Monday update

SHORT TERM: gap up opening, DOW +123

Overnight the Asian markets gained 0.2%. Europe opened higher but lost 0.9%. US index futures were much higher overnight, and the market opened at SPX 2021. The market had closed at SPX 2006 on Friday. After a tick up to SPX 2023 the market pulled back to 2015 by 10am. Then after a rally back to SPX 2023 by 10:30, the market dropped to 2006 by 11:30 to close the opening gap. Some more choppy action followed. A rally to SPX 2017 by 1:30, was followed by a pullback to 2008 by 3:30, then the market rallied to close at 2021.

For the day the SPX/DOW gained 0.75%, and the NDX/NAZ gained 0.95%. Bonds added 4 ticks, Crude slipped 30 cents, Gold rallied $11, and the USD was lower. Medium term support rises to the 2019 and 1973 pivots, with resistance at the 2070 and 2085 pivots. Tomorrow: Q3 GDP (est. +2.1%) at 8:30, FHFA housing at 9am, then Existing home sales at 10am.

The market gapped up at the open today creating the best rally since the recent decline from SPX 2077 began. But that rally ended a few minutes after the market opened at SPX 2023, and the market completely closed the upside gap at SPX 2006 by 11:30. After that the market bounced around a bit before rallying back to SPX 2021 at the close. For the third day in a row the market opened at the high of the day and declined after that. Change the pattern, change the trend? After seven waves down into Friday’s SPX 2005 low, the market bounced around between 2006 and 2023 today. The action looked choppy. Short term support at the OEW 2019 pivot and SPX 1993, with resistance at SPX 2042 and the 2070 pivot. Short term momentum rose to just above neutral off of Friday’s positive divergence, where it ended the day. Best to your Q3 GDP trading tomorrow!

MEDIUM TERM: downtrend

LONG TERM: bull market


About tony caldaro

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191 Responses to Monday update

  1. argento1 says:

    As old Jesse Livermore said you have to understand the dynamics of the market to successfully trade and get ahead, the Santa rally is just a smoke screen for the mutual funds adjusting their portfolios after the triple witching event and this causes the market to rally, there is a reason why it is also seasonally bullish due to the low volume (holidays) that result in no order selling and low volatility! To expect another leg down and new lows from here into year end is just not plausible IMO so most will miss the train up again!We have a classic bullish flag and with spikes in the SPYDER volume indicator and CBOE put/call ratio it supports the flat structure bottom for Major 2!Oil has also hit a medium term bottom so should assist with the rally and this time around the breakout attempt into Q1 2016…with January being earning season it will also give her that push into blue skies!

    I have been following FRB blog for a while and he means well, don’t understand the personal attacks against him cause don’t really see outstanding calls in this market from those that criticize him?? Yes one can’t trade on signals alone and need to understand the charts and seasonals too so we are all still learning and will do!

    My positions is outright bullish and will continue to hold well into 2016 for Major 3 and beyond!

    Thanks Tony for all your excellent analysis and keeping the folks humble in learning the tricks of the trade!

    Happy trading and festive season to all!


  2. phil1247 says:


    higher lows and lower highs below the 18 day average

    DIAGNOSIS … trend with negative bias per IRA EPSTEIN

  3. budfox9450 says:

    SP500 Resistance 2042…end

  4. phil1247 says:


    how high does the market have to go before we get another post from

    kevin 76

    the crickets are unbearable

  5. gtoptions says:

    @topofpage 😉
    or SPX 2076 for a flat ‘b’ ?

  6. Hourly RSI over 86 now! expect a reverse very soon wich could lead to minor C

  7. Tony i have seen you just have changed your count on the hourly chart what does it mean concretely? thanks

  8. Hi Tony,

    This action still appears very choppy n whippy….was expecting major 3 to be impulsive…..Is there a count that u are considering which fits for this rally to be impulsive since 2005?

    Thx for all that u do. Happy Holidays to you and ur’s.


  9. phil1247 says:


    looking for blowout lows tomorrow in oil

    this is because i took profits on oil short…and have no position

    sco to push 150 tomorrow

  10. themoose101 says:

    For those of you following FRB (aka CatchTheMoves), I just wanted to show you two most recent updates. The first is his pre-close update from Monday. It seems pretty darn clear from what he wrote on Monday where he expected the market was going. The second is an update he posted a short while ago today.

    Monday December 21, 2015
    Monday’s Pre-Close Update:
    Today’s SIGNAL: SELL
    Today’s STRUCTURE: Bearish (95%)

    Tuesday December 22, 2015
    Don’t Forget:
    Don’t forget what I wrote Sunday morning in my “Weekend Report P.S.” post:
    “I believe that the market ‘wants’ to go up for several reasons (which had just been listed in my Weekend Report) and thus will either avoid giving a Sell Signal on Monday or will follow it up with another Buy Signal on Tuesday so the rally can extend in an uninhibited manner.”

    So, the market moves in the expected direction = I told you so.
    Market moves in the opposite direction = I told you so as well.

    My admonition to the group, to our family here, is to simply think clearly and don’t blindly follow someone who may come here peddling their new and improved products.

  11. blackjak100 says:

    TC, is this a stealth major 3 beginning or are you still leaning no?

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