Thursday update

SHORT TERM: higher open then selloff, DOW -252

Overnight the Asian markets lost 0.4%. Europe open higher, but when the ECB disappointed, it closed down 2.8%. US index futures followed Europe higher, then lower before the open. At 8:30 weekly Jobless claims were higher: 269K v 260K. The market opened five points above yesterday’s SPX 2080 close, and then immediately headed lower. At 10am Factory orders were reported higher: +1.5% v -1.0%, ISM services were reported lower: 55.9 v 59.1, and FED chair Yellen testified before the Senate: At 10:30 the SPX hit 2067, then rallied to 2078 just after 11am. After that it headed even lower. At 1pm FED vice chair Fischer gave a speech, fifth FED speech in two days: The market continued its decline and hit SPX 2042 right around 2:30. Then it rallied to SPX 2052 in the last hour before closing at 2050.

For the day the SPX/DOW lost 1.40%, and the NDX/NAZ lost 1.70%. Bonds lost 36 ticks, Crude gained $1.20, Gold advance $10, and the USD was lower. Medium term support drops to the 2019 and 1973 pivots, with resistance again at the 2070 and 2085 pivots. Tomorrow: monthly Payrolls and the Trade deficit at 8:30, and no FED speeches.

US index futures were much higher overnight, along with Europe, in anticipation of the ECB increasing its monthly EQE buying. When that failed to materialize the DAX, in example, went from +1% to -3%. US index futures also turned red. The market did manage to open higher, but the volatility in the currency and bond markets immediately began to take its toll on the equity market. We had noted yesterday that SPX 2070 could be an important level. The market broke through that in the first hour of trading, bounced above it, and then headed even lower. Our i-ii-iii-iv-1-2 count posted on the hourly chart yesterday did not hold. After the SPX 2070 break we posted a tentative Intermediate wave v label at yesterday’s SPX 2104 high. This would suggest a fifth wave failure in the current uptrend, failing to at least reach SPX 2116, and a downtrend now underway.

The reason we are going with this count is that the NDX/NAZ both made new uptrend highs this week, possibly completing their fifth waves up from the late-August low. If the uptrend did end this week, and the market is now in a downtrend, this bull market is going to extend into 2016. The parameter: there’s a high probability of the first uptrend off the Primary IV low could end the bull market  — if it makes new bull market highs. The SPX, DOW, nor NAZ have made new bull market highs. If the market confirms a downtrend soon that parameter no longer applies, suggesting Primary wave V will divide into five Major wave trends. As a result yesterday’s/today’s decline is both bad news and good news. Bad news in that a correction is probably underway, but good news in that the bull market has at least two more uptrends to go. We updated the SPX daily chart with the appropriate labeling should a downtrend be confirmed soon. Short term support is at the 2019 pivot and SPX 1991, with resistance at the 2070 and 2085 pivots. Short term momentum is extremely oversold. Best to your Payrolls trading!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend under pressure

LONG TERM: bull market



About tony caldaro

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286 Responses to Thursday update

  1. GYN LAB says:

    Fishhook its not cool to have a go at others on this excellent forum after your shorts get run over… vent your frustration in other ways..

    • fishonhook says:

      Not short at all. I will leave that to you. I actually believed that Tony may have it right with his 3 of 3 and even though I am bearishly inclined so went flat and missed the big drop yesterday and the big rise today.

  2. Jim Guthery says:

    Uvxy at $27.50 and $27.00 hoping for a bounce. Of course, had I kept my xiv through today i would’ve been elated!

  3. Vox Zeit says:

    Speculating that Minor-1, of Intermediate-iii, of Major-5, has now completed; and currently expecting Minor-2 retrace to 2085 pivot range:

  4. llerias7 says:

    Think it is the Int. III of Major 5…started today!
    Yesterday was a wild c-wave of Int.II. Makes sense this way. Int.III should carry spx above 2140…xmas rally is here after all…and it is not a bear (that was a bull nightmare).

