Wednesday update

SHORT TERM: quiet pre-holiday trading, DOW +1

Overnight the Asian market lost 0.4%. Europe opened higher and gained 1.6%. US index futures were higher overnight. At 8:30 weekly Jobless claims were reported lower: 260K v 271K, Personal income (+0.4% v -0.1%)/spending (+0.1% v +0.1%) were reported higher, PCE prices were reported flat: 0.0% v +0.2%, and Durable goods were reported higher: +3.1% v -1.2%. Then at 9am the FHFA was reported higher: +0.8% v +0.3%. The market opened two points above Tuesday’s SPX 2089 close, dipped to 2086 in the opening minutes, then rallied to 2093 by 10:30. At 10am Consumer sentiment was reported lower: 91.3 v 93.1, and New home sales were reported higher: 495K v 468K. The market then went into an opening range, (SPX 2086-2093), trading for the rest of the day. Ending the day at SPX 2089.

For the day the SPX/DOW were mixed, and the NDX/NAZ gained 0.15%. Bonds gained 2 ticks, Crude rose 25 cents, Gold dropped $5, and the USD was higher. Medium term support remains at the 2085 and 2070 pivots, with resistance at the 2131 and 2145 pivots. Tomorrow is the Thanks giving holiday, and Friday trading will be open until 1pm.

The market opened a bit higher today, dipped to SPX 2086, rallied to 2093, and that was it for the day. Obviously no change on the count after four waves up from the SPX 2019 Major 4 low: 2067-2046-2097-2070 with the fifth wave underway. Short term support remains at the 2085 and 2070 pivots, with resistance at SPX 2116 and the 2131 pivot. Short term momentum ended the day just below neutral. Happy Thanksgiving!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend

LONG TERM: bull market


About tony caldaro

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83 Responses to Wednesday update

  1. seeing the development, I could see this 2070 to 2094 to be the B wave of the possible 2 of iii. 2096 to 20 79 was the A. now 3,3,3,3 endlessly.

  2. simpleiam says:

    DJI might be down because of Disney, but crude sure isn’t helping. 30’s coming shortly. Don’t know if we see another bounce first or not. Lots of jobs going down with it. Yikes! Guess I’d better be prep as best I can…

    • B Seagle says:…Prep, well you mentioned the word!

    • tommyboys says:

      Simp how were the jobs in the industry 15 years ago with $10 oil? Was it all doom and gloom?

      • simpleiam says:

        Tboys, in 2000, most people kept their jobs; very few of the Contractors (engineers) in our offices were let go. Now, virtually all of them are not being renewed. Miniscule perks are being added to encourage early retirement of Employees, and the bottom 10% of Employees, being termed as “low-performing Employees” have been let go. This drops those who were in a higher bracket down to the bottom now. The ridiculous grading system used is like that in school: A, B, C, etc. At least 80% of non-engineering personnel over the age of 50 are in the “C” bracket. In my department, what used to be about 150-160 combined personnel, is now just under 50; all happening just this year.

        When Crude sank to $10, everyone seemed to know it was temporary, but now, it seems pretty clear that over-production, disinflation, and deflation are here to stay for a while. As with all public corporations, the first in line to benefit (after fat mgmt. cats) are the shareholders; and that’s the way it should be. However, the amount of wasteful spending that I’ve seen take place over the last 25+ years should never have happened, and it’s the average worker who will pay the price.

        I do not blame Capitalism for what’s happened; it’s part of a normal economic cycle, and I knew deflation was coming for some time, even though many laughed at my opinion; they’re not laughing now. I do blame those who’ve wasted so much money on things not necessary; but I also think this is part of the economic cycle. It has to happen to re-align large capitalist business thinking every 80 years or so. It is what it is.

        • tommyboys says:

          Yep Simp, unfortunately what you describe is himan nature. When times are fat those in the position waste waste waste. “It’s only when the tide goes out do we expose those swimming naked”.Saw the exact same in the Steel industry over 2 1/2 decades. We see the same at all levels of government. A very, VERY few know what it means to “save for a rainy day”. The cycle will repeat to infinity. ATB

    • Dex T says:

      Not only jobs but a lot more global instability. Most of the rest of the world relies on oil as their main source of income.

