Tuesday update

SHORT TERM: choppy day, DOW +28

Overnight the Asian markets lost 1.0%. Europe opened lower and finished mixed. US index futures were lower overnight, and at 8:30 Export (-0.3% v -0.6%)/Import (-0.3% v -0.3%) prices were both reported lower. The market opened three points below yesterday’s SPX 2079 close, dropped to 2073 in the opening minutes, then bounced to 2080 by 10am. At 10am Wholesale inventories were reported higher: +0.5% v +0.1%. The market then pulled back to SPX 2070 by 10:30. After that it started to rally in a choppy fashion. Just before 3pm the SPX hit 2084, then dipped to close at 2082.

For the day the SPX/DOW gained 0.15%, and the NDX/NAZ lost 0.25%. Bonds gained 5 ticks, Crude rose 25 cents. Gold slipped $2, and the USD was higher. Medium term support remains at the 2070 ands 2019 pivots, with resistance at the 2085 and 2131 pivots. Tomorrow is Veterans day.

The market opened slightly lower today, dropped to SPX 2070, and then rallied above yesterday’s 2083 high. With today’s action we can now count an abc zigzag from SPX 2116 to 2068, and labeled that Minor wave a. The action from yesterday’s low looks like a counter-trend Minor wave b rally. When it concludes we would expect lower lows to follow to complete Int. wave a. No price target for these little waves, but still expect a Major wave 4 low between the 2019 pivot and SPX 2040. Short term support is at the 2070 pivot and SPX 2040, with resistance at the 2085 pivot and SPX 2120. Short term momentum continued its move higher and remained above neutral all day. Best to your trading!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend

LONG TERM: bull market

CHARTS: http://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

About tony caldaro

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186 Responses to Tuesday update

  1. Gary Lewis says:

    I’m watching for the market to continue down tomorrow, perhaps to Tony’s P4 2040 level. Then Friday would bring on a three-day test of the high. The last time we had this possible setup a few weeks back, the at the money calls at the open on Friday (for that day’s expiration) were like 0.25 and finished up more than 10 times. Worth watching and putting a few bucks on if it looks like it will play out.

    • Gary Lewis says:

      whoops, correction, I had the weekly chart up, not the daily. Never mind . . .Looks like we will be down into next week and then the up move should come the following week.

  2. pbnj123 says:

    Good afternoon sir
    A couple of days ago (I cannot locate the post) you mentioned that the lower target for PV may be lower than the current lowest target of 2214-2219 – did I red that right?
    Are you expecting PV to come in lower than that first lowest target?
    Thank you in advance

  3. phil1247 says:

    shorts have been trading perfectly since noon high

    barring a miracle stick save overnite we are probably going to gap down in am for 3 of C

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