Tuesday update

SHORT TERM: gap down opening, DOW +20

Overnight the Asian markets lost 0.1%. Europe opened lower and lost 1.1%. US index futures were lower overnight. At 8:30 Q3 GDP was reported higher: +2.1% v +1.5%, then at 9am Case-Shiller was reported higher: +5.5% v +5.1%. The market gapped down at the open to SPX 2077, then bounced to 2081 by 10am. At 10am Consumer confidence was reported lower: 90.4 v 97.6. The market then sold off to SPX 2070 by 11am. After the market staged a fairly good rally. After hitting SPX 2093 around 2pm, the market dipped to 2087 by 2:30, bounced to 2094 just past 3pm, then closed at 2089.

For the day the SPX/DOW gained 0.10%, and the NDX/NAZ ended mixed. Bonds gained 4 ticks, Crude rose $1.15, Gold added $7, and the USD was lower. Medium term support remains at the 2085 and 2070 pivots, with resistance at the 2131 and 2145 pivots. Tomorrow: weekly Jobless claims, Personal income/spending, the PCE and Durable goods all at 8:30. Then the FHFA at 9am, and Consumer sentiment plus New home sales at 10am. Busy day before the holiday.

Wild day! The market gapped down 10 points from yesterday’s SPX 2087 close at the open, bounced, and then headed to the 2070 pivot by 11am. After that the market rallied, closing the opening gap by noon, and then continued to 2094 by 3pm. Then the market pulled back some into the close. While the decline to SPX 2070 was a bit more than expected, we did update the Minor 2 labeling after the market rallied back into the 2080’s. Currently the labeling remains as posted: i-ii, 1-2. However, once the market reaches SPX 2097, or higher, if it pulls back again it would indicate the entire move from SPX 2019 was Intermediate wave i. If it continues higher, like a third of a third should, then the count remains the same. Best to your trading!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend

LONG TERM: bull market

CHARTS: http://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

About tony caldaro

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123 Responses to Tuesday update

  1. fotis2 says:

    30 minutes to Mars…..?

  2. simpleiam says:

    “…otherwise the next week could continue being extremely boring.”

    Hang onto your drawers mjt, I don’t think it’s going to be boring much longer…

    Over limit. Happy Gobbler All!

  3. uncle10 says:

    Thanks Tony.
    Have a great Thanksgiving everyone!!

  4. Because of that longish and timid sideways consolidation, seems like it might go up quite a bit when it cracks.

  5. simpleiam says:

    Yes, this would certainly be a surprise:


    TTYL. Happy Thanksgiving All!

    • Dex T says:

      It’s basically up to “geopolitical risks” -but the Middle East has been in chaos for years and oil has only gone down even with Russia entering the fray. All of the pipelines have remained intact. Sure it can always change but any price spike will likely be only temporary.

      Also this analyst (along with all the other oil bulls) does not take into account continual technological advances. In 2-3 years time Apple and Google (with new Tesla models) are planning to roll out electric cars that can compete on a mileage basis with traditional combustion based vehicles. As the world pulls way from oil as an energy source the price will continue to decline and head down to $5- $10.

  6. mjtplayer says:

    Wow – feel that wave 3 power….ahem….(sarcasm)….

    This feels more like a fizzzle-out minor 5 to complete int i than a minor 3 of int iii. The market needs to start impulsing higher soon, otherwise the count may have to change.


    • EL MATADOR says:

      EL MATADOR says:
      November 24, 2015 at 2:26 pm
      64K question is, is this a 3rd of 3rd or something else? My guts tell me it is something else

      • mjtplayer says:

        If this sideways action continues than it certainly could be “something else”.

        ECB meeting next Thursday Dec 3rd, jobs report Friday Dec 4th; I certainly hope the market does something and tips it’s hand before then, otherwise the next week could continue being extremely boring.

      • fionamargaret says:

        could it be 2057 or so….?