    • tony caldaro says:

      we had a discussion about Crude yesterday

  3. Pull, pull the neck of the chicken. But how long can resist ?

  4. blackjak100 says:

    Stat of the day…

  5. blackjak100 says:

    TC, are you favoring the 1-2-1-2 count or the wave 5 underway count. After rereading your Wed update, it looks like you switched to favoring the wave 5 of int i.

  6. Gary Lewis says:

    Someone was buying lots of today’s 209 and 210 SPY calls for pennies. Wonder if we will pop?

  7. skmcobra says:

    Tony, If you had to put a % of chance the SPX dips into the 1900s one more time before breaking the ATH, what would you give it?

  8. Sorry guys but all sub waves are overlapping, no chance for long for a while now

  9. Interesting that the dollar has been rising on lower and lower RSI–while gold is lower with better RSI.It s like Waiting for Godot except this is Gold-ot–for the divs to kick in.If they don t,I ll be wrong but I m giving this plenty of time.Good luck all.

  10. mjtplayer says:

    2 market forces battling each other – post OPEX week vs. holiday week. Typically stocks move higher on holiday weeks, but remember the post OPEX phenomenon as well. Last week we rallied into OPEX, so the this week the opposite should occur – a give-back. These 2 forces are in a tug-of-war and so far neither is winning – a dead flat market this week as they offset each other.

    All eyes on the ECB meeting next Thursday for a possible increase in stimulus and the jobs report next Friday for signs of direction.

    • I read on Zerohedge a report from Goldman (I believe it was)thinking Draghi may be bluffing further QE.At this point with the Euro dropping as it has,much is being priced in..just as Yellens .25 rate increase is being priced in.I m hoping the trend reverses no matter what is done on Dec 2nd or the Fed day.

  11. Arthur Knopf says:

    Is this the beginning of the end?

    I’ve been warning for weeks that the biggest problem facing the market over the next few months would be China (2015/11/04/wednesday-update-516/#comment-225687).

    Overnight the SSEC closed down 5.5% to 3400, and 3000 is the make it or break it point. With gold down another $15 as a leading indicator, the coming US selloff in Dec-Jan is looking more likely.

  12. torehund says:

    ..the fighter downing is perceived as a local issue only, Russia and the US are planning to coordinate their fight in Syria. Time for Santa it seems.

    • fotis2 says:

      The masks are off and its time for the major players to finally show their hand, pick sides and get on with it…I find it disgusting so many inocent people geting killed in the most atrocious ways and so many others suffering for the benefit of a select few new faces-still to come- on Forbes along with a couple old ones.Hopefully the begining of the End….

      • torehund says:

        When reporting to my bank to obtain reverse split converted stocks, Citibank clams there has not been a reverse split as they have heard of. They don’t even bother to re-write history.
        This has to be the time of peak arrogance and fraudulent behavior.
        Same in politics, anything goes.

          • torehund says:

            It was another one of my GRUEZOMES🙂 AEZS, they had a 100:1 just 10 days ago, by a miracle I got a mail just minutes ago; my bank succumbed to my claims🙂 Well maybe the sell-lock isn’t that important for them anymore, and they are ready to ditch it🙂
            In case its on a 3rd up from bottom, well then I might consider that Santa will arrive this year too. Maybe the new employee had not been sufficiently enrolled in the “this is the way we do it here in City” YET, but I doubt it🙂
            Maybe the younger generation and new-bees all of a sudden wakes up to reason, for no other reason than being able to discern right from wrong…Maybe the boots all of a sudden “looses it”, and we get the dough🙂
            Thinking back at the the time when Russia went bankrupt, boots are certainly fallible in case the theory of “chaos” punches them hard from an unexpected angle.

          • torehund says:

            Kindly note that the Depository has not announced a stock split event for this security. If you have support for such an event from an authenticated source such as a company press release,

            SEC filing, agent notice, etc, kindly forward it to us and I will have our Events Creation Team research and validate it with our sources.

            Here it is, fresh out of the owen, copied and pasted from Citybank one hour ago🙂 Yeah, events Creation team, so an event is nothing tangible like an “incident” any longer, its something created !!!! Like all the downings; were they Created too ?

          • tony caldaro says:

            you believe what we tell you

  13. budfox9450 says:

    Wish all have had, a great Thanksgiving Holiday, enjoy the day.
    But – when looking at the US stock market. Especially, the SP500
    index, There are alarming signals – suggesting a price top has formed,
    or is forming (for sometime). The key signals, come in the form
    of a loss of upside momentum. Can’t always see it in the price pattern.
    But – relative strength, while general timing guide is give such as warning
    to long positions in the equity market.

