was reported higher. The market gapped up at the open to SPX 2052 and continued to rally. The market had closed at SPX 2039 yesterday. At 10am Consumer sentiment was reported higher: 92.6 v 91.8, and New home sales were reported lower: 490K v 495K. The rally continued with small pullbacks along the way into the afternoon. At 2:30 the SPX hit 2065, dipped to 2060 by 3:30, then bounced to close at 2064.

For the day the SPX/DOW gained 1.15%, and the NDX/NAZ gained 0.85%. Bonds lost 5 ticks, Crude rallied $1.65, Gold slipped $3, and the USD was higher. Medium term support remains at the 2019 and 1973 pivots, with resistance at the 2070 and 2085 pivots. Tomorrow, a half day of trading: weekly Jobless claims at 8:30.

The market gapped up at the open for the third day in a row this week. Yesterday’s market activity seemed to have set the tone as the market closed above where it had opened for the first time in three days. If Monday’s SPX 2006 low was the end of the downtrend it was a failed Minor c wave. The only index that made a lower low, and got sufficiently oversold, was the DOW. From Monday’s low we currently have an impulsive five waves up: 2017-2008-2030-2020-2065. Should the market continue to move higher tomorrow we are likely to get a WROC signal, suggesting an uptrend is indeed underway. Our last WROC signal occurred at the beginning of October. Short term support is now at SPX 2042 and the 2019 pivot, with resistance at the 2070 and 2085 pivots. Short term momentum is currently in a stratospheric overbought condition. A pullback can occur at any time. Best to your holidays!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend may be underway

LONG TERM: bull market


About tony caldaro

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132 Responses to Wednesday update

  1. Wish all a very happy Holiday !!! Thank TC

  2. Well Be aware that if we close around this level 2063 spx we’ will have a Doji just know it

  3. xuwu992000 says:

    $$$ LAST CHANCE TO EXIT before MONDAY’s plunge. Crash alert triggered now.

  4. thoth8 says:

    Tony + to all you guys, Merry X-mas and Happy Holidays to you and to your family!
    Have a Glorious 2016!!! Thanks a million Tony for your dedication and hard work : )

  5. phil1247 says:


    best wishes for a safe , happy and healthy holiday season to you and yours

  6. quantmaven says:

    This Xmas rally is alive and well… I heard the argument that when everyone is thinking something it doesn’t happen but there is also the contrary argument of the self-fulfilling prophecy in the sense that people can make it happen if they really believe hard in it.

  7. phil1247 says:


    Happy and safe holiday to all !!

  8. GYN LAB says:

    Merry Xmas to all!
    Although it looks more probable right now of Major 3 underway, a local top here will create a nice confluence at 1966 (looking at int and minor wave fibs), with the .618 retracement of Major 1 at 1963.
    Santa seems to have already delivered the presents, lets see if Major 2 still ongoing will take hold into New Year! I will keep an eye on this as the alternative scenario for now.

  9. fionamargaret says:

    …TNA breakout…

    • fionamargaret says:

      …going to about 77….

      • Your last two comments could be a statement about beach goers & and unseasonably warm weather 😎👙 In all seriousness though, I’m surprised that the markets are stubbornly holding onto recent gains here – seasonality and thin volume I guess. Long UPRO til 1/8/16 or 2,170ish…whichever happens first.

  10. purplember says:

    tony, “if” int 1 completed at 2064 (2005 to 2064), int II would you expect a rather shallow pull back of 23% /2050 or 38%/2042 since this is major 3 ???

    thanks for all you do Tony. greatly appreciate it !!

    Jesus is the reason, merry XMAS everyone !!

  11. captbara says:

    Yen action is interesting. Didn’t seem to affect US indices much.

    Anyways time for Xmas sushi!

  12. Wouldn t mind gold breaking out over 1080 today as a Christmas present from Wall St…lol(and GDX over its 50d).Happy Holidays Mr C and all.

  13. hakunamatata1966 says:

    Thank you for all that you do and many thanks to the rest of the contributors. Wishing everyone aboard merry x’mas, happy holidays and a peaceful 2016.

  14. blackjak100 says:

    Probably No WROC today, but don’t overthink it…looks like minute 4 of minor 3 pullback today to target 2055ish. Still looking for minor 3 target = 2082ish early next week if it’s going exhibit a fib ratio which its not required to do. Cheers and merry Christmas!

  15. zvyezda says:

    Tony, Buon Natale!

    Thank you for all that you do, and to all the contributors on your board as well!

  16. reddragonleo says:

    ES Morning Update December 24th, 2015 –

  17. camper1888 says:

    It would be funny now if everyone switch to the bear side.. LOL

  18. Happy holidays to all!!


  20. gtoptions says:

    Happy Holiday Tony & The OEW Team.