    • EL MATADOR says:

      Per your alt count, w5 = w1 = 2119,
      also the potential IHS pattern measured move targets 2119
      which happens to be near the upper BB and gap around 2119ish
      also for fwiw day before thxgvg is historically bullish if I call my stats it’s around +70% bullish day

    • gtoptions says:

      The blast off will come in the afternoon, only to sell off into the close, but remain Holiday Green.😉

      • EL MATADOR says:

        I was thinking we close above +2100 today and any selling will start on Friday or Monday. its going to be fun to watch

      • simpleiam says:

        Interesting opinions, so I’ll throw mine in there. I think a good chance of a rally starting next week. Think a rate hike is baked-in at this point, and unless something happens with ISIS, etc. over the weekend, then, would have a sell early next week, but I think it’s going to start to turn green…

  7. Still viewing this has Major 3 of Primary 5…. from 2023…. 2177 is the target

  8. torehund says:

    Could rut go into a squeeze here ?

  9. mnfandmno says:

    S&P Primary 2 was only 25% retracement and now Primary 4 has also done only 25% retracement. This seems to be the sign of an extended Primary Wave 5, i.e. S&P target seems to be around 3300.

  10. stcoleridge says:

    How will raising rates thus strengthening the USD further help?

    • Dex T says:

      “help” maybe isn’t the best word to use because someone is going to get hurt in the game. Whether it’s emerging markets, U.S. equities, the U.S. dollar, inflation or the debt that the Reserve has to pay etc… One activity can affect another area negatively.

      I don’t know what the Fed really has in mind as it’s priority other than try to maintain steady growth without rocking the boat but they may want to try and decouple themselves from European markets and weakness.

  11. torehund says:

    I think I should call Diana shipping and ask how many times they are going to sniff at that ugly bottom…🙂 It hurts all thats Free in this world🙂

  12. Hard to fathom with DAX up 244 the US markets don t get dragged up toward 2100 today.

    • Dex T says:

      It’s the day before Thanksgiving. Many people are off today, traveling and will be leaving increasingly as the day goes on.

      For Germans it’s business as usual- and it sounds like they may be getting an additional present from Santa aka Draghi while we here in the U.S. may be get a big lump of coal from Grinch Yellen.

      • …and coal is REALLY worthless these days…lol.My own opinion is no matter what–at least initially,the dollar sells off after the Fed meeting. (At least I hope so).Happy Thanksgiving Dex,Mr C,Fiona,EL Mat and all who I shoot the sheet with on here.

  13. ABchart says:

    Happy hollidays to all.

    – Rumor that ECB will add €25 billions to the QE next meeting (December 3)
    – Rumor that ECB will lower deposit rates by 0.20 to 0.25 PB (December 3)

    Source: Les Echos (french economic news paper)

    ES: despit the context of yesterday, still swing target 2118. Today target may be 2097.

    • mjtplayer says:

      ECB QE is bearish for US stocks – just an FYI. It’s bullish for the Dollar, which prices US stocks lower – fewer stronger Dollars needed to purchase the same share value.

      Fact: the ECB and BOJ have been printing money faster than all get-out, yet US stocks are dead flat over the past 1 year.

      It’s also bearish for commodities and EM. if the ECB adds to QE, then the Dollar could break-out and the Euro a break-down, further crushing commodity related companies and countries. This could very well trigger the next crisis – EM debt

  14. purplember says:

    tony, if 2097 isn’t hit and we head lower, does that mean we’re in C wave of minor 2 ?

  15. vannic99 says:


    I assume then that if we exceed 2097 and then drop back down for Int I that the bull extends further into 2016 than the current view and that some of your higher targets are back on the table?

  16. rc1269 says:

    Morning, Tony.

    I found an interesting phrase in today’s ECB presser:
    “Misaligned asset prices are a key vulnerability in that they could potentially lead, at some point, to sharp adjustments of risk premia,” according to the report.

    So there you have it, directly from the bubble-blower’s mouth. Asset prices are misaligned, and there is no mystery about which direction that misalignment is. If they were not misaligned it wouldn’t be necessary to call them out as a “key vulnerability.”

    food for thought, y’all

  17. manunidhi21 says:

    Namaste Tony!
    Any view about how Sc are defined here

  18. Arthur Knopf says:

    Using “synthetic” put/call ratios

    Having completed most of the sentiment tool creation for the S&P, I was curious about developing other sentiment tools that could be applied to a variety of investments.

    One idea was the use of “synthetic” put/call ratios created with leveraged long/short ETF pairs. To test this idea for the S&P I tried both the 2X SDS/SSO pair and the 3X SPXU/UPRO pair. The results were somewhat better than I expected, with comparable results to other sentiment measures. Here is the result for the SPXU/UPRO pair using dollar volume from the period Jan 2013 thru Nov 2015.

