Monday update

SHORT TERM: sideways/choppy activity continues, DOW -79

Overnight Asian markets lost 0.4%. Europe opened higher and gained 0.4%. US index futures were higher overnight and the market opened four points above Friday’s SPX 2090 close. Right after the open the market started to pullback. At 9:45 the Chicago PMI was reported lower: 48.7 v 56.2, and at 10am Pending home sales were reported higher: +0.2% v -2.3%. Just past 10am the SPX hit 2085. After a rally to unchanged at SPX 2090 by 10:30, the market pulled back to 2082 by 11:30. Then after another rally to unchanged at 2pm, the market pulled back to the low of the day at SPX 2080 and closed there.

For the day the SPX/DOW were -0.45%, and the NDX/NAZ were -0.35%. Bonds lost 1 tick, Crude slipped 10 cents, Gold added $7, and the USD was higher. Medium term support slips to the 2070 and 2019 pivots, with resistance at the 2085 and 2131 pivots. Tomorrow: Construction spending, ISM manufacturing and Auto sales all around 10am.

The market opened higher today, reaching Wednesday’s SPX 2094 high. But just like Wednesday the market pulled back after having an opportunity to break through SPX 2100. Wednesday’s and Friday’s sideways activity was easily attributed to holiday trading. But today’s continuation of that activity can not. We are clearly seeing some choppy activity in the waves, and would not be surprised to see the OEW 2070 pivot range retested before the uptrend resumes. Short term support is at the 2070 pivot and SPX 2046, with resistance at the 2085 pivot and SPX 2097. Short term momentum is trying to setup a positive divergence, and ended slightly oversold. Best to your first day of December trading!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend

LONG TERM: bull market


About tony caldaro

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143 Responses to Monday update

  1. Correction possibility of the Dow Jones by the waves of Elliott
    Index fulfilled the 5 wave and is now likely to come the correction waves.
    click on the link below to view the analysis


  2. simpleiam says:

    Looking pretty darned good, Tony. Thank you! Now, if we can get a gap up in the morning, it would be great!


  3. gtoptions says:

    NYA is on board with this rally. Giddy Up! 😉


  4. Tony Jordan says:

    Gold up a few bucks but gold miners significantly outperforming the metal today:
    Euro also off the floor. Wondering if the market is suggesting a top of some degree in the senior currency?
    Now a bird’s eye view of the CRB which at 182.54 is lower than 1999 & 2001. We have to go back to 1975 (yes, 40 years) to find a lower low in this index.
    What this chart of the CRB also shows is price is now in and around long term support and simply on this basis alone a rally of some sort should be in the offering. Interestingly the timing roughly coincides with an expected end of a 6+ year bull market in US equities. So what now, commodities up and stocks down? Has happened before but fleetingly and is the exception rather than the rule. Speculating only, but an escalation of the conflict in the Middle East may light a fire under the energy sector which has the heaviest weighting in the CRB.


  5. Huuummm Tony are we going to make it today ?


  6. hk1122 says:

    Hi Tony, can you enumerate the main differences between OEW and traditional EW?
    Thanks & Regards


    • tony caldaro says:

      OEW quantifies the significant waves during bull/bear markets.
      We just can’t put a label anywhere that looks right, or meets a preconceived notion.
      We can only put labels where there are actual trend reversals.
      In addition we have added many technical features that coincide with the waves, i.e. the pivots, asset cycles, RSI 5, the saeculum, etc.


  7. EL MATADOR says:

    The Oxford Economist Running the Fed’s Interest-Rate Machine
    Simon Potter is charged with implementing mechanisms that will raise interest rates when Fed policy makers make that call


    • mjtplayer says:

      Banks get sued and fined for manipulating markets, hedge funds/managers get sued and fined for manipulating markets or stocks, but the biggest market manipulator of all is praised for goosing asset prices and the politicians are begging them to keep rates at zero to keep the party (fraud) going.



  8. uncle10 says:

    Thanks Mr. T.
    Interest rates sinking as we closer to the fed rate hike….. 😉 hahaha


  9. mjtplayer says:

    7 days now of choppy, sideways, overlapping waves.

    The bulls are arguing that the sideways consolidation is healthy and we’re about to break-out. I would agree if this consolidation were at or above SPX 2,116, instead we’re consolidating BELOW the prior low – which could also be a sign the rally from 2,019 has run-out of gas.

    I have 3 counts that are probable and it’s hard at this point to choose 1 over another. This mornings strong open has fizzled and we have overlapping waves everywhere. Either:

    – We just completed int i this morning from 2,019
    – We completed minor b of int ii and about to drop in “c of c” to complete int ii
    – Or we have an int i,ii, minor 1,2, minute i,ii, minutte 1,2 count going (we all know how these embedded 1,2 counts pan-out)

    We’ll see, hopefully we get a catalyst, one way or another, with the ECB meeting, jobs report and OPEC meeting all on Thursday & Friday. This boring sideways action is untradable.


    • kvilia says:

      I exited my long positions today with profit (XIV and DXRLX) and will stay on sidelines for now having just some NUGT and very small UVXY positions. Overall tech indicators are in overbought zone while markets have been sidetrading, so I read it as a negative sign. RUT is at the August break point and underperforming, SPX is mingling with 200MA again, so the move below 2065 could be very painful without a chance to recover for bulls. Be careful out there and have your trailing stops in place if you are a bull.


      • mjtplayer says:

        DOW up over 100, Treasuries are higher? Small caps are red? Something doesn’t smell right. I’ve been in cash for about a week and plan to stay there until we get some type of move to narrow the probabilities and get a better idea of which count we’re in.


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