  5. I smell a Rat! This market is moving up too fast and too far to hold in my opinion. Then next Monday is Pearl Harbor day… and with all these false flag events going on like San Bernardino and now the US embassy in Nigeria makes me think they plan something bad coming soon to tank this market.

    • fishonhook says:

      Tony deleted my last comment on you post because it was impolite. But your constant jabberings add nothing

      • fotis2 says:

        No Fish Dragon’s charts and commentary is among the best on this site

        • fishonhook says:

          How about you go back and read his missive from this am

          completely wrong.

          So we have to read his wrong analysis and then hear his chicken little end of the world posts too. And BTW obummer is insulting even if the host doesn’t think so. This is the same Prez on who’s watch Bin Laden was killed , no major terror attacks happened in the US and the S and P tripled. good enuff for ya??

          • h66h says:

            And not just killed, but dead for at least the third time! I think this looks a little over done here too.

          • Fish…. no one gets all the calls right. I miss some from time to time just like others do. But overall I get most of my calls correct. As for insulting the President, I can’t stand Bush or Clinton either…. all criminal’s in my humble opinion.

            For the terrorist attacks issue… I’m not even going to bother replying there as it’s pointless. In the mean time I look forward to reading your analysis and charts of where the market is going next.

          • fotis2 says:

            Part 1 Why do you read his post if you think they of no value?
            Part 2 Everyone is entitled to their opinion its a free world last time I checked..
            I’ve had my say you’ve had yours lets leave it at that now and not clutter the blog with meaningless nothings..

  6. gtoptions says:

    Wow, I concede defeat on the ‘b’ wave. LOL

  7. EL MATADOR says:


    “J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. is planning to fire its market maker on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange for poor performance during the Aug. 24 market mayhem, among other issues, according to people familiar with the matter.”

    “Bank believes actions by trader at KCG exacerbated volatility that day”

  8. Last post:This seems to always be true.200-300 point moves in both directions usually signal a correction.If we get a down move of it.Good luck all.

  9. tomasso60 says:

    hi Tony;
    do you know what percentage the energy sector makes up within the s&p 500.
    tried to find it but to no avail

  10. terrorist Attack alert issued by US embassy in nigeria …This market is crazy and unpredictable right now.

  11. GYN LAB says:

    Wow it was 2090 not upper 2070s… Definitely going long on pullback – looking for +-20pts into 50% retrace at 2066ish, probably 2070 pivot will do!

  12. fishonhook says:

    Let me get this straight coz I have a slow brain.

    What we are discussing are the subdivisions of 5 of P5…yes?

    Except the B wave guys (whom I hope for the sake of humanity are wrong)

    And a few who are still stuck on P4.

    And a few who pint out how Tony’s count does not fit with EW theory but fail to offer a credible alternative.


  13. Bond yields fall,gold up,dollar up,stocks up huge…oil down.You don t see that combo everyday.

  14. H D says:

    Tony, 2085Pivot, thanks for the 2046 yesterday, spicy meata balla. What do you think of the triangle idea Joe shared?

  15. MR.C:So are we in major 5 or 1?Correction or no?We may hit 2135 today…lol

  16. blackjak100 says:

    TC, is there a scenario where we make a new ATH and it’s still major 1?

  17. kevinm76 says:

    Inverse head and shoulders in the SPX It’s clear as day and all throughout this Bull market each and every inverse head and shoulders pattern has ended the same way…UP!!!!!

    Amateurs will miss this move starting in Feb-March of 2016, for they can’t see reality of the markets. MONEY has nowhere to go but into stocks.The bubble phase has started folks.

    Tony will be subdividing Primary V for months to come. He now says in to 2016. He will say next year into 2017. It just goes round and round.

    Keep shorting Bears… only fuels the fire


    • kvilia says:

      Are you done now? Just look at the length of this bull compare to others. We have one more rally at best. iii of V. My other comment awaiting moderation but I fully agreed with mjt message below.