  21. Failed waves, alternative counts, bla bla bla. I was just going over what will be my schedule d for 2015 and it looks like I’m going out around $320k for the year trading mostly TNA and lately NUGT. NUGT is my new girlfriend but TNA will always be my wife. And I love her so so much. I’d be up over $350k if it weren’t for that damn ES position I had during Aug. Which brings me to my rant about EW. Not ONE EW guy (that I know of) called Aug coming. Now we’re hearing ‘failed’ this or that. When I look at Tony’s charts and focus on where some of those wave labels are, I get very suspicious because I can’t help but call BS on some. Many appear to be forced in order to fit the narrative or bias. Avi is the king of doing that.

    Now I do admit that it does appear many times that the market does trade in 5 and 3 wave cycles making that alone very useful for predicting. And quite honestly the best in the biz is pretzel. However from my personal experience – which spans 20 years now trading for myself, not a firm’s money, you’re much better off using a few simple tools keeping it as clean and simple as you can with a repeatable system. Which I will explain how I do it in the next week as a Christmas gift to all. Nothing I do is secret or hard, just takes patience and focus.

    On a side note, WTF with Star Wars?!? We went to see it here in Newport at the big fashion island theater which, btw if you live anywhere in Southern California you must go see it in this theater – leather reclining seats, heh? – So let me get this straight – Luke became a great Jedi master but got upset when a student went bad, so he packet up his marbles and disappeared. So follow me… So just in case you want to talk to him, he left a secret map strewn out in multiple pieces as a sort of treasure hunt to his location. Which by the way is a deserted island somewhere in the south Pacific.

    This is the best the smartest most creative people in Hollywood came up with?

    • hk1122 says:

      I agree with the gist of your post. Looking forward to how you do it.

    • gtoptions says:

      Pathetic, money can’t buy happiness or good manners. Merry Christmas

    • gasman88 says:

      Yep, I watched Star Wars last night with my kids and was amazed this movie had the biggest weekend in the history. What a crap, my 8 year old could come up with a better script, this movie is nothing all about special effects. Just a brilliant marketing that will bring the sheep in. Hollywood has become an intellectual desert.

    • camper1888 says:

      Hahhahah.. Hey xscaler, i like u r cockyness.. I eill be following u closely next year…

    • tommyboys says:

      Unfortunately Uncle Sam will be confiscating $100k+ of that little gain – LT gains only here – and all unrealized this year. To each his own…

      • tommyboys says:

        ps…just about every theatre near here has reclining “leather” Lazy Boys…and full bars now as well😉

      • I’ve learned to accept that closer to 50% since I live in the socialist’s paradise here in Calif. 12% on top of the fed’s 39%. It is what it is. I can’t hold positions longer than a few day or weeks. I don’t trust the market. I’m going to see the Big Short today. I heard at the end it will piss you off. Once you come to terms with the fact that Wall Street is a cesspool designed to take your money and that CNBC is only there to promote money managers and their never ending ‘gotta be a buyer’ bs, then and only then will you be freed from the dark side and shown the light. That’s when your profitability will increase substantially. Many on this board and throughout the trading world need help. I wish I had me to show me the light back in the early 2000s. In 1997 through 2000 it was easy. Everything went up. I’ve traded through two major bear markets and am here standing. I have CNBC on all day and I can tell you first hand what garbage is spewn on that.

        • dwr51 says:

          My year was terrible but I only lost 4.3 Million, but I think I’ve got it figured out now so hopefully I’ll make it all back in a couple or three weeks.
          Merry Christmas to all and a happy prosperous 2016

        • aahmichael says:

          Since you claim to be a system trader, then why on earth would you ever have CNBC on for even one minute, and why would you read the opinions of others on internet blogs? Outside noise can do nothing but hurt a system trader. It can never help.

    • Thanks, Tony.
      Echo – OEW wave labels may appear to be forced because, as I understand/misunderstand it, they must fit OEW quantification rules.

    • chrisk44342 says:

      Easy bro. Glad to hear your wife is an etf and all but why come onto a blog someone else is hosting and insult him? If you have such a great system why were you taking a futures trade based on someone else’s?

      • Philippe V says:

        You guys should really chill and stop considering any criticism as an outright insult, it’s getting really childish. This behaviour is more reminiscent of a certain intolerant culture that shuns dialogue, progress, challenge and choses to remain stuck in its old archaic ways, not the open culture of our Western world. Anybody should be entitled to voice their own opinion even if it is not shared by the majority as long as it is politely stated and without belittleling intent which I think wasn’t the case from Echo1. Merry Xmas to all.

