weekend update


A wild week! The market started off the week at SPX 2090. After a tick up to SPX 2094 Monday morning the market pulled back to 2080 by the close. Tuesday we had a gap up to SPX 2099, a drop to 2087, then a rally to end the day at 2103. Wednesday the market ticked up to SPX 2104, then started to sell off. On Thursday the selloff hit a low of SPX 2042, and then the market rallied into a Friday high of 2094 before ending the week at 2092. For the week the SPX/DOW were +0.20%, the NDX/NAZ were +0.55%, and the DJ World index was down 0.40%. Economic reports for the week were mostly negative. On the uptick: construction spending, factory orders, the WLEI and the ADP. On the downtick: the Chicago PMI, ISM manufacturing/services, monthly payrolls, the GNP, plus the trade deficit and weekly jobless claims rose. Next week will be highlighted by Retail sales, Export/Import prices and the PPI.

LONG TERM: bull market

With the market entering gyration mode this week, four months into the current uptrend, it has reached another inflection point. The bull market remains intact for at least the next several weeks, at minimum, to possibly well into next year. Suggest reviewing the weekend updates, at least until this inflection point resolves itself.


This Cycle wave [1] bull market continues to unfold in five primary waves. Primary waves I and II completed in 2011. Primary waves III and IV completed this year in 2015. Primary V is currently underway from the August SPX 1867 low. When Primary V ends so will this 6+ year bull market. Historically when Cycle wave bear markets unfold, Cycle [2] should follow, the market has lost between 45% and 50% of its value. As a result the market is gradually reaching an important turning point. We will do our best to identify the turn when it arrives.

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend at inflection point

The uptrend from the Primary IV SPX 1867 low was unfolding as expected until it ran into some price turbulence this week. We had labeled four of the five waves at these levels, with the fifth wave underway SPX: 1993-1872-2116-2019-xxxx. This labeling still looks correct. Since there was the possibility that this uptrend could be the last uptrend of the bull market, we labeled these four waves as Major waves 1-2-3-4 with the 5th underway. This may still be correct.


At Wednesday’s high the SPX hit 2104, short of its third wave high at 2116, and well short of its bull market high at 2135. Then the SPX experienced its largest decline since the two big pullbacks of Major waves 2 and 4. With the NDX/NAZ reaching higher uptrend highs on Wednesday, this decline suggested a possible fifth wave failure in the SPX/DOW to end the uptrend. If this does actually occur, an unconfirmed downtrend is currently underway. This would also suggest that the bull market would extend well into 2016. So a downtrend at this stage of the bull market is not good medium term, but quite good longer term.


The other possibility is that the recent high at SPX 2104 was only Intermediate wave one of Major wave 5. This would suggest that Major wave 5 is subdividing, just like Major wave 3, and the bull market will probably end in the next several weeks if this uptrend makes all time new highs. Quite an interesting situation for bulls and bears alike. The key for anticipating which scenario will unfold appears to be the OEW 2070 pivot range (2063-2077). If the market can hold this pivot range, as it was recaptured on Friday, the uptrend will extend to higher highs. If not, a downtrend is likely underway with support at the 2019 pivot, SPX 1992, and the 1956 pivot. Medium term support is at the 2085 and 2070 pivots, with resistance at the 2131 and 2145 pivots.


The recent rally from our Major 4 low at SPX 2019 was unfolding as expected. We had four waves up SPX: 2067-2046-2097-2080 into last week with another rally underway. We had labeled these four waves as: i-ii-1-2. This week, however, the market opened at SPX 2094, dipped to 2080, rallied to 2099, dipped to 2087, rallied to 2104, then had that steep selloff. Our screening of the short term price movement missed that 2099-2087 pullback, or else we would have noticed the short term diagonal triangle that had formed. However, on the price movement we knew a drop below SPX 2080 was a warning, and a drop below SPX 2070 would not be good short term. Since the sharp three wave selloff (2067-2078-2042) did look like the result of a diagonal triangle or a fifth wave failure this appears to fit.


