Friday update

SHORT TERM: gap up and go Friday, DOW +370

Overnight the Asian markets lost 1.4%. Europe opened lower and lost 0.4%. US index futures were higher overnight. At 8:30 monthly Payrolls were reported lower: 211K v 271K, the Unemployment rate was reported unchanged at 5%, and the Trade deficit widened: -$43.9B v -$40.8B. The market gapped up at the open to SPX 2058 and continued to rally. The market had closed at SPX 2050 yesterday. Just before 10am the SPX hit 2071, dipped to 2065 just past 10am, then rallied to 2079 by 11am. After a pullback to SPX 2070 by noon the market moved even higher. Heading into the last hour of trading the SPX hit 2094 then dipped to end the week at 2092 — +2 points for the week.

For the day the SPX/DOW gained 2.10%, and the NDX/NAZ gained 2.25%. Bonds gained 14 ticks, Crude dropped $1.00, Gold rallied $23, and the USD was higher. Medium term support jumps up to the 2085 and 2070 pivots, with resistance once again at the 2131 and 2145 pivots. Today the WLEI was reported higher: 48.8% v 48.o%, and the Q4 GNP was reported lower: +1.5% v +1.8%.

The market gapped at the open today, after yesterday’s late afternoon pullback low of SPX 2042, and continued to rally throughout the day. As bad as yesterday’s pullback was, today’s rally was even better. We noted a missed wave in the recent rally from SPX 2070 to 2104 this morning, sorry I am not perfect, and noted a diagonal triangle on the hourly chart. This allowed the possibility of a subdividing Major wave 5 into five Intermediate waves. We then posted the updated labels on the SPX hourly chart. Details in the weekend update. Short term support is at the 2085 and 2070 pivots, with resistance at SPX 2104 and SPX 2116. Short term momentum spiked from extremely oversold yesterday to overbought during today’s big rally. Best to your weekend!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend

LONG TERM: bull market


About tony caldaro

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70 Responses to Friday update

  1. financialreportsblog will start to charge. This is EXACTLY I posted like 2 weeks ago. My post was deleted later, I don’t know why. Here is what financialreportsblog has to say:

    I intend to keep this blog free for a bit longer but when it becomes a subscription-based (likely in January) I will share some valuable general information on how I structure Options trades so as to avoid the whole “time decay” issue

    LOL, why am I not surprised. Please ignore this guy. You will be broken if you follow him.

    • Xinzhu, your unhealthy obsession and posts make you sound imbalanced, please seek the appropriate help right away.

      Those interested are welcome to visit and see for yourself, all posts are available since the blog’s inception and time-stamped by wordpress; a few like Xinzhu don’t seem to be able to grasp things but almost everyone else really likes and benefits from my blog based on their feedback.

  2. J.Wenger says:

    Thanks Tony. Since this is the bull that won’t die, an extension into 2016 seems to be the safe bet…unless this time it truly is different! As always, be prepared.

  3. rashmiagarwal29 says:

    Dear Tony,great write up on the US markets.Do you track Indian markets, especially nifty?Plz post your analysis if you do.

  4. Praveen Vishnu Shamain says:

    Ratio of SPX Equal weighted index (SPXEW) and SPX, shows how “strongly manipulated” this market is. This does not mean market will start falling apart from tomorrow, but is definitely not safe for investors. Traders enjoy till the music is playing.

  5. Sheesh guys… you spend more time attacking people then trying to make money! No one is 100% accurate (except Goldman Sucks, who is an “insider” and never loses), and if they are they certainly don’t advertise their calls for free on some public forum, blog or tweeter feed.

    People here do their best to help others the best they can. I for one have done well to be 50% accurate until from the time I started my blog in 2009 up until 2014 when I finally lost my bearish bias and just let the charts tell me where we were likely to go next.

    I also added the ES Futures to my calculations, which greatly improved my accuracy. I finally “got it” that “they” use the futures market to manipulate the charts overnight to the point where the bearish outlook on the SPX gets over ruled by the bullish outlook on the Futures.

