Monday update

SHORT TERM: gap down opening, DOW -180

Overnight the Asian markets gained 0.3%. European markets opened lower and lost 1.3%. US index futures were lower overnight and the market gapped down to SPX 2091 at the open. The market had closed at SPX 2099 on Friday. With only a 3 point bounce along the way, the market declined to SPX 2068 by noon. Then the market tried to rally. The rally hit SPX 2078 by 2:30, pulled back 2072 just past 3pm, then hit 2083 just before a 2079 close.

For the day the SPX/DOW lost 1.00%, and the NDX/NAZ lost 1.05%. Bonds lost 4 ticks, Crude slipped 25 cents, Gold rose $3, and the USD was lower. Medium term support drops to the 2070 and 2019 pivots, with resistance at the 2085 and 2131 pivots. Tomorrow: Export/Import prices at 8:30, then Wholesale inventories at 10am.

The market gapped down at the open for the first time since the end of October. After breaking through recent support at SPX 2084 the market slid to 2068 by noon. During the slide we updated the hourly/daily charts to display a Major wave 3 high at SPX 2116, and Major wave 4 underway. The current decline is the largest, 48 points, since Major wave 2 was underway in September. Thus far we see a corrective pullback from the Major wave 3 high: 2090-2104-2084-2099-2068-2083. Since Major wave 2 was a multi-week event, we are expecting Major 4 to also take some time to unfold. This would suggest the market could continue to be choppy for the next couple of weeks. Too early to suggest a Major 4 pattern, but a flat alternating with the Major wave 2 irregular zigzag would not surprise. Short term support is now at the 2070 pivot and the SPX 2040’s, with resistance at the 2085 pivot and SPX 2120. Short term momentum was quite oversold at today’s lows, then rose to near neutral during the rally. Best to your trading!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend

LONG TERM: bull market


About tony caldaro

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175 Responses to Monday update

  1. Here is a perfect example of why it is useful to keep an alternate count going – in real time – because black A-B-C and blue 1-2-3 are equivalent until they are not. In this cash Sp500 15-min real-time chart, there has been no overlap upward yet. If there is or should be, it would help rule out the blue 1-2-3-4 ..

    SPX - Fifteen Minute - Nov-10 1435 PM (15 min)

  2. Rodneysussman says:


    Sent from my iPad


  3. Tony you see market going down from here in the next 2 weeks right?
    not much upside from hereif at all in my view

  4. rc1269 says:

    MCD downgraded to BBB+ by S&P. a seminal event for a company that spent decades rated AA. welcome to the world of share buybacks, where one eviscerates their own credit in order to try to counterbalance flagging business prospects, rather than… actually fixing your business. thank you Fed, may i have another.

    • tony caldaro says:

      “in order to try to counterbalance flagging business prospects, rather than… actually fixing your business”
      The bubble is not in tech, or housing or biotech this time around.
      It is in corporate governance: corporate culture greed is in a bubble.

      • Tony that’s why Gold and silver will go to the roof in the next couple of years

      • fotis2 says:

        Greed one of 7 deadly sins a form of Idolatry of Self wherein the subjective reigns over the objective I try to always keep that in mind easy to fall prey to.

      • 7dayyss says:

        Don’t you think greed has been around in corporate culture for years Tony? Isn’t that what caused S & L debacle, along with the congressmen that let it happen.
        How about the repeal of Glass-Steagall. The leverage applied by Lehman or Bear Stearns and others that actually caused the crash . All the shenanigans during the dot com bubble. Not playing devils advocate or to provoke you, but to me, it’s always been around.

        • tomasso60 says:

          agreed and witnessed during my working life within publicly traded companies on both sides of border.
          the top few work towards anyway in which to enrich themselves and board of directors at expense of many

        • tony caldaro says:

          Agree, but not as wide spread as is it now.
          Why borrow money to buy back stock?
          It doesn’t increase shareholder equity.

      • EL MATADOR says:

        IMO, the bubble is not in one area but multiple areas. but the two biggest are Govt and Corporate governance with both in a culture greed bubble

      • trondack says:

        I think President Obama is a “Star Trek” fan. Maybe he should award an annual Ferengi award to the most deserving company!