    • Xscaler, look forward to reading about your system. HH

    • James Reed says:

      X Scaler, I truly look forward to learning about your system as I am a nascent trader and am eager to learn about more successful trader’s systems. However, with that in mind I respectfully disagree with your estimation of OEW. As a lifelong surfer and ICU nurse, I know my life is governed by waveforms and OEW is the first trading discipline I have encountered that resonates with me both intellectually and spiritually. Additionally, on several instances this summer before the August crash, TC cautioned about the possibility of adverse price action. I am curious, if you don’t mind sharing, what is an average time frame for your trades and approximately how much of your trading account do you expose per trade?

    • ABchart says:

      Everything is closed in Europe.

      ES (MP):

      – Value between 2031 and 2058
      – Imbalance at 2072
      – Gap magnet at 2035
      – SPX cash +7.70 points.

  22. coming here in the 81th day , after I first posted here on 05.Oct.2015 my first call : … ” S&P 500 = 2241.21 ” … on the road

  23. fionamargaret says:

    Thanks Tony and all contributors – hope you have a great Christmas.

  24. torehund says: is bullish but food is bearish, happy Christmas all🙂

  25. CN doesn t stop in here often,but when he does…he s dynamite.Very impressive interpretations. (Hope this isn t a jinx).

  26. ABchart says:


    Thank you.

    We are probably in this case:


    En tout cas, cela fait un an et demi que je suis sur ton forum, et je suis très content d’y être. Merci infiniment pour tout ce que tu fais quotidiennement. Un travail certainement très difficile, qu’on ne peut faire que quand nous sommes des grands passionnés, et pas seulement par l’analyse technique ou Elliott, mais par la vie, les gens, le bien.

    Joyeux Noël à toi et tout les intervenants et les lecteurs.



  27. samjyana says:

    hey all hello what is WROC? thanks

  28. blackjak100 says:

    WROC ON!

    HH and cheers!

    • EL MATADOR says:

      Dude Natey is getting faulty tape data points. SPX did not make a lower low on Monday where Nate is showing wave 5/(C). Only INDU, NYA and OEX made LL on Monday. I understand why many folks want to count it as 5 down but IMO it not an impulsive 5 down.

      • aahmichael says:

        I agree that it wasn’t 5 down from 2077. Furthermore, he has a 22 day B wave that was an irregular failure (which signifies huge downside pressure and major weakness in the market,) followed immediately by a 2 day truncated C wave (which signifies huge upside pressure and major strength in the market.) That’s just not how markets work.

      • blackjak100 says:

        Agree not sure what’s up with his data feed. Didn’t even notice until you brought it up. I agree with the count from the (2) low however

  29. rc1269 says:

    People often seem to wonder whether retail is bullish or bearish right now. If you want a gauge of retail sentiment just look to see how things trade this week. Because this week is mostly retail. Cheers

    • wildmarkets says:

      I like your commentary and your timing but retailers are those who are making money in the last 6 years. They buy and do not when to sell. Traders get in and out and miss most part of the move. Hedge Fund managers are getting crushed and Mutual funds have unlimited money to buy.

      • wildmarkets says:

        Just to be clear, not sure if ones who are cheering here are the retailers or the mom and pops who buy stuff on regular basis in their long term accounts.

  30. wavediver says:

    Merry Christmas!

  31. Arthur Knopf says:

    I apologize for incorrectly posting the next Bradley turn date as Jan 7, it is actually Jan 5.

    This roughly follows my expectations for the first half of 2016 (inverted). I think we are all screwed with four years of Hillary, and a weak 1st half should have voters voting for “change” much as they did with Obama. The only way out that I can see is a Republican Pres that supports a Rand Paul type tax overhaul that benefits the middle class and smaller businesses who pay twice the % taxes of large corps with offshore tax shelters.

    We should see a strong second half if it looks like the Repubs will win. Targets later.

  32. budfox9450 says:

    Everyone have a Marry Xmass….I am outta here…:)

  33. budfox9450 says:

    My SP500 BoYu remains in a Buy signal from the 12/21 Low.
    Mid-January time frame is where I expect the next larger
    market top of some importance….Bud

  34. Enjoy this SPX triangle, and a close right at 50sma.

    Today was the bear’s turn to get schlonged again! Just ask the Donald.

    Tomorrow and/or Monday the bull gets “Trumped” and that wouldn’t surprise me a bit.

    Enjoy da holidays all!!

  35. camper1888 says:

    Hi tony,so if we dont see wroc signal tomorrow, the downtrend is still possible ? Whats the support ? Snp 1950 .. Thanks

  36. Page says:

    Let’s Rock🙂

    Thanks Tony. Happy holidays.

  37. EL MATADOR says:

    “The only index that made a lower low, and got sufficiently oversold, was the DOW.”