    Anyway, everyone is here to learn and make money… aren’t we? Why are we attacking people when they might get a call wrong from time to time?

    You know I talk about the “Darkside of the Market” as I know for a FACT that’s it’s 100% controlled and manipulated by the people that run it. You don’t have to believe that of course as that only my opinion.

    But I will add that there are many people sent out there on the internet to feed “dis-information” to any blog that is trying to help free the sheep from poverty. Remember that the elite that run this world can’t allow the slaves (that’s you and I) to get rich and free themselves.

    I’ve had CIA agents (Trolls) on my site back in 2010 when I started exposing FP’s (Fake Prints) to the readers. That was something they didn’t want people to know about. But I got lucky and caught a few of them and posted them publicly, only to see them hit at a later time in the future.

    Some of you are just that… “agents” out to mislead people by attacking traders that get it right by figuring out SkyNet. Tony is nice and doesn’t say much but I suspect he knows his site is watched closely by one of the Alphabet Soup agencies.

    Anyway, for those of you that aren’t part of “them” please take the extra effort to post for your first time instead of just reading and watching…. never posting. I’d bet that less then 10% of Tony’s reader’s actually post… the rest are just lurkers.

    If that’s you… please support the posters you like and don’t let these agents mislead you. They don’t want you to profit from the coming crash (whenever it comes… 2nd half of 2016 is my prediction, but can change).

    They will do everything in their power to mislead you. Don’t fall for it. Do your own research and NEVER follow any one person exclusively. I will be WRONG on my calls from time to time. Yes, I probably 80-90% accurate now on the overall direction and various support and resistance levels.

    But I’m not perfect and will miss calls… just like everyone else. I’ve been post my thoughts here in my morning update charts for a long time to try to help others with the most likely outcome for that day.

    I don’t do it for money… I just try help others. If my charts are useless to everyone, please tell me and I’ll stop posting them… pretty simple.

    If you to bash me, FRB, or anyone else… please post your thoughts too so we can bash you back when you wrong. Otherwise, say something positive or nothing at all (except for you agents as I know you have job to do… and making people lose money is that job, so bash away! LOL!)

  6. themoose101 says:

    FRB – Some time ago, maybe a year or two, you had come to this site under the name of CatchTheMoves. If it’s not obvious to some, it is to me and a couple of friends who read Tony’s blog. We know this purely based on how you communicate. Why not just admit that up front and tell people you’re crunching numbers differently and have ‘opened’ a new blog under a new name. That would at least clear the air a bit, don’t you think?

  7. Sandra Dons says:

    I don’t understand ….we still have the 2200 target or things are changed?

  8. torehund says:

    Thanks to Tony and all contributors, bears as well as bulls.
    After that road block yesterday we all see that the Euro-zone needs to keep the Euro down to fuel the bull, and as dismal as the prospects are there, thats of no real concern yet.
    Geologically there is lots of rage coming our way, latest is Etna in Italy, and I am not a bit surprised…Turkey, Greece, and Italy is swarmed with earthquakes, and the pressure they generate has to be relieved by the accessible vents.
    Looking at the Comp, weekly MACD I would expect the C to be up next as the A and B might be done. That would bring the Macd up to the declining line of tops, as first real resistance. Thats a significant price hike from where we are today 🙂
    Bulk is as difficult as picking a bottom will ever be, the good comps like DSX are the last ones to find its ultimate bottom, it could be right here. War, volcanoes, mass migration, hasn’t stirred its slumber yet, maybe winter will ?

  9. Lee X says:

    Thanks Tony

  10. timmy321 says:

    Is it me or someone else also thinks the same that this guy at financialreportsblog comments on his own posts and then answers them for the most part. Most of his audience should be from Tony’s blog and yet I do not see very many familiar posters there.

    • lunker1 says:

      the familiar poster’s here don’t drink snake oil

    • CampFreddie says:

      Timmy321, did frb call this rally today ? just curious.