After the selloff hit a low around 2:30 Thursday the market rallied a bit, gapped up on Friday and rallied quite strongly. This presents us with two possible counts and the reason for the inflection point. One: a fifth wave failure at SPX 2104 and a new downtrend underway. Two: an Intermediate wave one of Major wave 5 at SPX 2104, with an Intermediate wave two at SPX 2042. Should scenario one unfold the bull market will probably extend well into next year, as this uptrend would only be Major wave 1 of Primary V. Should scenario two unfold, and the market makes all time new highs, which is likely, then the bull market will probably end in the next several weeks. Short term support is at the 2085 and 2070 pivots, with resistance at the SPX 2104 and SPX 2116. Short term momentum hit extremely oversold on Thursday and spiked to overbought on Friday.


Asian markets were mostly lower on the week for a net loss of 0.5%.

European markets were all lower for a net loss of 3.7%.

The Commodity equity group were all lower losing 1.5% on the week.

The DJ World index is still in an uptrend but lost 0.4% on the week.


Bonds continue to uptrend but lost 0.4% on the week.

Crude is still in a downtrend and lost 4.3% on the week.

Gold looks like it may be uptrending and gained 2.7% on the week.

The USD looks like it is downtrending and lost 1.7% on the week.


Monday: Consumer credit at 3pm. Wednesday: Wholesale inventories. Thursday: weekly Jobless claims, Export/Import prices, and the Budget deficit. Friday: the PPI, Retail sales, Business inventories, and Consumer sentiment. Best to your weekend and week!

CHARTS: http://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

About tony caldaro

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341 Responses to weekend update

  1. Lets see if everything that I learned from Tony’s site works or not on this call.

    If i was a betting man, I would say that we bottom here and go up. How far up don’t know. But we do bottom today for the near term. What say Tony.

  2. Top in the market when everyone and there mother decides to start a paid blog subscription. Thanks Tony for all you do. Never a need to go anywhere else as most here already know it.

  3. SPX Levels to watch ; a break of 2066 would be bearish Target 2040’s or lower a break of 2076 would provide a quick 20 points to the upside

  4. mjtplayer says:

    Today’s selloff on the SPY is still on pace for less than 1/2 of Friday’s volume; QQQ today on pace for 40% less volume than Friday’s rally. The market is holding-up well given oil is trading below the Aug lows, nat gas pushing towards the $2 area again and the energy sector is getting smoked – but the DOW & SPX are not collapsing and do not have the volume one would expect given the points drop.

    So far, still looks like a minor 2 pullback at the 50% retrace area of minor 1. Below the .618 retrace at SPX 2,061 and things become uncertain again.

    FYI: The possible alt major 4 triangle count cannot be overlooked, as this could also be an “E” wave to complete that pattern.


  5. Xinzhu, it was pre-announced on November 10 and I even let my readers largely determine the fee and how/when to proceed. So you were several weeks late. Sorry you seem so confused and obsessed, please seek the necessary help. Best wishes and take care!

  6. simpleiam says:

    LMAO! Got to love it! I’ll save my drumming vids for this thread, later this evening, when nobody’s using it anymore, AFTER market’s been closed for a while. Sure don’t want you made at me! 🙂

  7. Regarding ‘nail the market’. The only thing I nail is I knew FRB would start his pathetic fee based “service”, 2 weeks before his ‘announcement’. LOL
    This is so funny.

  8. torehund says:

    ..there is a complex 3 down on the rut from recent top, including the recent x- wave.

  9. Igor says:

    My thoughts on FRB paid blog:
    – nothing wrong with a paid blog if there are people willing to pay for the service;
    – it’s not quite ethical to use Tony’s blog to promote one’s paid service, but it’s up to Tony to decide;
    – from my perspective it requires not less than 10 years of trading to start understanding how the market works, after that one can decide if he/she can share something valuable for others. Most traders with 10 years of experience remain humble knowing that the trading is not a cakewalk. People with less experience under the belt are more eager to start a paid service to compensate the unstable cash flow from the trading activity.