      • uncle10 says:

        Agree Tony.
        Observing the people that have worked at Goldman and their positions now is stunning. It seems like all over the world anyone with any power has worked at Goldman. The whole system seems to be controlled by the “insiders” and most all of them have ties to Goldman. Its not going to be easy to get any real change. I was hoping the 2008 crisis would help get some things changed instead it got worse.😦
        Todays model: lay off employees, , grant options/restricted stock, borrow billions, buy back shares…. rinse, repeat..

      • rc1269 says:

        it truly is the worst i have seen in my lifetime, or read about in any others. at least coming out of the great depression there was the opportunity for a sense of rebirth and resurgence, and with thatcame pride and innovation. our bailout, handout world never allowed our collective psyche to come clean, and therefore we’ve lost our will to build anew, at least for a time. it is human nature to find inspiration in adversity, and lethargy in excess. we’ve devolved at the highest levels of society and enterprise to instant gratification-seeking wealth hoarders. even college students of today spend more time whining about getting their ‘fair share’ and crying afoul of ‘you looked at me funny’ microaggressions, rather than working to build something new and great and focusing on making themselves the better person.
        sorry… major digression. apologies

        • purplember says:

          RC, we needed a cleansing after 2008 crisis but fed bailed out wall st. that’s why no change. business cycle has ups and downs…. rececssions and depressions get rid of the bad and bad business models

        • tony caldaro says:

          There is a solution.
          Governments always treat corporations with special handling because they say they create jobs. When in fact, corporations increase payrolls during economic expansions and contract payrolls during contractions. It is really small businesses that create jobs. During expansions many new businesses are created. Just look at all the startups.
          Since the purpose of a company is to sell a product/service for profit, so they can grow. And, they hire more people to do that.
          Mega mergers and mega companies are counter productive to society. They not only do not create more jobs, they create less jobs by reducing redundancy in their work force, and stymie competition.
          Propose that the G20 creates a regulation, worldwide, that no company can have a market cap larger than 1% of their home base GDP. In the US that would mean that no company can have a market cap larger than $180bn. If they maintain a market cap above $180bn for over one year, they have to break into smaller companies. This would create more jobs and stop these useless economically destructive mega mergers.
          If governments are really interested in creating jobs corporations have to be smaller. Smaller companies means more jobs, more competition, more innovation, and less lobbying at the stockholders expense.

  5. fotis2 says:

    Close above 2082.85=DB target =2093

  6. AB ‘SPY is coming into “the zone”

    • ABchart says:

      Je suis sorti manger à l’extérieur en famille.
      ES actuellement à 2080 (4h40 à Paris). On devrait en rester là, ou monter maximum à 2086 avec l’ouverture de l’Europe, et rechuter à 2056 (SPX 2061 sur mon chart posté ce matin) dans les heures qui viennent..
      En revanche, il faut faire attention avec l’Opex qu’ils peuvent coincider avec la int.[b] (2080 max 2086 sur le chart) avant de baisser vers 2030/40 vers le 25 novembre.
      C’est comme ça que je vois les choses pour le moment. En cas d’ajustement, je posterais ça prochainement.

  7. mjtplayer says:

    Boring day, it “feels” like a “B” wave

  8. simpleiam says:

    Tony, your pivots are phenomenal! Thank you!

    Lunker, I’m still watching the advanced count you posted a few weeks ago. Pretty darned good. Much appreciated!

  9. H D says:

    No ‘signals’ to report but I am a fan of pivot ping pong.

    Tomorrow will a pretty flat day I suppose. That’s my prediction and I will type ad nauseam if correct. Have a great 1.

    • simpleiam says:

      Oh, I get signals all the time, through the amalgams in my teeth, even thought the dentist removed them years ago! What do you think that means?… (LMAO/Snort!) I’m sorry, just couldn’t help myself. My 2nd post, so I’ll shut up for now.

