Friday update

SHORT TERM: gap down opening, DOW -367

Overnight the Asian markets lost 1.2%. Europe opened lower and lost 1.0%. US index futures were lower overnight, and the market gapped down to SPX 2032 at the open. The SPX had closed at 2042 yesterday. The market continued to decline and hit SPX 2018 around 10:30. Then after a rally to SPX 2028 just past 11am, the market made a lower low at 2013 by 12:30. After another rally to SPX 2024 the market declined to 2005 and closed 2006.

For the day the SPX/DOW lost 1.95%, and the NDX/NAZ lost 1.70%. Bonds gained 12 ticks, Crude lost 35 cents, Gold rallied $15, and the USD was lower. Medium term support drops to the 1973 and 1956 pivots, with resistance at the 2019 and 2070 pivots. Today the WLEI was reported higher: 49.4% v 49.2%, and the GNP was reported unchanged at +1.9%.

The market gapped down at the opening today, continuing yesterday’s selloff. After hitting SPX 2018 at 10:30, it had a series of waves lower: 2028-2013-2024-2005. We can now count seven waves down from Wednesday’s SPX 2077 high. More on this in the weekend update. Short term support is at SPX 1993 and the 1973 pivot, with resistance at the 2019 pivot and SPX 2042. Short term momentum displays a slight positive divergence. Best to your weekend!

MEDIUM TERM: potential uptrend under pressure

LONG TERM: bull market


About tony caldaro

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47 Responses to Friday update

  1. fishonhook says:

    While the markets melted down FXI and GXC and EWH were up, and FXP was down.
    odd no?
    Anyone know why?

  2. YahooFinance has a chart that shows a 20 year view of the Transports.Had been above its upper trendline- but has now broken below it at 7734.Next support they say is 4000.Also a smaller channel from 2009 breaking at the same spot.Looks like the Trannies and equities by inference are in real trouble.

  3. Hi Tony, I have been looking at your charts and wandering if it still makes any sense to live the wave 1 as is since the potential 2 of lesser degree has already overlapped the 4th. Wouldn’t be better to see the III becoming 1 and the IV becoming an a and the 1 becoming a b and now in c ?

  4. torehund says:

    Fracking elicits quakes, but critique is silenced and diverted toward coal. Quake escalation could be important as nat gas and oil is very supressed, looking for triggers that may hamper supplies.

    Good weekend to Tony and his pupils.

  5. I had to get a magnifying glass out to see that +div Mr C…Hope that 1993 holds but once again the market is close enough to 1951 to think it wont.I m rooting for it though (especially if it drags GDX with it).Good luck all.

  6. darn 1965 is back in view

  7. wildmarkets says:

    Tony- I see that you updated the SPX chart. Does that mean b wave bounce of C is yet to come?

  8. Thanks, Tony. Here’s my count of today’s action:

    Also posted some videos of live trades on my blog as well as an audio podcast–always welcome feedback.

    And Tony, was wondering if we could get a link back from the side of your blog — I’ve already linked to yours on our sidebar. Thanks – really appreciate it if you could.

  9. captbara says:

    It’s beginning to look a lot like X-wave..

  10. fotis2 says:

    Thanks Tony next week will not be boring for sure..

  11. Millan Tomic says:

    Fearful day, next 1-2 sessions critical as Trannies and XLE will either hold and bounce or decisively breakdown which likely will sink market toward low 1900s. Alternatively, yesterday and today MCCL oscillator barely declined to -105 (at the low day Monday was close to -300). So set up may be there for a positive divergence on a LL or outright breakdown. But in anyway has to come fast, likely early next week. Imagine people leaving for the holidays and market breaks down! 7.5 sessions left for year 5 100% success ratio (2058 pivot).

  12. Justyn Byrne says:

    The bullish argument isn’t over yet imo. I’ve borrowed one of Tony’s charts below.
    It could be that the activity since the high in November labelled as III in purple is actually a large bull flag which may be finished or could have a bit further down to go yet.

    Notice the possible divergence across 3 lower lows on the RSI on the same chart too.

    I know it isn’t EW but still a technical argument for us moving higher sharply soon.

    • wavediver says:

      Unless we go straight down, we ought to see a b before heading lower. Check out the hourly DOW chart.

    • tommyboys says:

      Yep that’s a bull flag targeting close to 2400. Money flow is good and leaders are holding up well. As aoon as this little correction ends we’ll rip to new highs.

    • torehund says:

      There is a finished abc on the Macd.
      If it is a-x(finished) and a c remaining the macd could drift to Sept lows.
      Still prefer the first option. Loots like a bull flag too 🙂

  13. reckless says:

    weird situation with advancers decliners on NYSE.
    12/17 – adv = 1108, dec = 2051
    12/18 – adv =1109, dec = 2051

  14. kvilia says:

    Thank you Tony – waiting for the weekly, just like my boss says 🙂
    I see some minor positives and now long RUT and XIV expecting some sort of bounce. We shall see whether it has legs. I have to say it’s been a heck of a week, which I enjoyed tremendously playing those wild swings.
    Have a great weekend!

  15. wildmarkets says:

    Tony, If 1993 lows get taken out, you still think that will be Wave 2 pullback? Thanks!

  16. rc1269 says:

    Thanks Tony

    I’ll be out all next week for vacay so [hopefully] you won’t see any posts from me. Thank you sir for your hospitality and generosity, as always.
    Also many thanks to the other fine contributors on this board.
    Best wishes to you all and your families these holidays!
    warm regards. -rc

  17. GYN LAB says:

    Thanks a lot as always! Just one question about retracement calculation: When we have 5th failure like Major 1, from which point (end of 3rd or 5th) should retracement calculation be based from? ex. in Major 1 from 2116 or 2104?

  18. “Short term support is at SPX 1993 and the 2070 pivot..” I THINK 2070 is a mistake Tony…

  19. bhuggs52 says:

    Thanks Tony. Interesting day. Suppose a possible extension of Major 2 would put us somewhere south in the mid-1900s. Seems like the mkts did get the Fed raise willies a bit. Look forward to your weekend update.

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