    • aahmichael says:

      I agree. FRB comes off like he’s a kid in his 20s with very little professional trading experience. I’ve never seen anyone get so excited about a winning trade that makes a 10 point S&P profit. Also, professional traders let their track record speak for itself.

      • Why so obsessed Michael? Not healthy, please seek help right away.

        Track record is available for all to see at my blog, most love it, you SAY you don’t but KEEP COMING BACK. So funny. Be well.

        • aahmichael says:

          A couple of market calls on an internet blog does not qualify as a track record. A professional track record consists of a minimum of 5 years of audited brokerage statements.

          I’m fairly new to Tony’s board. I’ve only been here since September. When I saw the preposterous claims that you were making on this board about your magic indicator, then I decided to monitor your blog once it began. I wanted to give you the benefit of the doubt. I’m always willing to learn. However, it only took two weeks before your claim that you had never had a trade be underwater on an overnight basis to be proven false. Your sell signal on 11/17 was underwater for 2 weeks. It never had an open profit of even one penny. The drawdown was 54 S&P points. The market came back to break even briefly last week, however, according to your blog, you’re still in that trade, because you never posted that you were closing that trade. Furthermore, since you say that you only trade options, then even if you had exited that trade, then it was a losing trade, no matter when you would have closed it out. The problem isn’t that you had a losing trade. Losing trades are an important part of being a successful trader. The problem is that you flat out lie about your trading results.

          My purpose of posting my observations is to protect those who don’t know better.

          • LBSPYtrader says:

            I was able to double up on my Put position and come out with a profit.
            I’m done posting about this.

          • Michael, you are clearly confused and obsessed and aren’t making any sense – the track record is clear for all to see on my blog, time-stamped by WordPress, the facts are obvious to everyone but you and a few of the nuts, the other readers see things clearly and don’t need you to protect them, which notion makes you look so delusional, don’t you realize that? Stop embarrassing yourself and I encourage you to focusing on improving yourself instead of obsessing over others, you’ll be a much happier, healthier person if you heed that wise advice. Hang in there and get well.

        • themoose101 says:

          FRB – You may have what will prove to be a profitable blog; only time will tell as there aren’t yet enough data points with which to analyze your system. My only objection is that you won’t come clean with your identity. With the help of a couple of other bloggers, we’ve proven without any doubt that you are CatchTheMoves, yet you refuse to own up to it. What is it that you’re so afraid of? That your old system didn’t work well and that you’ve come up with something new? So what? You seem to have an answer for everyone’s comments here on this blog except this. Don’t you understand that no answer IS the answer? Stop hiding and just make the admission or confession, whatever you want to call it. I don’t think this is an unreasonable request.

      • LBSPYtrader says:

        I have been trading for a long time and I still get excited over a $500 per contract winning trade.

    • Thanks Igor. Well put. Only correction is that I haven’t promoted my blog here for several weeks, only when one of the obsessed nuts bring it up – turning lemons into lemonade, etc. Other readers are also amused by the fact that these nuts talk trash but KEEP VISITING MY BLOG. Enough said. Like you, I enjoy the back and forth but I only do so in response, which is entirely proper and a lot of readers tell me that they like it. Hopefully the few walnuts here will get a life and focus on improving themselves instead of being obsessed with others, but if not I’m happy to confront their bad behavior and keep making lemonade.

      Btw, people are willing and even excited to pay a nominal fee because of the real-time trades posted and time-stamped by wordpress, 7 out of 7 were profitable – 6 IMMEDIATELY and 1 took two weeks. If you come across a better performance ANYWHERE, do share it with us. Not boasting, just stating the facts, which can be verified at http://www.FinancialReportsBlog.wordpress.com for those interested. Best wishes!

    • H D says:

      I had a set up go 35:39 this year just keeping my eyes at 10 & 2 before I stopped counting. I never once thought about selling it. I would caution anyone that trades a mechanical system based on the previous bull market characteristics going forward. That is just my bias. You will need to adapt, always.

