SHORT TERM: gap down opening, DOW +20
Overnight the Asian markets lost 0.1%. Europe opened lower and lost 1.1%. US index futures were lower overnight. At 8:30 Q3 GDP was reported higher: +2.1% v +1.5%, then at 9am Case-Shiller was reported higher: +5.5% v +5.1%. The market gapped down at the open to SPX 2077, then bounced to 2081 by 10am. At 10am Consumer confidence was reported lower: 90.4 v 97.6. The market then sold off to SPX 2070 by 11am. After the market staged a fairly good rally. After hitting SPX 2093 around 2pm, the market dipped to 2087 by 2:30, bounced to 2094 just past 3pm, then closed at 2089.
For the day the SPX/DOW gained 0.10%, and the NDX/NAZ ended mixed. Bonds gained 4 ticks, Crude rose $1.15, Gold added $7, and the USD was lower. Medium term support remains at the 2085 and 2070 pivots, with resistance at the 2131 and 2145 pivots. Tomorrow: weekly Jobless claims, Personal income/spending, the PCE and Durable goods all at 8:30. Then the FHFA at 9am, and Consumer sentiment plus New home sales at 10am. Busy day before the holiday.
Wild day! The market gapped down 10 points from yesterday’s SPX 2087 close at the open, bounced, and then headed to the 2070 pivot by 11am. After that the market rallied, closing the opening gap by noon, and then continued to 2094 by 3pm. Then the market pulled back some into the close. While the decline to SPX 2070 was a bit more than expected, we did update the Minor 2 labeling after the market rallied back into the 2080’s. Currently the labeling remains as posted: i-ii, 1-2. However, once the market reaches SPX 2097, or higher, if it pulls back again it would indicate the entire move from SPX 2019 was Intermediate wave i. If it continues higher, like a third of a third should, then the count remains the same. Best to your trading!
MEDIUM TERM: uptrend
LONG TERM: bull market