    My BoYu indicator, is indicating such a negative pattern.

    OTW – have a great day. I will be traveling, enjoying my time
    away from home. In the southern most city, of Florida. ….Bud

    • kevinm76 says:

      Bud…..stop being so childish! You mention this so called BoYu indicator but you never back it up with a chart. Let me help you…..SHOW IT!!!!!! and gain your respect back. Others here have asked you about this and you have ignored and shown yourself as a self indulged jerk(nose up in the air). Man up!!!!

      I had to say this folks…this guy gets me going. These type of people in the world make things the way they are.


      • budfox9450 says:

        Kevinm76….hope your feeling better soon.
        Your not using much, in the way of wisdom though.
        Name calling, rarely wins friends, and may keep you
        from reaching a financial goal…..

        • budfox9450 says:

          RUT 2000 index – BoYu has it as a Sell Signal Nov 25th…..end

        • kevinm76 says:

          Bud…I expected such reply. You failed to see my point. I never expected you to address the issue.

          For the record I could care less about your indicator, which is likely a lagging indicator anyway.

          Regardless have a good time in Florida keeping your indicator a mystery.


          • drwarmington says:

            Kevinm …. I know Bud. Bud is an older guy, in the twilight of his career. He travels a lot and holds his Bo Yu close to his heart. He looks on it as a leading indicator, but I am somewhat skeptical. I would use it in conjunction with TC’s thoughts. Hope this helps.

          • kevinm76 says:

            drwarminton-Note taken…


      • camper1888 says:

        at least is little better than FRB indicators.. LOL

    • mike7x says:

      Thanks for the update Bud. Happy Thanksgiving!

    • jeffbalin says:

      Thanks for posting Bud!

    • Gary Lewis says:

      I agree Bud. My momentum indicators have been declining for quite awhile now as well. Enjoy the beach🙂

    • simpleiam says:

      Safe Travels to You, Bud! Going to be cold and rainy this weekend in the Houston area, and will get a lot colder if WTI/Brent can’t get their happy arses off the floor. Personally, I think they’re down for the count for a while… A long while.

      GL Bud!

  14. torehund says:

    Bluechips turned into crazy small caps. Buy at your own risk🙂

  15. torehund says:

    Happy thanksgiving to all.

    • kevinm76 says:

      Nice triangle on Gold!…The breakout will be to the upside for b of 5. Ending diagonal just about done.

  16. fotis2 says:

    To all the posters in the US have a wonderfull Thankgiving, God Bless and praying for peace and calm in these uncertain times.

  17. tomasso60 says:

    thanks Tony;
    wishing all U.S. folks a very happy Thanksgiving day with friends and family.
    blessings to all for a peaceful week and holiday season

  18. 7dayyss says:

    I see no replies Tony, must be in the kitchen already getting a head start! Hope you have a Happy Thanksgiving with the loved ones, and to all the usual suspects on the blog.

  19. mjtplayer says:

    Thanks Tony and Happy Turkey Day to you and yours!

  20. EL MATADOR says:

    Have a happy thxgvg to Tony and all

    hope you do too 🙂

  21. This stagnating slowing down is not looking promising. We should have had fast down action and fastest rebounds….. Maybe just only the i of 5 completing.

    • Not going above 2093 intra-day for the second day in a row is also troubling. I believe we still have one more steep short lived drop coming but in order for this to be correct it has to occur almost immediately.

  22. Sandra Dons says:

    Don’t talk about it to Mr Putin

    Happy thanksgiving day to all

    In 2200 we trust!!!

  23. fbqueen3 says:

    Happy Thanksgiving to all. Hope Friday can be the breakout day.

  24. Dex T says:

    The Dow is down 10 points on the week so far. A very disappointing Thanksgiving week which is historically bullish. Will Friday’s shortened trading day make up for it?

    but anyhow…

    Happy Thanksgiving to all!

  25. llerias7 says:

    Wave count? Still open…end of Int.I or 3rd of Int.III?

  26. hakunamatata1966 says:

    Thank you Tony. Happy thanksgiving to you and rest of the contributors on this blog.

  27. mike7x says:

    Thanks Tony! HAPPY THANKSGIVING to all and your love ones!

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