  10. GYN LAB says:

    Good afternoon!
    Quick drop to 50% at 2067, just what I was waiting for (only that it was too quick – expecting to meander all day today and tomorrow morning low here for turnaround Tuesday…) Anyway took on long at 2068 for anticipation of 3 of int iii, a good R/R here IMO

  11. uncle10 says:

    Thanks Mr. T.
    World getting stranger by the minute….
    Big boy market is here to stay. 2016 is going to be a doozy.
    gl all and be nice!!🙂

  12. H D says:

    GM all, nice little stop run under 2070P, watch em they can hurt.

  13. ABchart says:

    “Market Profile scenario: support at 2080 and 2072. One or the other sends at 2095. If 2072 broke, target 2055. But I favor a bounce to 2095.”

    Not bull here. Resistance now at 2080 target 2055. Please see my charts, I am not bull in short term, talking about à bounce that did not happen.
    Session over for me.

    Good luck.

  14. quantmaven says:

    Triangle theory still holds for now…

  15. Kudo to Red dragon !! Pearl harbor for the bulls today as you predicted last friday:))) (i was in your camp)

    • fishonhook says:

      He was taking about a terrorist attack . Not the market! his analysis was wrong. Wish you guys would stick to one ID so you dont back slap each other so much. It is rather puerile.

  16. Well I closed my puts and sitting on the sidelines and watching at this time …

  17. nickokc says:

    FRB guy nailed again and again

    • Lee X says:

      No need to revel in that, we all have losers.

      • Thanks Lee, appreciate that, but he meant that I nailled it correctly, saying Friday afternoon that the market would reverse downward today ass well as what can be expected for tomorrow. Always appreciate your posts, best oil calls I’ve ever seen.

        • aahmichael says:

          To be more accurate, you said that it could go down…or it could go up. You said that the odds were 75/25 that it would go down. How can someone say they nailed it, when they said it could go either way, and therefore, no trading signal was given?
          What you have failed to mention is that you also said that the market would go UP last Thursday (12/3,) but the DOW dropped 300 points that day.

          • Michael, you are clearly in the 1% who can’t seem to grasp it. I never said that the market “would go up oon Thursday”, rather, just before Thursday’s close, when you and others were changing your counts (again) and calling for SPX 1900’s (see the comments section here on Wed and Thurs Updates), I wrote that the market would go Up on Friday and purchased slightly out-of-the-money calls. All in advance and time-stamped by wordpress. Clear and obvious to almost everyone but you. Anyone who goes to http://www.FinancialReportsBlog.wordpress.com can judge for themselves, the vast majority love and appreciate and benefit from it and say it’s unlike anything they’ve ever seen. To each his own. Try to focus more on improving your own method versus obsessing over other people, not healthy. Hang in there!

            • aahmichael says:

              Trust me…I totally get it. Here are your exact words that you posted on your blog just prior to the close on 12/2: “While the market could continue to fall unabated, I would not be surprised to see a green day tomorrow (Thursday).” Needless to say, you did not get a green day last Thursday. The Dow declined 300 points. Of course, if the Dow had gone up last Thursday, you would have been on this board proclaiming that you nailed it.

          • You just demonstrated that you DON’T get it. Thankfully the vast majority do and are benefitting nicely, why does that bother you so much? Very bizarre and unhealthy behavior, take care and be well.

      • nickokc says:

        Lee I was just giving credit when it’s due that’s all.

  18. buddyglove says:

    There is a good r/r setup forming here imo, and I like the way the futz price is behaving so am long here @ 2070 (very speculative). Expecting a strong performance over the next 2 weeks. Aimho and Glta.

    • mjtplayer says:

      Volume on Thursday’s drop was on the heavy side, but slightly heavier volume on Fridays ramp. Today – volume is barely average and running at 1/2 the pace of Friday’s rally, that’s bullish.

