Thursday update

SHORT TERM: gap down opening, DOW -254

Overnight the Asian markets gained 1.2%. Europe opened lower and lost 1.7%. US index futures were lower overnight, and at 8:30 weekly Jobless claims were reported unchanged at 276K. The market gapped down at the open to SPX 2063. The SPX had closed at 2075 yesterday. At 10:30 the SPX had hit 2058, then rallied to 2068 just before 11am. Then the market dropped to SPX 2054 by 12:30 and tried to rally again. At 1:30 the SPX hit 2062, but headed lower once again. Heading into the close the SPX hit 2046 and closed there.

For the day the SPX/DOW lost 1.40%, and the NDX/NAZ lost 1.15%. Bonds gained 5 ticks, Crude dropped $1.30, Gold ended flat, and the USD was lower. Medium term support drops to the 2019 and 1973 pivots, with resistance at the 2070 and 2085 pivots. Tomorrow: Retail sales and the PPI at 8:30, then Consumer sentiment and Business inventories at 10am.

The market gapped down at the open to start the day, dropping well below SPX 2075. Minor wave b did end yesterday, as suspected, at SPX 2087. The pullback continued throughout the day, with a rally of 10 points and 8 points, until the market hit SPX 2046 at the close. The current decline from SPX 2087 is a bit larger than the waves we have seen since this Major 4 pullback began. This may not mean anything, or it may suggest Minor c will travel straight down with no minute wave reversals. The daily RSI is already oversold. Now we are watching the hourly MACD. Short term support is at SPX 2040 and the 2019 pivot, with resistance at the 2070 and 2085 pivots. Short term momentum ended the day quite oversold. Best to your Friday the 13th trading!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend

LONG TERM: bull market


About tony caldaro

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264 Responses to Thursday update

  1. Dex T says:

    Oil looks terrible. It has retraced most of the move up to 50. The market action is saying that OPEC won’t be lowering production at their December meeting.

  2. Jim Guthery says:

    PV Please start soon, I am starting to sweat buckets!

  3. simpleiam says:

    There’s still plenty of room around 2019 pivot area for this to be int. A, with a B rise next week, then, down to 2019 pivot area again, only into the lower portion of the pivot range. IMO

  4. well all i can tell at this point is that the winners (with much moore safety) are the ones who will go into action only next week I just don’t see any reason to buy an upside right now .have a great week end folks …. my 2 cents

    • llerias7 says:

      Gap up and go monday…a long way to 2200´s (January 1st week – my take).

    • quantmaven says:

      I think we have some odds of tanking more sunday after 6pm until European trading time where we make the final low and open up monday in the US.

    • quantmaven says:

      I agree with you, unless we have a miraculous rally in the last 5min, it is not worth buying at all until maybe Sunday night or Monday morning.

  5. fotis2 says:

    Is this it? carefully now as they say top and bottom pickers become cotton pickers….

  6. Page says:

    Market is so much Oversold now that I am almost certain now today’s close will be the low and it is going higher next week 🙂

  7. quantmaven says:

    We might have a capitulation move by closing time maybe 2010. Lower low…

  8. rc1269 says:

    at least we’re getting a little +div on the 60min at these lower lows. fwiw

  9. fotis2 says:

    Hey Tony your pivots are magnetized methinks. 😉

  10. EL MATADOR says:

    SPX P5 is wedging like it or not. depending on how deep wave D retraces will determine whether P5 makes a marginal new ath or truncates. But no doubt about it it is wedging. look at the other indexes like NYA already overlap what most traders were calling wave 1

    look at this chart and tell me if you still think it will not wedging. pay very close attention to the gaps created during this decline. we had a common gap that was followed by a break out gap followed by a run away gap. today gap could be either a 2nd run away gap or and exhaustion gap.

  11. llerias7 says:

    Let keep it simple and straight. spx is making a floor all day in 2026…inside the OEW2019 pivot. Might be enough to finish major 4…rebound next week expected.

  12. Quantmaven at least 2020 is in my view in the cards .I would add that i won’t eer go long as long as stochastsics are both under 20 and ready at least to cross themself to the upside .Another thing i want to see is a hit lower Bollinger band at a minimum, currently at 2017.With this kind of market it seems that 1990 is a real possibility before any sustainable bounce .Lets see what future will bring us patience required in my iew cheers

    • oups i mean ” as long as stochastsics are both NOT under 20 and ready at least to cross themself to the upside”

    • quantmaven says:

      Hourly stochastic? Well personally I am looking either 1) to retouch the downward channel support OR 2) see some exhaustion wedge forming up in the next couple hours that would mark 5 of A of IV. IV being potential a very large triangle that could last maybe less than a month then we have a Xmas rally V going into 2016.