    • EL MATADOR says:

      Money always has somewhere to go and it is not always stocks.

      • kevinm76 says:

        Of course you are correct, however in this case the bubble is in stocks fueled by the fed and the like. Thus there will be a bubble formed.

        I’m alone on this. It makes me feel safe. The masses are always wrong. Case in point yesterday. Incredible how wrong everybody was. It’s almost like nobody is paying any attention.


        • tommyboys says:

          Melt up potential. The IHS targets 2250-2350…

          • kevinm76 says:

            More like 2134-1867=267+2134 I get 2401. That’s where it will go by September 2016. It’s an easy trade if you just block out the noise and fear by the amateurs.


          • tommyboys says:

            Agree – I actually think higher but always try to remain conservative.

          • EL MATADOR says:

            let me ask you this. How did the IHS pattern work out for extending P1? Just saying. one of the most common topping out patterns is the formation of an IHS the quickly upon “breaking out” decides to morph into a HS pattern that puts terminates the party. just look at how P1 ended. I could show you tons of charts with this beautiful pattern. Just saying. Cheers

        • EL MATADOR says:

          ” Case in point yesterday. Incredible how wrong everybody was” ……
          umh not everybody, just saying cuz I sure was not wrong.

          • kevinm76 says:

            El Mat-Valid point and taken.

            I guess you have to be in one or the other camp( Bubble or no Bubble) Back when P-1 was happening the market was still thinking bear. Tony even thought in 2012 this was still a bear, so now it’s out in the open BULL with central banks making it very easy to bid up stocks. Draghi is doing it now. He will complete his purchases by 2017, thats when the bull will end.


  18. johnnymagicmoney says:

    Here is the truth – no one called yesterday and then today collectively. Plain and simple – this is just one of those times you throw your hands up laugh and giggle.

  19. kvilia says:

    “Agree El Mat, market internals are terrible and too many sectors are now in downtrends. Once we make a HH above 2,134 all bets are off as to how far it can go. My guess is not too far, perhaps just a double-top around 2,134 – 2,150.

    So far it looks like 2,104 = int i and 2,042 yesterday ended int ii. Now rallying in int iii of major 5. This would need to be one massive int ii though for any decent pullback qualifying as an int iv to not overlap the int i high of 2,104.”

    I would like to sign under all that – you read my mind and saved me typing time. That’s why I entered long positions yesterday, which was extremely stupid and risky, yet playing out. I am thinking to close though either today or tomorrow.

  20. uncle10 says:

    Thanks Tony.
    They did what they needed to do to save it again. Thats the third time in the past 3 months the math was ready to turn down for good but they save it at the last minute. They know what they are doing for sure….
    Still a traders market.
    Good weekend all.

  21. ABchart says:

    Draghi, live from NY, tries to repair his disastrous communication yesterday.

  22. AB congrats tu as tapé dans le mille:)

    • ABchart says:

      Par contre la douche froide sur les indices européens depuis l’info sur l’OPEP qui laisse sa production inchangée. Le CAC devait remonter à 4800/30, le DAX à 10900/30 avant de tomber mais ils ne les feront pas. Ils pourraient tomber à 4500 et 10200/300 prochainement avant de monter fortement.
      Je vais refaire mes décomptes moyen terme ce weekend.

  23. Philippe V says:

    Like I mentionned a few days ago, the previous count favored by TC before his recent revision seemed extremelly dubious as 4 Major waves were packed into a 2 months span. Most notably Major 1 from Aug 25th at 1867 to Aug 28th at 1993 was a stretch by any EW standards. Then again, I didn’t invent OEW but being allowed to qualify a 3 day move as a Major degree move without checking for proper sub-wave divisions of lesser degrees has to cast very strong doubts on the method.

    • fishonhook says:

      So what’s your count?