      • pooch77 says:


      • aahmichael says:

        Well, sort of yes, and sort of no. He has been short since his last sell signal on 11/17 at 2050. At the open on Wednesday, that position had a 54 point drawdown. (yikes.) Then the 2 day decline brought that position back to break-even as of last night’s close. He claimed that the decline brought that sell signal “back to life.” (whatever that means.) He did not issue a buy signal. However, he did say that he thought the market would bounce today, but he advised all but the most aggressive traders not to play it. He said he was going to pick up some cheap slightly out-of-the money Calls that expired today for a 1-day play, for one of his “mathematical strategies/sub-accounts” (whatever that means.) He did buy the calls, but he got rid of them 15 minutes after today’s open. His posts have become very confusing. As of this morning, it seemed like he was still on the 11/17 sell signal, but that he was going to buy some calls on the side in some different account.

        • LBSPYtrader says:

          It is possible to play both sides of the market at the same time.

        • aahmichael, you are clearly confused. I encourage anyone reading this to simply go to and see for yourself. 99% of people find it very clear and helpful based on all of the input I’ve received; a few get confused like aahmichael. Yet strangely even they keep coming to my blog day after day so that says it all as I’m sure you’ll agree.

          • aahmichael says:

            No. I’m not confused at all. What I stated are absolute facts. At no time on your blog have you ever closed out your short position from the sell signal given on 11/17 at SPX 2050. The reason I have posted this is to protect those who might read your promotions about your system and not know better.

          • themoose101 says:

            FRB – I would ask you again to at least come clean with the OEW group and just tell people you’ve changed your name from CatchTheMoves, a name you used a couple years back or so and have opened a new blog under this new moniker of financialreportsblog. That would be quite transparent. Don’t you think the people here deserve that?

        • themoose101 says:

          He’s posted here before a couple years ago under an old name of CatchTheMoves. His blog wasn’t successful so he closed it down and has since reopened it under this new name. Kudos to him if his model is better, but I did ask him to just come clean and own up to who he was prior to the change. It would be helpful to those who invested with him based on his signals previously.

          • aahmichael says:

            His last sell signal had a 54 point drawdown in the S&P, and it might get worse because he has yet to close that trade out. I don’t care how successful any of his previous signals have been, as I don’t know anybody who would be willing to sit through that kind of drawdown. I also find it hard to believe that anybody would put their faith and risk their money in a black box system.

      • Freddie, all predictions are posted in real-time, BEFORE a move takes place, no constantly “adjusting counts” necessary, etc. – blog is at

        I rolled it out on Nov 3 and correctly predicted TO THE DAY the top of that move and all 3 moves lower THE VERY DAY BEFORE in each case. I then went long just after the open on Nov 16, nailing the absolute low TO THE DAY (see that pattern? so does almost everyone else). I was three days early on the next call but that too was profitable when closed out yesterday, as usual. My indicator then called the absolute high TO THE DAY on Nov 20, and when the few nuts here were bullish, calling for new highs Thanksgiving week, etc., I kept saying that the Nov 20 highs would stand and of course they did.

        Then yesterday I turned bullish when many here were just turning bearish, adjusting their counts for the umpteenth time, expecting SPX 1900’s for the current move, etc. (Just look at the comments section of Tony’s Wed & Thurs Updates) while I was buying Call Options which expired today for 100+% gains. Some here will talk about trades after the fact but everyone knows that if it wasn’t posted in real-time it almost certainly never happened.

        Many of Tony’s readers (99+% based on the feedback they’ve shared with me, Tony can certainly confirm the exact percentage) don’t post here at all because of the few but loud nuts, but they know what’s up and who’s what; once I realized this, I stopped responding to the nuts in large part, waste of time, beyond help, and they don’t fool anyone so why bother. Have a great weekend!

        Thanks Tony, you are definitely not included in this comment and do a great job. Anyone can miss something (a wave, a call, etc.) so don’t beat yourself up over it, none of us is perfect, I know I’m not. Keep up the good work.