  10. fishonhook says:

    FRB- less talk and just calling the turns as you see it with your secret indicator would gain you even more credibility.

    think about it, most comments here are trying to justify their count or some pattern. Now you don’t share your secret sauce with us so why all verbiage?

    better to say “My system just went long” “My system just went short”. “My indicator just went flat”
    Ignore other posters and let your track record speak for you

  11. sibyn says:

    DAX: NSW done… Down we go from 10850

  12. EL MATADOR says:

    IMO, There is only one way bears can put an END the Bull Party, and that is to bust up the OEX (S&P 100 index). Every high flying alpha stock (meaning most influential high quality stock) is in that index. When that OEX tops the Bullish Pyramid is going to collapse.

    • johnnymagicmoney says:

      well lets look at the big boys

      Banks – WFC, JPM just hit major resistance (WFC getting there)

      Staples – T & VZ look bad here and falling

      JNJ, PG, DIS – look good shorter term but monthly charts look like crap still

      PFE – just hit major resistance and backed off

      AAPL – Apple – 50/50 could go either way

      CVX, XOM – short term very strong but way overextended here – monthlys look like crap

      MSFT, AMZN, FB, GOOG – charts are hot and strong but man o man they are way overextended over their averages and need to come back to earth

      yes the latter 4 are sure holding up the market but as a whole the longer term charts are still messy and broken. Like others have said ceratin sectors or styles are already in their bear which makes me think a bear is around the corner. You dont have this many groups in bears if the overall market is going to go on for a long time. I think the energy like stocks are leading the market

  13. Bringing the below thread up here so it doesn’t get lost in the weeds and on the chance other readers might find it helpful.

    Tom, that’s fantastic, nice call, always good to see people making money in the market!

    There are many different ways to do so. I used to apply a collection of methods like you and Red do, which is the best approach in my view. Now I just use my indicator’ Signals but I think each person should use whatever works best for him/her. The bottom line is to USE the market to make money and thus better one’s own and other people’s lives to whatever extent possible. Tony is a shining example of this.

    • Nky says:

      FRB: You’ve made good calls & deserve credit for that as anyone who followed you would have made money. But do you really need to waste your time for all the explanations (as seen below) over & again? If your indicator is so great as you claim to be, & it’s been indeed looking good to me so far, why not just let it do all the talking? Trust me it’d speak much louder and a million times more effective than any words you’d ever say. See Tony as an example; you’d never hear him say “look, I just nailed it, again!!”- no matter how many times he actually did. And without all those controversial posts, there would be no confusion or misleading to anyone, that you seem to be so concerned about. You know even with perfect explanations, people will tend to hear what they want to hear anyway. And your explanations aren’t near perfection. There is that “my indicator is the best ever, you losers (whoever not following) really suck!” tone that sounds so arrogant & condescending, I’d not expect it to be too hard for someone so intelligent like yourself to appreciate why so many get annoyed even when you are making a great call. Many consider dsoble to be arrogant & condescending, because he pokes fun at everyone on this blog, including our gracious host, but he does so to himself too, and that’s enough humanity in my book. I think it’s something lacking in some of your posts.

      • Gary Lewis says:

        NKY , if you don’t like his comments, just don’t read them. For me, FRB has made me money so he can gloat all he wants. There are certainly many commentors on this blog that I ignore. They talk and talk but as you say, their track records speak for their credibility.

      • I’ll keep my comments here fewer and shorter out of deep respect for Tony, and I echo every word you said about him.

        When a person finds something that has changed his life and been

        Thanks again Tony, overall a great forum. such a blessing, I think that most people – myself included – would want to share that from the mountaintops and seek to benefit as many other people as possible. That was entirely my intent. The overwhelming majority of people agree with me based on their emails, but I certainly understand how some could mistake that as boasting or condescending, rightly or wrongly such is human nature.

        A lot of people asked me to post my market calls here. I will continue to do so and honor their requests but will no longer seek to help the skeptics – you’re right, it’s not worth the time or effort, as well-intended as it was.we could get a Signal at the close today, should know for sure by 3:45 p.m. or so!

        • Nky says:

          Don’t get me wrong, I just tried to be constructive.
          BTW, anyone can gloat all they want for their good calls, I have no issue with that, as long as they own up the bad ones(not just disappear in that case).

