Thursday update

SHORT TERM: market rebounds, DOW +82

Overnight the Asian markets lost 0.3%. Europe opened higher but lost 0.2%. US index futures were higher overnight. At 8:30 weekly Jobless claims were reported higher: 282K v 269K, and Export (-0.6% v -0.3%)/Import (-0.2% v -0.3%) prices were reported lower. The market opened two points above yesterday’s SPX 2048 close, rose to 2055, then dipped to 2046 just past 10am. Then the market started to rally. At 10:30 the SPX hit 2063, pulled back to 2050 by 12:30, then hit 2068 by 2:30. At 2pm the Budget deficit was reported larger: -$64.6B v -$56.8B. After that the market sold off into the close, hitting SPX 2050 again, then bouncing to close at 2052.

For the day the SPX/DOW gained 0.35%, and the NDX/NAZ gained 0.45%. Bonds lost 11 ticks, Crude slid 70 cents, Gold dipped $1, and the USD was higher. Medium term support remains at the 2019 and 1973 pivots, with resistance at the 2070 and 2085 pivots. Yesterday, long term investor holdings were reported higher: 65.5% v 64.7%. Tomorrow: the PPI and Retail sales at 8:30, then Consumer sentiment and Business inventories at 10am.

The market opened higher today, dipped, and then rallied in what appears to be a completed a-b-c to the high of the day at SPX 2068. The rally from yesterday’s SPX 2037 low to 2068, looks similar to the recent rally from 2052 to 2080. Both advanced about 30 points and formed an a-b-c. In between these two rallies was that nasty 2.5 hour decline from SPX 2080 to 2037. Short term support is at SPX 2037 and the 2019 pivot, with resistance at the 2070 and 2085 pivots. Short term momentum spent most of the day above neutral and ended there. Best to your trading this choppy market!

MEDIUM TERM: downtrend probabilities rising

LONG TERM: bull market


About tony caldaro

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317 Responses to Thursday update

  1. Eric Wiseman says:

    Any particular reason why this area 2019-2000 can’t be the actual end of 4 of V?

    • budfox9450 says:

      Well, from a historical perspective – April and Dec are usually the price/weak months.
      I do not have a Bull market opinion….

  2. johnnymagicmoney says:

    I have a bad feeling another 150 points on the S&P500 lower and people are going to be readjusting their counts somehow someway saying the Bear has actually been in motion a while and some magical way they were able to substantiate a way to make the Bear count work. Some of the similarities to 08 are spooky

  3. simpleiam says:

    I’m wondering if this might be a flush, and we get some sort of bounce either just before close, or gap up on Monday. Price of crude isn’t going substantially lower, yet stocks increased their rate of fall. Just a thought…

  4. fotis2 says:

    So its official then Major 2 on….

  5. lunker1 says:

    Hi Tony, for Major 2 what would you expect to see Daily RSI down to at a minimum?

  6. The 2019 pivot is gone (2012 is the lower band). The next level of support might be 1980 (high end of the 1973 pivot).

  7. 1965 is next man up on Major 2 for SP 500


  8. fionamargaret says: interesting play might be purchasing Cameco at 13 – never know when uranium might come back in favour…

  9. AB Charts:
    The uptrend is toast. Since no one else has explicitly said this, I am champion of the world.

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