      • quantmaven says:

        or 3) a breakout of the downward resistance, which we are kinda teetering and close at the moment.

      • no quantmaven i mean daily stochstics actually at 3.122 and 11.,53 For example this was in the same configuration last augsut but spx was still trading at 1930 or so…..when the started to be ready to cross we were at 1890 or so … this is an insurance indicator to me, really pay attention to them

  13. quantmaven says:

    For those looking for an intraday update:

    As long as the downward channel holds, it is not worth going long at this point. It seems 2020 could very well be in the cards in the next couple hours.

  14. Dex T says:

    Goldman doesn’t have much faith in metals. I’m guessing they aren’t long gold or silver.

    Goldman: Only China can save metals

    “Only a major pick-up in Chinese demand is likely to be sufficient to balance metals markets such as copper and aluminum,” Goldman said in a Thursday note. “This is because metals supply generally continues to grow, while Chinese demand is not, so demand has to work hard to catch up.”

    The bank noted that its GS China Metals Consumption Index, which is based on physical output data for commodity-consuming components of China’s industrial production sector, remained in sharply negative territory year-on-year, similar to the index’s performance during the 2008-09 Global Financial Crisis.

  15. Arthur Knopf says:

    The worst thing that can happen here for the bulls is a hold above the SPX 2019 pivot most of the day to suck in the BTFDers then a close below it (maybe 2010ish), setting up a hard gap down on Mon thus repeating the end of Aug Thur-Mon crash.

  16. stcoleridge says:

    NDX is about as oversold now on the hourly as it was at the Major 2 low. SPX not so much.

  17. johnnymagicmoney says:

    Tony if its INT A of Major 4 what would be your target or INT B??

  18. phil1247 says:

    first time a rally seems to hold .618

    trying a TINY long here

  19. lunker1 says:

    2026 might have been a of c of C and 2041 was b of c of C
    still might get 2020

  20. prakashbkc says:

    GM TC sir,

    the rise from 2026 to 2041 is 15 which is larger than any rise in this 80 point fall make u think completion of major 4 ?

  21. manunidhi21 says:

    From Tony’s Tuesday update.
    “The action from yesterday’s low looks like a counter-trend Minor wave b rally. When it concludes we would expect lower lows to follow to complete Int. wave a. No price target for these little waves, but still expect a Major wave 4 low between the 2019 pivot and SPX 2040”

    No Questions.period.

  22. AB je ne pense pas que l’on soit sorti de l’auberge avec ce marché a l’heure actuelle spx 2040

    • spx 2039 believe it or not i think more downside to come after this bounce. it takes more than a couple of hours to change trend after market has broen some important technical levels stochastics , macd and my other indicators are not telling me a change is yet to come.

    • ABchart says:

      Salut Winnintech,
      La cassure de 2032 sur l’ES (haut de l’auction, qui aurait due provoquer un décalage vers le haut) n’a pas attiré de volumes. Du coup on revient vers le bas, dans la même auction 2030 – 2014
      Je suis ça de près. Déjà acheteur sur FDAX et FCE mais de temps en temps je sors partiellement pour couvrir les positions restantes. Nous sommes très proches de la fin de la baisse. De toute façon ce n’est pas une baisse dangereuse car il y a tout le temps des rebonds jusqu’à 150 points sur le FDAX.

      • AB ES a tout simplent atteint sa resisitance ades chandeliers 2032 et nous des le beune “bearish hourly candl”e tres net

        • quantmaven says:

          La correction depuis le rally jjusqu’à 2036.5 sur l’ES intraday est trop importante pour être une vague 4 ce qui signifie qu’on risque fortement de retoucher le bas ou faire un nouveau bas en aprèm.

          • absolument quantmaven 🙂 contrairememnt avec tout le respect queje dois a AB, ce marché est plus dangereux que la plupart pense…dans tout les cas je serais tres surpris de ne pas voir moins de 2020 spx et ca .peut aller jusqu’à 1990 avant un veritable mouvement a la hausse.A present c’est risqué de prendre une solide position selon moi.La semaine prochaine amenera a coup sur une tres bonne opportunnité de gagner beaucoup d’argent …simplement pas un vendredi 13 (lol ) juste avant le weekend. patience patience ..cheers

        • simpleiam says:

          I agree with renaissance. Please use English so we all can learn. It’s also considered impolite to speak in another language that excludes most of those in attendance. I understand that you are NOT being impolite intentionally; we have the same problems here in Texas, only the language is Spanish. English, please?