    Tony just want to point out that the DOW was not alone. You can add the NYA and OEX to that list. Also one should never doubt Santa, Santa has a was of always showing up but he may or may not stick around every year.

  38. I said Bears will be reduced to whimpering kittens and showed Bull flag when SPX was at 2008.

    Due to that post, I have to post another update.

    Now SPX is at 2064, and down leg will start. The price action you saw is “future expiry game” and will be over 2morow. It is over Bulls, however, price will see 2082 SPX, but when?

    I am not answering to any Qs/ideas/suggestions to this post.

  39. Gary Lewis says:

    Ummmm, my prediction for the three month test of the low on SPY at 191 is starting to look rather improbable. Maybe I should take a few months off and figure out where I went wrong! haha. I tried that last year. It didn’t work.🙂

    • budfox9450 says:

      Gary, try not to make predictions. Just follow
      the SP from W5 low to W5 high….IMO

      • Gary Lewis says:

        I’m still working off of my monthly sell signal in May. I believe that I reported earlier that in the past such monthly signals have resulted in down moves lasting from 12 to 18 months. A monthly test of the low would have turned me bullish. I got a successful three week test of the low at the start of this move. It was memorable for me because I was promptly slammed by dsoble who claimed that I am the worst trader on this blog. My call came one trading day before the actual low. Two weeks ago, we failed on a three week test of the high. Since then, we have been making lower lows and lower highs. I see nothing bullish about the current situation and discard your suggestion that I ride wave 5. I don’t see it.

        Have a happy holiday everyone.

        • kvilia says:

          Happy holidays. Think smaller, 1 day to 1 week is all you need. Mega trends work but not for trading, be quick and seal your profits. Follow Tony’s guidance and trade on your instincts, knowledge and experience. Don’t commit to anything – tomorrow may paint a different picture. Happy holidays.

    • xuwu992000 says:

      SPY at 191 is still within reach, and will be there in no longer than 3 weeks. My EW count and calendar cycle points to the second week of Jan., or more precisely Jan. 8.

  40. aahmichael says:

    Today’s action has caused me to change my count slightly. I see this week’s rally as either wave E of a triangle, or wave C of a flat that began at 1993. I remain short at 2063 from last Thursday. With the full moon on the 25th, I have to allow the market two more trading days of breathing room, so I have temporarily raised my stop to 2105.

    • blackjak100 says:

      TLT down again and breadth strong. I’m confused what facts you are seeing as bearish besides the wave count which is not a fact????

      • aahmichael says:

        I keep things very simple. To me, there is nothing more factual than the market action itself, which means the wave structure and the candlesticks. I trust what my eyes see. The market has been very volatile this month. 70 point moves in 2 days in one direction, immediately followed by another 70 points in 2 days in the other direction. Back and forth and back and forth. All of these moves have been internal waves. Add in the fact that the MCO is extremely overbought, and we are rallying into a full moon, then all things point to yet another top the way I see it. The last time the MCO put in a similar pattern and reached a similar level was on 9/17, and before that was on 7/16. Of course, I’ve been wrong before, and I can be wrong again, and that’s why I use stops.

    • xuwu992000 says:

      Tomorrow’s high won’t exceed 2070; from there, all the way down to lower 1920. Based on the chart and EW count, I see a catastrophic event occurring during the three-day holidays, either terror-related or geopolitical. Either way, people will rush to the exit next MONDAY.

  41. mike7x says:

    Thank you Tony! Yes. If the market moves higher tomorrow we are not only likely to get another WROC signal, the second since October. We are setting up to get another ZBT signal, the second since October. Coincidence?

    • tommyboys says:

      ZBTs are extremely rare are they not? Wasn’t October’s like only the fourth or fifth in two decades?

      • mike7x says:

        Correct TB. The “true” ZBT’s, long-term buy signals, are very rare. (Googling ZBT reveals confusion over the real vs. false signals via various articles.) Two ZBT’s so close together is extremely rare, just like Tony’s WROC signal. Next couple of trading days will be the tell.🙂

    • EL MATADOR says:

      Mike, just an FYI – Per Martin Zweig (page 84), Martin considers the second ZBT signal a repeat and would ignore the second signal because it’s superfluous. Simply put the first signal is still in effect. Per the 11 ZBT signals recorded from 1953 to 1993 the 3 and 6 month average rate of return were 7.5% and 15.2% respectively on the SPX. I’m still trying to figure out why the Y2008 ZBT signal failed. I might be able to figure it out after I’m done reading his book.

      • mike7x says:

        Thanks El Mat, I remember reading that now. Still, it does confirm the Oct. signal, which along with a new WROC (also 2nd since Oct.) from Tony would seem to be very bullish going into 2016! Just a bunch’a bull, huh?

    • tony caldaro says:

      maybe Mike
      October was quite a bull ride

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