          • I don’t think gloating or boasting is EVER good, that certainly wasn’t my intent, but otherwise I agree with your post completely Nky.

            I’ll let the people decide. If enough people indicate that my Signals are of help and value to them, I’ll keep it going; otherwise I’m more than happy to just keep trading them for my own benefit. It’s all good!

  14. ABchart says:

    ES: bullish imabalance 2079.25

  15. argento1 says:

    Financialreportsblog…well done on calling the top of this phase!!


    • Thanks Argento! the thing I love most about my indicator is that it calls turns at the very Top and Bottom, versus needing to wait for “confirmation” and thus miss out on a lot of the easy money. This, along with its consistency and accuracy, is what sets it apart from anything else I’ve ever seen. I don’t expect it to ever stop working so well because I think I’ve tapped into what truly controls the market, but that’s always a possibility so I’m just making all the money from it that I can and making a mint while the getting is good. I started trading using only my indicator/Signals and in less than a year I never have to work again for the rest of my life so it’s already been a major, life-changing blessing. Hopefully it will keep on keeping on so others can also be blessed by it.

      The next Signal is usually just around the corner so stay tuned for the next opportunity…

      • ABchart says:

        FRB, with all the money you won with your indicator, you are perhaps closest to appear in the ranking of Forbes?😉

      • aahmichael says:

        How about that. After more than 100 years of market action, someone has finally discovered the holy grail.

        • Hi Michael, I know you tend to be a negative person based on your posts here to various people, but I’ll spend one minute replying to you: I encourage you to not believe in holy grails, but simply look at my indicator’s results and if you’re rational I think you’ll conclude that it’s the closest thing you’ve ever seen.

          Here’s a fun challenge: look at the first five (at least, the more the better) Signals posted BEFORE-the-fact in REAL-TIME on my blog – – and if you find ANYONE ANYWHERE with said results, let me know. I doubt I’ll be hearing from you but let’s see.

          Whiningtech went against my indicator Friday afternoon and got hammered GL

          • cut the shit! be humble a bit and don’t say hilarious and false things ! I had no positions at all Ok? LAST FRIDAY we had a very bullish candle and absolut no sell signals i repeat no sell signals

          • No, YOU didn’t see any Sell Signal. That’s the whole point, you just said it yourself better than I ever could have.

            Those who listened to me on Friday made money. Anyone foolish enough, given your posts, attitude, vulgar language, anger, etc., DIDN’T make money or LOST money. It’s not a matter of opinion or subjective in any way. Anyone can simply look at the top of Tony’s Thursday Update and see for themselves, with their own eyes, and draw their own conclusion.

            You’re a newbie here and based on your posts so far, don’t seem to be very good at predicting the market. That’s okay, you’re not alone, but don’t mislead people. I’ll leave it at that as your own words have said it all. Best of luck man.

          • aahmichael says:

            With all due respect, I’m not negative at all. I’m a realist. I’ve been writing trading systems for 30 years, and have seen 100’s of systems from other folks. No single indicator will ever be correct 100% of the time as you claim your magic indicator is, and if someone tells me that they have an indicator that’s been backtestested and it’s never been wrong, then I know it’s over-optimized, and it’s only a matter of time before it crashes and burns.

            There are only two types of indicators: overbought/oversold, and trend following. That’s it. In a trending market, OB/OS indicators get killed, and in a sideways market, trend following indicators get chopped to pieces. A comprehensive trading system must incorporate both types of indicators, and lots of them. It must also include trading rules that protect you when the market doesn’t do what the system signal said the market would do.

            Finally, it appears that the incredible profits that you claim to have achieved in the last couple of days have come from being leveraged 100-1, or more, rather than from a huge market move.I mean, the SPX has only declined about 40 points since your signal came in. While any profit is better than a loss, you won’t ever see a seasoned professional trader get so incredibly giddy about catching 40 points in the SPX. As an example, Tony nailed the bottom on 9/29, and the market moved up more than 200 points in the subsequent 6 weeks, yet you never heard Tony gloat.