      • magnus1234 says:

        AB. Déjà à long DAX. Pour moi, il est un fait accompli. Comme nous le disions plus tôt …;-)

      • No offense intended, but this board is so helpful to so many. When you speak in a foreign language (french), it leaves most of out of the loop and the learning/education it may afford. Thanks for understanding.

  23. kevinm76 says:

    I see Patrick M( btw, who is he?) has removed the A of the Gold chart. All those a,b’s are confusing and not reflecting what is really happening in the precious metals complex. The entire complex curently is clearly in a of 5( of an ending diagonal) and has a pattern of a wedge or ending diagonal. The structure meets all the requirements for such patterns mentioned. I’m surprised this is not discussed more. The precious metals complex is quite clean. This is what I’m seeing


  24. NYSE got up to 10600(my area for reversal 10600-10800) at 10150.Is this the start of the November hammer i m watching for?Major 5 is all that s in the way..Can t argue with the roll MR C has been on….otherwise i d say we re reversing here.Lots of October profits people need to take.

  25. torehund says:

    Crude testing weekly bottom…just need Lee to pul out the plug..:)

  26. mjtplayer says:

    This mornings low of SPX 2,026 might have been it for int A – thoughts?

  27. ABchart says:

    ES: right now, the auction range is from 2032 to 2014. But if we break 2032 with some volumes, I think the decline from november 3 is over.

  28. quantmaven says:

    I see an inverted triangle formation between 10:15am and now, This would be bearish but if price goes above 2033 then it would invalidate.

  29. gtoptions says:

    Thanks Tony
    + 1 Lees comment below.
    SPX ~
    GL & Good Weekend All

  30. chrisk44342 says:

    classic w pattern on es 5 min

  31. phil1247 says:

    no chance for rally until extension short .618 level is broken

    looking possible here

  32. johnnymagicmoney says:

    Ok in Tony I trust – 2026 is close enough for me for the 2020 pivot ……………I unwound all shorts (that I put in around 2110) and went 100% long just now……………………I dont believe the market is ready for a bear as bad as the global macro is ……………….but BTFD is not dead yet……….looking for that one last push from here. Tony has been spot on so I am going with him again.

    • buddyglove says:

      Agree with Johnym and magnus and I am nibbling here @2030. GL to us all.

      • BuddyGlove, Unconfirmed reports suggest, that On Aug 22, 2015, when your call on Long SPX (SPX at 21030, Nikkei, HK, failed, (SPX collapsed to 1868 in next 6 trading sessions), you moved to council house in East midlands? ..and after your BUY at 1898 with 200:1 leverage with spreadbet succeeded, you moved back to where you were, Can you please confirm these rumours? Honestly, “Packers and Movers” should have your phone number as “speed dial”.

        In Madrid for weekend now, but flying back Sunday (just in case you are monitoring my IP Address)!!

        As I am on this blog only for a day, I did not kick him (I am not talking of BG), he went bcos his call failed, he came back when SPX fell to 1880. This week, he was against FRB, he failed there as well.

        Before, I go, any TDH (tom, dick and Harry) in the UK says “we are watching you”, So I am saying “I am watching you”.

        Likes of me and Dsoble have done gr8 favour on you all by containing rashly Bullish sentiment, to an extent we have disciplined blogger as well, who said SPX to go to 2500 (..and that was NOT on the basis of OEW, but on the basis of Draghi QE, Now as per OEW, Draghi QE cant basis for projections). Problem with blogger is, he is armymen, who are nationalist and see positive (for nation) in every negative.

        Finally, Bald Brainless ben Beranke’s major theory “high stock prices result in high Personal Consumption (one component of GDP)” has failed. I will fail few more of his theories, It is for you Americans to hunt him. Now, he is blaming Congress.

        • fotis2 says:

          Shrihas long time no see hope you are well man.

          • Fotis2, I am fantastic. Hope all is well with you and Greece!!

            To, rest of the guys and lovely girls, I am not messaging anymore…

            and to, “Sandra Dons”, pl. don’t take it personally, “Booking losses is good for health..enjoy your time. money comes and goes..” there will be Major opportunity on 16 Dec. till 26 Jan

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