    Here you can see that as sentiment remained highly bearish throughout 2013, the SPX rose 30%. Then as bearish sentiment fell to lower levels in mid 2014, the returns for the last 18 months were about 10% and flat for 2015.

    The current sentiment position does not say anything good about future returns. Tuesday, Goldman came out a report forecasting the SPX at 2100 at the end of 2016, sentiment certainly agrees.

    Next up, HUI with DUST/NUGT.

    • Dex T says:

      I saw the Goldman story and they honestly expect the market to go another year without any significant advances or declines??

      When they issue stories like this it’s because they don’t see any areas of investment that aren’t overpriced and are of course terrified to mention bear market or recession.

      • EL MATADOR says:

        or they David Kostin just plain sucks at forecasting😉

        • Dex T says:

          That is definitely true and there is no secret to Wall Street forecasting-

          They pick a bullish target somewhat higher then the previous year and then post it. Other banks simply follow suite. They then build up a case around it. Nice safe conformist projections.

  19. blackjak100 says:

    There’s a longer term indicator I’ve been following which has yet to give a buy signal during P5 which it shouldn’t. This is not a FBR type signal which says to buy or sell at the end of each day. Point of my post is its getting close to giving a buy so I can’t help but wonder if this will turn out to be int i which ends 2100ish. GL and cheers!

    • blackjak100 says:

      Futures also indicating this may not be a ‘third of a third’. Can this change? Sure but need to see it today

      • simpleiam says:

        BJ, wondering if we see some money flow into stocks next week, being the first few days of Dec., and nearing traditional rally month. Might need that to trigger some of the various Buy signals out there.

  20. stephenk1980 says:

    Bulls to the slaughter – not long now. Still flat indices. Still buying Yen.

  21. fotis2 says:

    Keeping an eye on GDX looks like a double bottom if daily close above 1082.90 and a double top if close bellow 1068.80 unless a miracle happens technically looks like one more leg down.

  22. torehund says:


    A very nice pattern that encompass 3 different kinds of complex abcs, straight in the largest scale, intercalated and the last a 3 sectioned complex 3. Its also in a sector (dry bulk) that may turn some heads if nature cooperates…

  23. ariez5 says:

    Tony, the very small group of leaders – “FANG” – really underperformed the SPX and COMPQ today. Any thoughts?

  24. gtoptions says:

    Anyone else notice this 11/18 & 11/24 fractal? Plus how come nobody mentioned Fibonacci Day on Monday 11/23/15? Numbers look familiar.😉


  25. torehund says:


    ..escalation in Earthquakes both in Europe and mid-Americas, latest is Colima spewing in Mexico.

  26. blackjak100 says:

    Thx TC! daily, weekly, and monthly pivot at 2095. I would think for the ‘third of a third’ it would close well above this level tomorrow. Other scenario would need a close below 2095 tomorrow.

  27. I guess it s time to start adding some GDX.Did so today…will add more on weakness.A two month trade.Add em up in late January.Good luck all.Going from 4% to 20%.The + div in gold may be early but we ll see.Good luck all–and to me.

  28. torehund says:

    Tony, I am trying to think through what the market will do at THE higher order point of no return. Its on track, and it seems as if the 2s are getting ever smaller in scale, approaching the big move. I did foresee (years ago) a high frequency high amplitude link to whatever will play out, either a monster gap down or a squeeze of equal proportions. Maybe am right on this issue ?
    Building into this ultimate point of “in the zone”, the surreal feel is reinforced by bewildered politicians acting chaotically and haphazardly.
    The government here in Norway have determined to use the majority owned large companies like State-oil, Telenor and Norsk-Hydro as their own piggy banks; using their funds and revenue to pay for the cost of migrants.
    Who in their right mind would be invested in these companies ?
    Next step is expropriation of whatever private asset that still exist, formally entering the ism with a big C in front of itself.…
    All larger scales building are considered as “proper housing for refugees”, an old slaughterhouse will accommodate 1000 refugees. Nothing new is being built, and the migrants feel as if they are moving half a century (or more) backwards in time :)…
    Economy “thrives”, and even academia expands an already the over-bloated bureaucracy. The faculty of Extremism was awarded to the Capitol of Oslo, and the second largest town Bergen was granted funds for a Museums of Nazism.
    Whatever happened to joy, peace, understanding and the belief in humanity; this bull is nothing but a Goat ?

