Wednesday update

SHORT TERM: quiet pre-holiday trading, DOW +1

Overnight the Asian market lost 0.4%. Europe opened higher and gained 1.6%. US index futures were higher overnight. At 8:30 weekly Jobless claims were reported lower: 260K v 271K, Personal income (+0.4% v -0.1%)/spending (+0.1% v +0.1%) were reported higher, PCE prices were reported flat: 0.0% v +0.2%, and Durable goods were reported higher: +3.1% v -1.2%. Then at 9am the FHFA was reported higher: +0.8% v +0.3%. The market opened two points above Tuesday’s SPX 2089 close, dipped to 2086 in the opening minutes, then rallied to 2093 by 10:30. At 10am Consumer sentiment was reported lower: 91.3 v 93.1, and New home sales were reported higher: 495K v 468K. The market then went into an opening range, (SPX 2086-2093), trading for the rest of the day. Ending the day at SPX 2089.

For the day the SPX/DOW were mixed, and the NDX/NAZ gained 0.15%. Bonds gained 2 ticks, Crude rose 25 cents, Gold dropped $5, and the USD was higher. Medium term support remains at the 2085 and 2070 pivots, with resistance at the 2131 and 2145 pivots. Tomorrow is the Thanks giving holiday, and Friday trading will be open until 1pm.

The market opened a bit higher today, dipped to SPX 2086, rallied to 2093, and that was it for the day. Obviously no change on the count after four waves up from the SPX 2019 Major 4 low: 2067-2046-2097-2070 with the fifth wave underway. Short term support remains at the 2085 and 2070 pivots, with resistance at SPX 2116 and the 2131 pivot. Short term momentum ended the day just below neutral. Happy Thanksgiving!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend

LONG TERM: bull market


About tony caldaro

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83 Responses to Wednesday update

  1. seeing the development, I could see this 2070 to 2094 to be the B wave of the possible 2 of iii. 2096 to 20 79 was the A. now 3,3,3,3 endlessly.


  2. simpleiam says:

    DJI might be down because of Disney, but crude sure isn’t helping. 30’s coming shortly. Don’t know if we see another bounce first or not. Lots of jobs going down with it. Yikes! Guess I’d better be prep as best I can…


    • B Seagle says:…Prep, well you mentioned the word!


    • tommyboys says:

      Simp how were the jobs in the industry 15 years ago with $10 oil? Was it all doom and gloom?


      • simpleiam says:

        Tboys, in 2000, most people kept their jobs; very few of the Contractors (engineers) in our offices were let go. Now, virtually all of them are not being renewed. Miniscule perks are being added to encourage early retirement of Employees, and the bottom 10% of Employees, being termed as “low-performing Employees” have been let go. This drops those who were in a higher bracket down to the bottom now. The ridiculous grading system used is like that in school: A, B, C, etc. At least 80% of non-engineering personnel over the age of 50 are in the “C” bracket. In my department, what used to be about 150-160 combined personnel, is now just under 50; all happening just this year.

        When Crude sank to $10, everyone seemed to know it was temporary, but now, it seems pretty clear that over-production, disinflation, and deflation are here to stay for a while. As with all public corporations, the first in line to benefit (after fat mgmt. cats) are the shareholders; and that’s the way it should be. However, the amount of wasteful spending that I’ve seen take place over the last 25+ years should never have happened, and it’s the average worker who will pay the price.

        I do not blame Capitalism for what’s happened; it’s part of a normal economic cycle, and I knew deflation was coming for some time, even though many laughed at my opinion; they’re not laughing now. I do blame those who’ve wasted so much money on things not necessary; but I also think this is part of the economic cycle. It has to happen to re-align large capitalist business thinking every 80 years or so. It is what it is.


        • tommyboys says:

          Yep Simp, unfortunately what you describe is himan nature. When times are fat those in the position waste waste waste. “It’s only when the tide goes out do we expose those swimming naked”.Saw the exact same in the Steel industry over 2 1/2 decades. We see the same at all levels of government. A very, VERY few know what it means to “save for a rainy day”. The cycle will repeat to infinity. ATB


    • Dex T says:

      Not only jobs but a lot more global instability. Most of the rest of the world relies on oil as their main source of income.


    • tony caldaro says:

      we had a discussion about Crude yesterday


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