      There are 4 instances in which I don’t short the market (or go long volatility), 2 of those are coming in the next 2 weeks:

      #1) Don’t be short into a long holiday weekend
      #2) Don’t be short into a Fed meeting

  19. blackjak100 says:

    It’s early but this does not look like a minor 2 decline due to speed & size of decline. Looks like major 2 with an outside chance of a triangle. Both expect downwards movement below 2042 in the near term.

  20. sPX 2073 well now we are exactly at the level of the “mario friday’s crime”

  21. Lee X says:

    Thanks Tony

    I know it can be lost in all the noise here but you have given some very good ” squiggle” calls in your replies to fellow posters, including what is going on this morning in SPX.
    The quiet man has the loudest voice😉

  22. Jim Guthery says:

    Got out of UVXY today down $1.50 from Fridays trade, but I’ll take the loss and sit on sidelines.

  23. ABchart says:

    ES: bounce at any time from 2072/2075 target 2095/100.

    • AB qu’est ce qui te fait presager D’UN TEL REBOND?

      • quantmaven says:

        Je crois à un rebond mais rien de significatif de même.

      • ABchart says:

        Market Profile.
        – Analyse des volumes: pression acheteuse ou vendeuse
        – Value area
        – Distribution normale: marché à son prix (balanced)
        – Pression acheteuse ou vendeuse (pourcentage): voir les imbalances target
        – Vérifier les tails (extensions)

        Bref, c’est une méthode d’analyse à part entière, avec des set-up achat ou short que j’utilise en complément d’Elliott.

    • chrisk44342 says:

      The only thing reflecting a bounce is price support. everything else looks terrible if you’re a bull (:

  24. SP500 15-min cash chart, now shows overlap on wave ‘a’ of (B) up; in the triangle count. Count as per weekend blog post remains the same, at present. Chart below.

    SP500 (15 Min)  12_7_2015 TC

    • blackjak100 says:

      With the size & speed of this down move, probability has increased of a triangle to 35% IMO. This does not look like a minor 2 rather major 2.

      • Price is now below the prior b wave, and impulse labeling is applied. The symbols “>” mean that these waves can continue until upward retracement waves are in progress. There are now a small degree ‘five waves down’, and wave c of the triangle lower (if that’s what it winds up being) should be a five-wave sequence itself.

        SP500 (15 Min)  12_7_2015 TC2

    • budfox9450 says:

      Nice SP charts Joe, but what about crude oil?

  25. After Fridays insane runup this is normal.Pure stock market mechanics.Shows how much Friday was short covering.

  26. gtoptions says:

    Thanks Tony
    SPY ~ WPP @208.47 ~ WR1 @ 210.87 ~ WS1 @ 206.08
    GL All

  27. mjtplayer says:

    Oil now less than $1 from the Aug lows of $37.75 – seems all but certain we’ll test it, but will it hold?? If/when $37.75 breaks, the downside target is $31 – $35.

    H&S downside target = $35
    2009 lows = $33
    H&S 1.5x projection = $31

    • ABchart says:

      Thank you Red.
      Market Profile scenario: support at 2080 and 2072. One or the other sends at 2095. If 2072 broke, target 2055. But I favor a bounce to 2095.

  28. ABchart says:

    Fitch anticipate 4 rate hikes before end of 2016.

  29. themoose101 says:

    It has been confirmed. financialreportsblog IS, in fact, the SAME person who came here under the former name of CatchTheMoves. This is just meant to be a word of caution. Please do be careful whom you choose to follow. Do your own due diligence.

    • argento1 says:

      His calls are actually good and provide advice freely?


      • themoose101 says:

        Argento – Yes, his service is free for the moment, but that will change in January. My concern is for those who feel he is some sort of genius, that they will follow him like he’s the pied piper. I think it would only be right for him to admit he was here under another name previously and that he’s changed his blog as well. The fact that he won’t do that means he wants folks to believe he’s someone new and different, not the guy who ended up misleading people before and then closing down his ‘shop’.

  30. tomasso60 says:

    this link is to show the monthly Goldman cash commodity index going back to the 1970’s
    you will note sitting on major support, so, maybe there could be moves in the commodity sector(s).

