Wednesday update

SHORT TERM: another choppy day, DOW -56

Overnight the Asian markets were mixed. Europe opened higher and gained 0.6%. US index futures were also higher overnight, and the market opened three points above yesterday’s SPX 2082 close. After a tick up to SPX 2086 the market pulled back to 2075 just before 11am. Then the market rallied to a slightly higher high at SPX 2087 by 12:30. After that it headed back down into a SPX 2075 close.

For the day the SPX/DOW lost 0.30%, and the NDX/NAZ lost 0.20%. Bonds slid 5 ticks, Crude dropped $1.20, Gold slipped $4, and the USD was lower too. Medium term support remains at the 2070 and 2019 pivots, with resistance at the 2085 and 2131 pivots. Tomorrow: weekly Jobless claims at 8:30, a speech from FED chair Yellen at 9:30, and a speech from FED vice chair Fischer at 6pm.

The market opened higher today, dropped down to SPX 2075, then made a higher high at 2087. That last spurt could have been the high for Minor wave b: 2083-2070-2087. When the market drops below today’s SPX 2075 low we will label it as such. For now we have placed a tentative green label at SPX 2087. This Major wave 4 decline has been quite organized, with 30+ point declines and 10+ point retraces. If it remains this way it will be easier to identify the low. Short term support is at the 2070 pivot and SPX 2040, with resistance at the 2085 pivot and SPX 2120. Short term momentum did hit overbought at today’s high then declined. Best to your trading!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend

LONG TERM: bull market


About tony caldaro

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204 Responses to Wednesday update

  1. simpleiam says:

    Some real selling into the close here. An interesting Friday awaits us.
    Thanks Tony!

  2. Thanks Tony for your tireless effort here.

    Current move down from last Tuesday’s, Friday’s and this past Tuesday’s Sell Signals has unfolded very nicely, could get a bounce tomorrow or Monday, which would likely generate another Sell Signal and push the market down again to lower lows. Details at for those who would like more context.

  3. Sold SPXU at 32.48 (bought at $29.75, S&P 2,112). Last trade of the year, UPRO, on deck for completion of Pri V.

  4. Tony market is still near 2050 and near the lows …30 minutes to go, if no rebound and SPX not holding 2050 we might see 2040 soon

  5. rc1269 says:

    still believe this, fwiw

    rc1269 says:
    November 2, 2015 at 8:55 am
    Great place for long term investors to start peeling off some chunky pieces of equity exposure.

    By far the least attractive equity market since late 2007. IMO. Right now is one of those times where everything the market is giving you is a gift.

    Other than companies buying their own shares or the shares of their competitors, I don’t see any meaningful driver for domestic shares to go higher. That doesn’t mean they can’t – for a while – it just means that people who are buying now won’t likely be seeing much additional return on that new position.

    That’s just my opinion based on company fundamentals and macro econ. If we’re strictly talking technicals, well i think it’s often good practice to start to look to peel back anytime PV get’s back to the P3 top, particularly if other markets (such as credit, in this case) are singaling there could be a reasonable chance for a failed 5th, or a 5th that just matches the 3rd.

    i’ll refrain from also re-posting the immediately ensuing ridicule that followed this post…

    • tony caldaro says:

      probably from someone who owns AMZN

    • johnnymagicmoney says:

      you make some great calls RC and I say this with respect and with some humor (partly because I am arrogant about my own talents in life) ……………

      you and many others on here have this never ending itch of telling others how right they are. Good thing no one on here has an ego. =)

      • rc1269 says:

        merely a reminder of my stance Johnny, since there are some on here who enjoy putting words in my mouth and/or implying i say things that i actually haven’t. but then again, if it happens to be right too… well good sir, there’s nothing i can do about that can i. 😉

        • johnnymagicmoney says:

          those who say do not know and those who know do not say. Take the righteous path RC and your silence will speak to your brillance and humility. Either that or blast the fukers for their financial heresy.

  6. Lee X says:

    Thanks Tony

    I like where your head is at
    You’re a chill individual 😉

  7. Walter Crane says:

    I posted a week ago that it was the top and that this is a big wave coming down. Not totally right yet, but I just don’t see what others C… I am looking for 1908 spx. Still.

  8. johnnymagicmoney says:

    hey AB – I think I may have spoke too soon!!! That 54 level getting taken out ………………glad I held my shorts =)

    Russell not looking good.

  9. simpleiam says:

    From CNBC front page – “Barclays: Buy the coming Market sell-offs”

    How elementary and obvious can it get? Yeah, I’m sure Barclays would love us all to go rushing in to buy and hold. As usual, the greedy little songbirds are all giving interviews. Wonder if they give an interview when they think it’s time to sell?

  10. Tony Jordan says:

    Majority of evidence suggests to me int. a likely done at 2054/17487. Would like to have seen the Daffy DAX put in a lower low today versus Tuesday but it couldn’t quite get there (10735 vs 10729 on Tues.). In another dialect it certainly qualifies as a double bottom but from a EW perspective I would’ve preferred a LL today. Probably a slightly different count to SPX/INDU so I’ll give it the benefit of the bullish doubt for now. First rally off the day’s lows currently being corrected. If its int. b in play then we should have a strong move up for the 3rd wave with 2 hours to go.

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