SHORT TERM: another gap up opening, DOW +167
Overnight the Asian markets lost 0.2%. Europe opened higher and gained 0.3%. US index futures were higher overnight. At 8:30 Q3 GDP was reported lower: +2.0% v +2.1%, and at 9am FHFA housing was reported higher: +0.5% v +0.9%. The market gapped up at the open to SPX 2030, and immediately began to pullback. The market had closed at SPX 2021 yesterday. At 10am Existing home sales were reported lower: 4.76M v 5.36M. Just past 10am the SPX hit 2020, closing the gap, and then started to rally. The rally continued into the last hour of trading when the SPX hit 2043 at 3:30. Then after a quick pullback to SPX 2035 the market closed at 2039.
For the day the SPX/DOW gained 0.90%, and the NDX/NAZ gained 0.65%. Bonds lost 11 ticks, Crude gained 35 cents, Gold slid $6, and the USD was lower. Medium term support remains at the 2019 and 1973 pivots, with resistance at the 2070 and 2085 pivots. Tomorrow: Durable goods, the PCE and Personal income/spending at 8:30. Then Consumer sentiment and New homes sales at 10am.
The market gapped up today for the second day in a row and fourth time in the last six trading days. It opened at SPX 2030, pulled back to 2020, and then rallied to 2043. No opening at the high of the day today, so the trend may be changing. We posted a potential Minor a low/Major 2 low labeling at SPX 2005 on the hourly chart during the day. Lots of mixed signals at Monday’s SPX 2006 low. Currently we see a rally to SPX 2023 off Friday’s 2005 low, then a pullback to 2006, followed by a five wave advance to 2043 today. Thinking it could be an a-b-c counter-rally: 2023-2006-2043, or a small 1-2-3. With the market extremely overbought the next pullback should give us some hints. Short term support is at the 2019 pivot and SPX 1993, with resistance at SPX 2042 and the 2070 pivot. Best to your holiday trading!
MEDIUM TERM: downtrend
LONG TERM: bull market