    • tony caldaro says:

      Norway is using corporate profits of majority state owned companies to fund the influx of immigrants? Guess no dividends and R&D for a while. Agree. Have no idea why investors would buy into state owned companies.
      “We are from the government, and we are here to help”

      • torehund says:

        Good find Fiona, I am amazed that the pension fund is allowed to ditch government bonds at all. I always thought they were bought and held as apart of an international agreement. As I am thinking now, they are allowed or even compelled by Brussels to sell the bonds underpinning an even more fragile real estate market in Europe.
        Norway has a bleak history of doing it right financially, sold all its gold at the ultimate bottom in early 2000, and recently sold all coal holdings (just as the Pope ordered). And as far as I know we didn’t get an ounce of Gold from joint bombing Ghadaffis empire. Thats how it goes.

  29. Normally I don’t wanna waste my time on financialreportsblog.
    He opened shorts based on his magic indicator on Nov 17, and doubled down yesterday. There is no magic here at all. Very poor execution, to say at least. And no basic price action knowledge at all based on his shorts opened on Nov 17.
    Mark my words, if he happens to be lucky and be ‘right’ for few times, he will start to charge ‘small’ fees from his stupid followers.
    It will happen, mark my words.

  30. gtoptions says:

    Thanks Tony
    Markets on a Pivot Holiday. 😉

  31. Instead of anxiety and confusion, I actually got a ton of clarity and assurance out of today’s price action. Particularly when we backed off of the highs at the close. I have to admit, had I not been a longtime follower of this blog, I’d likely not know (with any conviction) how to trade the market here. For anyone who’s followed my string of fortunate trades this year, you should know that TC’s updates and analysis, particularly his pivots, are largely responsible. I’m always amazed at the reluctance of some – the inability to just “trust” or “believe”
    I used to be “that guy” and it cost me dearly (~$220k). I had a very hard time publicly acknowledging it, ashamed of the amount but more importantly that I was so wrong. I almost swore off trading altogether. Now, those losses are in the rear view mirror, as is my reluctance to see things (and trade) differently. Without saying what my trading account is worth today (since 2012), I’ll say that I’m finally able to laugh off the losses of ’08-’11. Good Luck, Everybody! Give Thanks and Be Well 🦃

    • EL MATADOR says:

      Fantastic work Major. Comebacks are awesome. I still remember my comeback as is it was yesterday although it has been years.

    • budfox9450 says:

      You cannot justify blaming the stock market as such.
      But, you can look at your own system, or method.
      Patience is a virtue, maybe Long Term investing,
      or at intermediate lows, in a Bull market is worthy of your
      consideration. Bud…

      • Have never blamed anything or anyone for my own failures. My system/method for trading is vastly different from my investment/retirement portfolio. My long-term money has done admirably for almost three decades. Regarding Patience: I began investing monthly as a Private in the Army back in 1986. Every pay raise or promotion I increased my contribution by $50/month until I retired last year. Along the way, I purchased (and paid off) three homes -two of which I rent out (Alaska & Hawaii = high rental income), I live mortgage-free in third one here in Georgia (very low cost of living area). I’d say I’m well versed in patience and long term investing -but thanks for the tip.

    • fotis2 says:

      Mr.Market well done not many will ever admit to trading losses and yes Tony’s pivots are amazingly accurate personal experience has proved to me my view is on board when it agrees with the analysis on site.Hoping to post a similar story in the near future….

  32. ekr123 says:

    If when we go to 2097 or above, what Is the pullback level that would change the existing count?

  33. llerias7 says:

    Probably today was minor 4 of Int.III…

  34. It pulled back almost exactly to the 2070 mid-point.

  35. skmcobra says:

    It sure would be nice to see a 30 day chart. Honestly your four month chart isn’t detailed enough for current waves to be of much use imho.

  36. fbqueen3 says:

    Thanks for the update Tony. Feel like we’re in limbo land.

  37. simpleiam says:

    “However, once the market reaches SPX 2097, or higher, if it pulls back again it would indicate the entire move from SPX 2019 was Intermediate wave i. If it continues higher, like a third of a third should, then the count remains the same.”

    Aw, heck yeah! Sounds like interesting times ahead. Thanks Tony!

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