            I wish you the best of luck with your magic indicator.

          • aahmichael says:

            Ummm…you do realize that the MCO crossed below the zero line at Friday’s close, thereby giving a sell signal as well….right? There is nothing magic about the MCO. It’s been around a very long time and it’s in the public domain. No one required a magic indicator to get a sell signal at Friday’s close.

          • RSI 14 on the 15 minute charts gave a really nice sell signal for the SPY at the close Friday. That’s a hidden divergence or what I call a springboard. They’re easily the most powerful signals I use. Accurate when used with MA’s. On weekly charts they’re killer.

          • Michael, I applaud you on the rational tone of your reply and wish you the best of luck as well. You did get a few things wrong which I’ll comment on briefly in case it might be helpful to you or other readers.

            I don’t even consider the MCO, the VIX, etc., in my indicator, as these are coincidental, not causal in nature.

            Where you go wrong in your stated perspective is that if you look back at prior cases of whatever you say the MCO did on Friday (I’ll take your word for it as it’s irrelevant to me), I’m sure you’ll see many times in the past when it DIDN’T work, thus further supporting the case that it’s coincidental/resultant in nature.

            I think a lot of people make the same mistake. Here’s the truth: it doesn’t just matter when a certain signal has worked in the past, what is as or in some senses more important is that it HASN’T FAILED. Otherwise, it isn’t truly causal in nature. I see posts here every day which indicate that most people haven’t gone this extra step.

            Also, if you think the MCO was what caused yesterday’s nice selloff, then use that for yourself. I will use my indicator, which is the most consistently accurate, predictive, and profitable than anything I’ve ever seen. It’s not “perfect”, or at least my interpretation of it isn’t perfect, but it’s the cloosest thing to perfect I’ve seen. If you find something better then post those Signals before-the-fact in real-time like I do and everyone can draw their own conclusions.

            Lastly, your statement on leverage is way off and would seem to reveal a lack of even basic knowledge of Options. I trade a different underlying instrument and don’t want to crowd that trade, so let’s just take an example that’s known to most trader. If someone simply bought SPXU Calls – 30, 31, 32 Strike Prices – on Friday afternoon when I gave a very emphatic, specific, immediate Sell Signal as posted in real-time on my blog at – made 100+% on their money with virtually ZERO leverage and very low risk, so I don’t agree at all with your premise and think the opposite is true. There’s nothing subjective about it.

            Based on the response I’ve been receiving, oi% is very positive/grateful, is s%% or so isskeptical, so to each his own. I won’t spend further time trying to help the skeptics; use whatever works best for you. I know I will be. Best of luck to us all!

          • Should read 95-98% positive/grateful” 2-5% negative/skeptical

          • lunker1 says:

            FRB cut the crap already. You get 3 posts a day here and if you had some class you wouldn’t be advertising every chance you got.

          • Lunk, quit your crying. Posts in response to others don’t count toward the limit as has been stated here many times in the past. Keep up man.

            Also, 95-98% of people’s response has been extremely positive, grateful, etc. I don’t care about the 2-5% like you, only the 95-98% I am helping, so get used to it.

            If it’s not for you, don’t visit my blog and just ignore my posts. Nobody will care.


          • tony caldaro says:

            I just looked at 15 emails and about half of them were yours.
            If you do not have a ‘new’ market opinion stop cluttering up the board.

          • hk1122 says:

            Hi Tom, Can you please explain the hidden neg divergence on SPY 15 min chart that you refer to. thnx

          • Will do Tony. Just replying to others but will of course honor your request and not overload your board. I was going to just tell people to post any questions or comments to me on my own blog but thought that might come across the wrong way but will do so going forward per your request. Thanks again for all you do Tony.

          • hk1122 –
            Hidden neg divergence is where prices are trending down, making lower highs, and your indicator, RSI or STO or MacD, makes a higher high. On a 15 min chart, compare the close 11-5 with the close 11-6. Price makes a lower high and RSI 14 makes a higher high. I call it a springboard and mostly use it on longer time frames.