        • uncle10 says:

          Ignore the haters FRB. We appreciate your help and sharing with us.

          • LBSPYtrader says:

            There are some incredible EW posters on this blog. They are able to see waves, wiggles, pivots that I will never see. These are always changing for me to keep track of. IMHO, FRB posts are easier for me to follow. My SPY Calls did very well today. Thanks FRB.

          • My pleasure LBSpy. Based on the posts here yesterday and last night, most were caught totally off-guard by today’s rally, which I think partly explains their embarrassing behavior now. I can tell in two seconds which posters make money, lose money, and don’t even trade with real money. Funny.

      • CampFreddie says:

        Many thanks below for replies.

    • Timmy, you just took paranoia to the next level. Amazing what some minds can think of. And scary, lol.

      Very few of Tony’s readers post because of the few but loud nuts here who most readers see need far more help than I am able to give. This is clear to everyone here BUT the nuts. Take care.

    • uncle10 says:

      You guys are funny. He post real time what he thinks/signals. Not after the fact or unclear with maybe this or that or in code that most of us don’t understand. He has been very good if you have kept up. His posts are timed stamped and clear for all to see. Yes, he is very confident in his method and calls and is not afraid to tell us about how good it is 😉 but he is a good guy that means no harm and is helping many people do better. If you don’t like him just ignore him. NO need to warn everyone about him. He is only giving his opinions about the market- its very easy to just ignore if you don’t think it will help you. Bad talking and making false claims about someone is not cool.

      • Thanks my friend. The few nuts like Timmy and Lunk will think that you and I are the same person, hehehe.

        I appreciate what a stand-up guy you are, but rest assured that 99.9% of the readers see rthe few nuts and haters for what they are. I only engage with them from time to time because every time I do I get an influx of new readers to my blog and once they see it for themselves they become regulars. The truth is obvious to everyone else so please don’t waste your valuable time addressing the few nuts here. Unless you start a blog, in which case I highly recommend it, lol. Have a great weekend my friend!

  11. Steven David says:

    I understand how 2104.27 can be intermediate 1, but I’m having difficulty understanding how 2104.27 can be a major 1. Please help me clarify my thinking. For each possibility, where do you expect a Monday retracement to go.

  12. kevinm76 says:

    I bet we are still in Primary III folks! Yep III never ended. Instead I propose that III will end next year around 2400ish.

    Tony will eventually see the light on this one also. It just might take him longer to get a clue. I see it now. We are around late 1997 FOLKS!!!!! Prepare for it….

    The real IV will be a 20% correction and cause massive panic next year.

  13. tony caldaro says:

    retest the 2070 pivot

  14. fotis2 says:

    Thanks Tony looking forward to weekend update!GL ladies and gents and have a nice weekend.

  15. blubrd67 says:

    Tony, if major 5 is subdividing into 5 intermediate waves, would this the be the beginning of Minor 3 of Intermediate 1?

  16. mike7x says:

    Thanks Tony! You may not be perfect, NO one is, but you’re pretty darn close. #Horseshoes 🙂

  17. Jim Guthery says:

    Tony, in your view what would be a pull back target? Or, do we go up from here to 2104? Heck, I thought we were going to make 2104 today! I was out showing homes today and really got it handed to me by Mr Market!

  18. blackjak100 says:

    Thx TC! At least we can stop talking about the triangle idea. I’ve seen more triangles predictions on this site in the last 3-4 months Only to find they never pan out. Yet they are supposedly common structures…cheers!

    • mjtplayer says:

      FYI: The triangle possibility isn’t broken yet.

      I have the same opinion about truncated waves. They are rare and usually mean you’re count is wrong someplace else, though people use them as if they were a common occurrence.

      • blackjak100 says:

        Agree, triangle is still valid but extremely unlikely now. However, my main point was never to anticipate them as they are not common. I was told otherwise by quotes from a book smart EW guy.

        Anyway, I agree on truncations as well. They are not common enough and there’s no way to anticipate the rare times they do. GL and cheers!

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