  31. ABchart says:

    My update is not ready and it is late. I will finish that tomorrow. Note that I am in the Major2 camp, target 1992 or 1962 by 2 weeks or 11/12 sessions. Tomorrow we can still go a little higher from 2075/80 to +/-2100 (because CAC need 4820 and DAX 10950). But it could fall on Tuesday and especially Wednesday and Thursday (2000/10), bounce to 2040, then 1992 or 1962.
    Good night everyone.

  32. jobjas says:

    Long term analysis of SPX – classic EW

  33. Umblu59 says:

    Just Another lurker. Anyone else see the pennant pattern emerging from Oct to now? If it comes through break of 2110 should see target 2330. Way to many peeps thinking it’s gonna end soon and stacking up on shorts. Could see a 10% bump from short covering and turn down between q1 and q2 2017. Just my 2 cents.

  34. mike7x says:

    12% is at lower levels during 2015. A year-end (Santa rally) looks promising. But, will it end the bull? Tony will let us know…

  35. simpleiam says:

    Hoping tensions ease up here. Making my last post for today a fun one, hopefully.

  36. financialreportsblog will start to charge. This is EXACTLY I posted like 2 weeks ago. My post was deleted later, I don’t know why. Here is what financialreportsblog has to say:

    I intend to keep this blog free for a bit longer but when it becomes a subscription-based (likely in January) I will share some valuable general information on how I structure Options trades so as to avoid the whole “time decay” issue

    LOL, why am I not surprised. Please ignore this guy. You will be broken if you follow him.

    • ABchart says:

      I am not surprised either. Last October he wrote that he earned so much money that he might be in the ranking of Forbes in early 2016😉

      • Might take longer than 2016, certainly going in the right direction, have other business interests which would account for much of it, hope you’re doing well too but your tone suggests otherwise. Take care and try not to let yourself get too obsessed with others, not healthy.

        • ABchart says:

          I am a realistic trader. Gains and losses. More gains than losses. Never picked up the lowest or highest point in 20 years, I leave that for the upstarts like you. And even if it happens, I take that as a coincidence, because to last in this market, we must remain always humble. This is not your case🙂

    • Igor says:

      Well, the simplest way to avoid the time decay is to enter a spread for a directional play. Buy ITM options and sell OTM options. Properly chosen strikes allow to profit even if the market remains flat. Disadvantages of this strategy is limited profit if the market moves farther than you thought. Delta of a spread is less than delta of outright options, therefore, the spread gains profit slower than outright options if the market moves fast in your direction. Sharing this information completely free. You are welcome🙂

      • Hi Igor, nice to have you back lately. Your technique is okay but like you said, you limit your upside/profit potential. With my method you don’t. Each person should do as he/she deems best, I like mine much better, no upside limited, etc.

        • Igor says:

          Well, every options strategy has its advantages and disadvantages. If you buy deep ITM options, you can avoid almost all time decay with the unlimited profit if you predicted a market direction right. But if you are wrong and the market goes against you, deep ITM options will lose more than a spread. You are right that it’s up to a trader to accept risk and choose a strategy when you deal with uncertainty.
          Nice to have you back too, Catch.

    • Xinzhu, then why do you keep coming to my blog and sending crazy emails/comments such that I’ve had to block you? Maybe it’s a language or cultural barrier, maybe you’re just nuts, but the subscription model was pre-announced back on Nov 10 and I left the pricing and how to proceed largely up to my readers so I think the only one who is surprised is you. Stop embarrassing yourself. If you don’t like my blog, why do you visit it so often? Enough said.

      For anyone who would like to read the entire post and not just a snippet, and all past posts for that matter, you are welcome to visit http://www.FinancialReportsBlog.wordpress.com – 99% of people seem to really like and understand it based on all of the feedback I’ve received.

      Thanks as always Tony for all of your time and effort.

      • Shame on you. You use this platform to promote your fee based “service”.
        You should be banned.