    • aahmichael says:

      I’ve been mentioning this for the last several months. Plus, in the NAZ, this forced count has wave 2 (9/29) going below the start of wave 1(8/25,) and in the NYA, it not only does the same, but it also has wave 4 going below the end of wave 1. In addition, in the NAZ, it has P3 lasting 44 months, but P4 only lasting 1 month.

      • Philippe V says:

        Totally with you on this. I think it was a forced count based on the premise that the bull market would end in early 2016, for a reason that was never explained by TC, just a random assumption. So waves had to be squeezed together as much as possible. I don’t understand the point of it when the method is supposed to be “objective”. Plus, there is a limit to giving precedence to price vs time. Major and Primary waves have to develop according to a time frame consistent with their magnitude and past history, imho.

        • 7dayyss says:

          He has given reasons in the weekend updates. Reread them, you’ll see. Whether you agree or not is up to you. He’s been more right then wrong to many a bloggers consternation!

        • aahmichael says:

          As I’ve said many times, I have never agreed with Tony’s count, but he still nailed the turn at the 9/29 lows, and caught the whole move up to 2116. You can make a lot of money with EW even when you have the wrong count. However, the wrong count will eventually cost you in the end. I also appreciate the fact that Tony allows open discussion of alternative counts on this board. I think it’s a great forum.

  24. Tony Jordan says:

    Daffy DAX moved up in 3 waves off today’s low (which incidentally was 700 points below yesterday’s high and 800 points below Wednesday’s high). The 4th wave has now overlapped the 1st. I would expect this to be bearish for all markets.

    • Tony Jordan says:

      BTW, the 3 wave move noted above put in a perfect double top with an afternoon intraday peak from yesterday. I would assess yesterday’s debacle as the “3” and today’s double top as the “4”. Overall the lack of 5 waves off today’s low is the chief tell and warning of lower lows to come.

    • Tony Jordan says:

      So much for that evaluation. What looked like a corrective sequence of waves off today’s low quickly morphed into a bullish 1-2, 1-2.

  25. SPX 2073 early signs of a significant top here. 20MA is acting as resistance now .

  26. torehund says:

    rut w-3 in progress.

  27. gtoptions says:

    Thanks Tony
    SPX .618 @ 2081 Killer ‘b’ IMO But, don’t hold me to it, things can change.😉
    C = 1.618 A @ 1976
    GL & Good Weekend All

  28. manunidhi21 says:

    I was expecting a +ve div before such a run up.
    Does close abv 2085 is good enough to assume minor 1 of Int iii ?

  29. So we re midway between 2019 and 2134.The downtrend not everyone saying on here the bull is extending into 2016 is premature–correct MR C?

    • EL MATADOR says:

      IMO, Cycle 1 Bull coming to and end, Learned. People just don’t want to accept this reality. Some says that we need euphoria from the dump retailer money which is typically true but not going to happen during this Cycle 1 Bull because the typical dump retailer is flat broke and is not going to participate as they typically would have, however, they will participate during the Cycle 3 Bull. For Cycle 1 Bull we got the euphoria from the “new dump money” CB’s/Sovereign Funds/Pensions etc. just my $0.5

      • mjtplayer says:

        Agree El Mat, market internals are terrible and too many sectors are now in downtrends. Once we make a HH above 2,134 all bets are off as to how far it can go. My guess is not too far, perhaps just a double-top around 2,134 – 2,150.

        So far it looks like 2,104 = int i and 2,042 yesterday ended int ii. Now rallying in int iii of major 5. This would need to be one massive int ii though for any decent pullback qualifying as an int iv to not overlap the int i high of 2,104.

        My alt count is a major 4 triangle, with yesterday’s low being int c and now rallying in int d. From 2,116: int a = 2,019 and int b = 2,104. The Triangle is busted if the market rallies above SPX 2,095 or so during this rally, certainly above 2,104 and would overwhelmingly shift the odds to the int iii of major 5 count.

