Tuesday update

SHORT TERM: another gap down opening, DOW -163

Overnight the Asian markets lost 1.0%. Europe opened lower and lost 1.7%. US index futures were sharply lower overnight, and the market gapped down to SPX 2058 at the open. The market had closed at SPX 2077 yesterday. It the first few minutes of trading the market dropped further to SPX 2053, rallied to 2063, and then declined to 2052 by 10:30. After that the market rallied to SPX 2074 by 11am. Then after a pullback to SPX 2059 by 1:30, the market bounced to 2071 just past 2pm. Another pullback took the market to SPX 2060 by 3:30, then a bounce ended the day at 2064.

For the day the SPX/DOW lost 0.75%, and the NDX/NAZ ended mixed. Bonds gained 2 ticks, Crude ended flat, Gold added $2, and the USD was lower. Medium term support drops to the 2019 and 1973 pivots, with resistance at the 2070 and 2085 pivots. Tomorrow: Wholesale inventories at 10am.

The market gapped down at the open for the second day in a row. This time, however, the OEW 2070 support pivot was broken as the market opened at SPX 2058. After some bouncing around early the market made a low at SPX 2052, and then rallied to 2074. After that the market went into another trading range for the rest of the day. With all the choppy action the medium term trend remains at an inflection point. Counts can be made for both bullish and bearish outcomes short term. But overall the downtrend scenario is gaining in probability. Short term support is at SPX 2052 and SPX 2042 with resistance at the 2070 and 2085 pivots. Short term momentum hit oversold this morning then bounced. Best to your trading this choppy market!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend at inflection point

LONG TERM: bull market

CHARTS: http://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

About tony caldaro

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248 Responses to Tuesday update

  1. buddyglove says:

    Yesterdays setup @2039 is working well so far (3rd time the charm) and I have trailed up to lock in 12 points. but I’m not going to add as the momo is sloppy. I could envision this getting prodded and poked up into the close. aimho and Good luck/health to all.

  2. fotis2 says:

    Am closed looks like it wants more down..

  3. kvilia says:

    I don’t like this. Selling my long SPX position and may pick up some UVXY after the close.

  4. mjtplayer says:

    This most recent rally has just overlapped the lows of yesterday – confirming yet another 3-wave move down, not 5 waves down.

    • aahmichael says:

      Not necessarily. If today’s high at 2080 was wave e of a triangle that began at 2019 on 11/16, then today’s decline was wave 1 to the downside. Yesterday’s low would be irrelevant to everything that has happened after today’s high was put in.

  5. aahmichael says:

    I have been short since last week at 2100, and I just covered it at 2048, as we just had a 3BR on the hourly. I will remain flat until I get another set up.

  6. blubrd67 says:

    Tony, do we have downtrend confirmation with S&P 2036?

  7. vannic99 says:

    pretty good divergence on the hourly, isn’t it?

  8. rc1269 says:

    speak of the devil (or at least of Petrobras, yesterday), Moody’s just put Brazil sov rating on review for downgrade (to junk)

  9. jeffbalin says:

    Seems to me 2040 should be a pivot. It’s quite popular.

  10. ariez5 says:

    15 min SPX + divergence, HYG not confirming selloff, NYAD pretty good, NYA doing better than other indices, put/call quite high, undercut of 2042 low.
    Just sayin, I’m a usual-bear, not a perma-bear.

  11. simpleiam says:

    Normally, I would expect to see a big sell-off before December rally kicks in. What’s different about this one is the price of Crude. Think it might have to stabilize, hopefully above $40, for any hard rally to start. JMO.

  12. buddyglove says:

    Got flushed again at b/e, but I’m undeterred, and seeing a pos/div, possible beartrap setup, and small bullish formation in the 5min and/ 1 min futz, so trying again here @2039 (very speculative) Glta.

  13. simpleiam says:

    Indicators I use on spx telling me that it keeps trying to catch a bid but lots of selling into anything that would remotely resemble a bounce.

  14. $cpce suggests we are near a ST low ….. or we crash!

  15. EL MATADOR says:

    This is fantastic. Here is my take from on Trannies wave structure. If, and I say if, Trannies take out August crash low marginally, it will record 5 impulsive wave down, thereby, confirming Mr M (broader market) has top and only the stubborn indexes like NDX, SPX, OEX etc will get on last blow hard rally. Trannies will rally in in their B-wave while the above mention will attempt to complete what remains of their P5. Take it or leave it but I’m loving this probability.

  16. manunidhi21 says:

    Does int ii scenario still breathing till 2019 ?

  17. ABchart says:

    ES daily chart: oversold here. May be bounce to 2052 max 2056.


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