        • Based on their feedback, the vast majority of people who visit http://www.FinancialReportsBlog.wordpress.com say it’s very helpful and beneficial to them – shame on you for wanting to deprive them of that and your blatant dishonesty/unfactuality. I don’t promote it, rather when the few obsessed types here mention and lie about it, I merely give other readers the opportunity to come to their own conclusion – why are you so afraid of or bothered by that? Very strange.

          • those vast majority of people will lose money, for sure.
            You are a guy who buys calls when market is down, buys puts when market is up. No need to say more.
            From the beginning I knew you try to make money from those naive beginners who try to search the holy grail of the market. If you will be listed in Forbes (this has to be a joke, right? LOL), why do you bother to charge like $50-$100 per month ? (I assume your monthly fee is less than $100, LOL)
            get a life, man.

          • You reveal yourself Xinzhu. No honor or honesty. I care about those 99%, not the few nuts. Be well, Xinzhu, be well.

        • Xinzhu, I agree. I think that FRB and DSoble have nothing of value, and I just scroll past their BS because they’re not worth my time. I focus on those individuals and comments that offer helpful market analysis, not blowing hot air to boost their own egos. There are many exceptionally talented people on Tony’s site, and I’d like to say “thank you” to all of them for helping the rest of us.

    • purplember says:

      financial, if your getting so RICH off your trades, why are you CHARGING people. Spread the wealth and be thankful for what you have been given.

      • It’s the principle, not the principal.

        Many people have said that they’ve made a lot of money from my calls, why would you NOT want to share a fraction of that for the considerable time I’m spending? If you are that unthoughtful or don’t IMMEDIATELY see the immense value of my work, please do not subscribe. No worries either way, do whatever is in your best interest!

  37. simpleiam says:

    Off Topic:
    For those who might not quite understand who the players are where Taliban, Al Qaeda, & ISIS are concerned, and their origin, here’s a short summary that’s pretty good; the best I’ve seen, thus far. IMO, everyone needs a very basic understanding of how this all came about, and the link below provides a pretty good primer in the time alotted. I don’t necessarily agree with all the commentary at the very end, but the explanation of these Groups is very good. Had forgotten about it until it was re-run this weekend.

    • torehund says:

      Destabilize a society, and a strongman awakens, hiding under any ism suitable. Difficult to say what is the worst out of commun, fac, or islamism, its a reset of power into survival mode, residing at the opposite pole of trust and democracy.
      Things would have slumbered quietly if it had not been for mankind and nature itself, with commodities and shipping flatlining for another 14-20 years.
      But this Goaty bull will probably have it his way, by destructing production and rising demand due to wars and global cooling.
      I think of the waves as a pattern that will play itself out at either side of the macd zero line, but what if 14 years of A flatlining W-3 all of a sudden goes vertical…..thats why the Bdi all of a sudden may climb to 36 000.

    • wavediver says:

      CNN production. “… but Fox News is a favorite of ISIS.” It took 22 minutes to get to the real purpose of the video: the war for cable news ratings.

    • Hugh Jazole says:

      The important thing is that Saddam is gone.

      • Saddam, his two ruthless sons, Osama bin Laden, Zarqawi, Qadafi, and countless other murderous minions whose names never made it into our vocabulary. Sad that our public failed to see genius in the (former) strategy of creating and maintaining the engagement area in the Middle East (where it belongs). By promptly (and popularly) ending wars in Iraq & Afghanistan, the engagement areas have shifted to Europe and back to the US (see: 9/11). That said, I was glad to leave those areas because we were clearly not trying to win – we were just there to serve as targets and to try not to lose.
        The terror experienced in Western Societies over the past few months is very likely to escalate in frequency and intensity – due in large part to the reasons cited above and Obama/Sec Clinton’s catastrophic and intentional destabilization across N. Africa/Middle East (see: Arab Spring, Benghazi, Syria, ISIS, EU Refugee crisis). So much for diplomacy – but hey, this Prez delivers speeches a whole lot better than the last one. Oh, he fixed that healthcare crisis too.

    • purplember says:

      bottomline: usa either has an incompetent leader or someone not fighting for us.

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