SHORT TERM: gap down opening, DOW +20
Overnight the Asian markets lost 0.1%. Europe opened lower and lost 1.1%. US index futures were lower overnight. At 8:30 Q3 GDP was reported higher: +2.1% v +1.5%, then at 9am Case-Shiller was reported higher: +5.5% v +5.1%. The market gapped down at the open to SPX 2077, then bounced to 2081 by 10am. At 10am Consumer confidence was reported lower: 90.4 v 97.6. The market then sold off to SPX 2070 by 11am. After the market staged a fairly good rally. After hitting SPX 2093 around 2pm, the market dipped to 2087 by 2:30, bounced to 2094 just past 3pm, then closed at 2089.
For the day the SPX/DOW gained 0.10%, and the NDX/NAZ ended mixed. Bonds gained 4 ticks, Crude rose $1.15, Gold added $7, and the USD was lower. Medium term support remains at the 2085 and 2070 pivots, with resistance at the 2131 and 2145 pivots. Tomorrow: weekly Jobless claims, Personal income/spending, the PCE and Durable goods all at 8:30. Then the FHFA at 9am, and Consumer sentiment plus New home sales at 10am. Busy day before the holiday.
Wild day! The market gapped down 10 points from yesterday’s SPX 2087 close at the open, bounced, and then headed to the 2070 pivot by 11am. After that the market rallied, closing the opening gap by noon, and then continued to 2094 by 3pm. Then the market pulled back some into the close. While the decline to SPX 2070 was a bit more than expected, we did update the Minor 2 labeling after the market rallied back into the 2080’s. Currently the labeling remains as posted: i-ii, 1-2. However, once the market reaches SPX 2097, or higher, if it pulls back again it would indicate the entire move from SPX 2019 was Intermediate wave i. If it continues higher, like a third of a third should, then the count remains the same. Best to your trading!
MEDIUM TERM: uptrend
LONG TERM: bull market
the ELLIOTT WAVE lives on 
30 minutes to Mars…..?
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About 15 min left and still stuck on earth. The launch may just have to be another day.
Overall a boring choppy day – everyone gone for the holidays -algos on autopilot.
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I guess those stock gift cards are selling poorly
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I guess so. Maybe people are waiting for Black Friday to officially “buy”
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“…otherwise the next week could continue being extremely boring.”
Hang onto your drawers mjt, I don’t think it’s going to be boring much longer…
Over limit. Happy Gobbler All!
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Thanks Tony.
Have a great Thanksgiving everyone!!
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Because of that longish and timid sideways consolidation, seems like it might go up quite a bit when it cracks.
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🙂
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Yes, this would certainly be a surprise:
http://www.cnbc.com/2015/11/24/the-surprising-case-for-100-oil.html
TTYL. Happy Thanksgiving All!
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It’s basically up to “geopolitical risks” -but the Middle East has been in chaos for years and oil has only gone down even with Russia entering the fray. All of the pipelines have remained intact. Sure it can always change but any price spike will likely be only temporary.
Also this analyst (along with all the other oil bulls) does not take into account continual technological advances. In 2-3 years time Apple and Google (with new Tesla models) are planning to roll out electric cars that can compete on a mileage basis with traditional combustion based vehicles. As the world pulls way from oil as an energy source the price will continue to decline and head down to $5- $10.
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Wow – feel that wave 3 power….ahem….(sarcasm)….
This feels more like a fizzzle-out minor 5 to complete int i than a minor 3 of int iii. The market needs to start impulsing higher soon, otherwise the count may have to change.
https://www.tradingview.com/x/a0Z31gso/
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EL MATADOR says:
November 24, 2015 at 2:26 pm
64K question is, is this a 3rd of 3rd or something else? My guts tell me it is something else
************************
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If this sideways action continues than it certainly could be “something else”.
ECB meeting next Thursday Dec 3rd, jobs report Friday Dec 4th; I certainly hope the market does something and tips it’s hand before then, otherwise the next week could continue being extremely boring.
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could it be 2057 or so….?
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Per your alt count, w5 = w1 = 2119,
also the potential IHS pattern measured move targets 2119
which happens to be near the upper BB and gap around 2119ish
also for fwiw day before thxgvg is historically bullish if I call my stats it’s around +70% bullish day
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..recliner time.
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The blast off will come in the afternoon, only to sell off into the close, but remain Holiday Green. 😉
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I was thinking we close above +2100 today and any selling will start on Friday or Monday. its going to be fun to watch
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Interesting opinions, so I’ll throw mine in there. I think a good chance of a rally starting next week. Think a rate hike is baked-in at this point, and unless something happens with ISIS, etc. over the weekend, then, would have a sell early next week, but I think it’s going to start to turn green…
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Still viewing this has Major 3 of Primary 5…. from 2023…. 2177 is the target
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Ma, Agree.
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Could rut go into a squeeze here ?
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S&P Primary 2 was only 25% retracement and now Primary 4 has also done only 25% retracement. This seems to be the sign of an extended Primary Wave 5, i.e. S&P target seems to be around 3300.
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Years back one of the worlds top prognosticators projected 3600 on SP 500… David Bensimon, he is not perfect but I would call him a genius for sure
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Is he not the one that predicted GDX $2.600 by 2014 also?
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http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-11-24/bank-of-america-the-s-p-500-is-going-to-hit-3-500-by-the-year-2025
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ThIs is what will happen by the year 2025:
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How will raising rates thus strengthening the USD further help?
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“help” maybe isn’t the best word to use because someone is going to get hurt in the game. Whether it’s emerging markets, U.S. equities, the U.S. dollar, inflation or the debt that the Reserve has to pay etc… One activity can affect another area negatively.
I don’t know what the Fed really has in mind as it’s priority other than try to maintain steady growth without rocking the boat but they may want to try and decouple themselves from European markets and weakness.
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