  30. simpleiam says:

    Geez, Day Traders absolutely cleaning up with these huge daily swings!
    Have a great weekend All.
    Thanks Tony!

  31. johnnymagicmoney says:

    I am sure lots of people called this one today


    I was surprised by yesterday’s move but I didn’t change my longs (in place since 2026) although I sure started thinking about it. Being patient for a little more higher. That being said any returns pale in comparison to what can be made when this thing ends. Cant wait

    • fotis2 says:

      Unless it turns into a B wave..C down still to come.

    • aahmichael says:

      Actually, check out this post by MH from the weekend update. His daily projections were basically exactly what the market has done this week. I have no idea how he comes up with these projections, but he certainly nailed it this week.

      mh says:
      November 28, 2015 at 7:49 am

      Thank you, Tony. My usual contribute is ready: where is S&P 500 heading next week? and the weeks ahead? Just like weather forecasts, I show you what is more probable, without any personal opinion, just artificial intelligence and a lot of data crunching. Is there anything similar on the whole web?

  32. alexhartley1 says:

    Is anyone (apart from me and I presume traderJoe) giving more credence to his sideways type triangle shown yesterday which has us higher today in a d wave followed by one more push down in an e. I believe this would be a more extended Major 4 and then we’d be heading into Major 5 from the turn date 9th Dec into mid-Jan16 high for the bull market. Thanks

    Failing that Pretzel suggesting yesterday was a final c wave down of a complex expanded flat which has just ended a wave 2 at 2042.

  33. kevinm76 says:

    GOLD now currently in b of 5. It formed an ending diagonal on the 60 min chart since 11/16/15 that officially broke out today and the price objective is around 1095. Very clean pattern here folks. c should start by next week with at least a double bottom around 1045 or just a tad lower for the completion of the entire ending diagonal that has been going on for over a year now. Price objective is around $1400 by Fall 2016, however the initial burst or thrust of the ending diagonal is usually the strongest, which means by March 2016 Gold should be north of 1300.

    Again, very surprised nobody is really paying attention to this very clear and precise pattern in EW terms. Looking at tony’s charts…I’m sorry but all of those a b’s on the Gold chart are just plain incorrect.

    To each his own I guess..


  34. TommyB says:

    TC, since the SPX is roughly 5 points higher than the Dec futures, shouldn’t the Dec contract start closing the gap to the SPX over the next few days???

  35. blackjak100 says:

    With the $SPX A/D line making a new ATH on Tuesday, it’s very unlikely int ii completed yesterday. This line has topped 12-18 months in advance of bull market top last 2. This fits best with the major 2 underway scenario IMO.

    NYAD only +950 for this move

  36. ABchart says:

    December 3, 2015 at 5:57 pm
    ES: I think this decline will be short lived. Bounce in the coming hours, may be target +/-2074


    Update: low upside potential. I am waiting a confirmation for a bearish swing set up to 1997. Will confirm this when it is the case.

  37. purplember says:

    To the poster who complained about NE pats getting bad reffing sunday nite vs Denver. Packers confirmed get more calls than anyone in league and it’s not even close. REFS blew facemask call and gave GB win last night. 3 straight weeks refs have given GB a touchdown off bad calls.

  38. kevinm76 says:

    O NOOOO!!!!! The bears looking like FOOLS now folks!!!

  39. fbqueen3 says:

    Is this a B up or a iii up?

  40. NybisSibyn says:

    SPX Handle done at 2074 goal 1989

  41. fotis2 says:

    How now Brown Cow? jeeez this Market is tricky..

  42. What a way to start the day–gold up $25.Not how you start though…Must be delayed reaction to dollar crash yesterday.Stocks —oversold bounce is all–has to be with Europe down and not joining in.Good luck all.

  43. dwr51 says:

    You had mentioned that the Bull market would now last into 2016. With this in mind do you also believe that we will hit the your upper target levels because of this.

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