            Look at a daily chart of Netflix. Compare prices mid-January and mid-March this year. Price makes a higher low while RSI 14 makes a lower low. Positive hidden divergence. Price also jumped over the 125 ema and came back to it as Sto 14-3 reached oversold (with a springboard). I either buy the stock or long term options (at least 6 months-never less). In this case I bought both and did well.

            Springboard divergences used correctly can provide powerful signals and excellent profits.

          • hk1122 says:

            Thanks Tom.Will try to get a better grasp and include in my analysis

      • argento1 says:

        That is awewome man, glad it saved you the normal pain of this trading game!I’m a wave rider so going to sit through this dip as I still see new highs ahead…but mid and smaller caps are underperforming and showing negative divergence against the SPX so a clear warning signal that the bear is coming next year, fit perfectly in with this being Primary V per Tony!


        • That sounds like a reasonable plan, Argento. My strong hunch is that my indicator will give its next Buy Signal just before the next up-move, will be interesting to see how it all unfolds!

    • CampFreddie says:

      Yes, very good call, almost zero draw down.

      • That’s right CF – almost zero drawdown/leverage and 100+% gains in ONE DAY. TWICE in the span of less than a WEEK. Any rational person who actually trades with real money will “get it” immediately and greatly increase their trading profits in my opinion.

  16. blackjak100 says:

    TC, does your gut say int a ended at 2068? It sure looked liked the movement from 2099 was 5 waves for a ‘c wave’.

  17. ABchart says:

    ES update: 2067 is the low of the intraday value.

    Scenario 1: 2067 > 2080/85 > 2056
    Scenario 2: 2067 > 2056 > 2080/85

    • AB ma strategie est d’acheter des puts a 208.5- 209 SPY je pense que ca serait une bonne opportunnité en allant vers lexpiration la semaine prochaine.

      • ABchart says:

        Ok merci Winningtech. Oui c’est une bonne stratégie. Pour ma part je pense qu’on fera le bas entre le 23 et le 25 novembre. Après quoi, les opérateurs vont commencer à regarder la carotte de la BCE le 3 décembre. On verra.

  18. Looking at Nov opex …..imo SPY will see $200.00 by 11/20….market makers will be gunning to take out those 99,000 contracts at $200 currently at $8.36…there are huge call levels above that will be destroyed along the way… is the option chain to see for yourself….

  19. patterntrading says:

    Dear All,

    If any one knows AFL coding need little help to put pop up alert in one AFL..’

    Thanks in advance.

  20. Ben Ferra says:

    Hello. I have been following you since 2005. As always your are one of the best.
    What do think about this count from swedish trader. Thanks

  21. 56rambler says:

    Thanks, Mr. Caldaro,

    An observations: despite the 20 pt drop in the SPX, it doesn’t feel like people are terribly worried. I’m looking at your post today, and you’ve only received 31 comments thus far – the compares to much, much higher numbers during the Aug/Sep volatility …

  22. torehund says:

    Being harassed and dictated by government, or other “know it better than you” has a limit. In the end you say you have had it, and revolutions occur. France and Europe haven’t had one for a long time, but I think time is running out. Is this the beginning of a European Spring ? Even if none of you think so, we all have to see the tragic comical in it, and hope it doesn’t escalate further.

  23. Fiona, a while back you posted pieces about consecutive monthly closes below 25 & 20-month MAs. Please do a follow-up in the context of current market and any other indicators for confirmation or nonconfirmation relative to historical patterns. Thx, MD

  24. ariez5 says:

    DXJ: Beautiful Big Down setup and wave pattern. Triggers with a trade below today’s lows.

  25. blackjak100 says:

    Tc, does major 4 require a downtrend confirmation? Any change to bull market top target since major 3 only made it to 2116?

    • tony caldaro says:

      downtrend confirmation? no
      it might be lowered

      • quantmaven says:

        What if this is just 2 of an extended major 3 and 3 of major 3 is a huge rally in 2016? I guess how deep this correct will be will tell… If we reach back 2000-2020 then I would agree for major 4 but anything shallow I doubt it.

  26. fishonhook says:

    Rather random collection of Info there tore

    • torehund says:

      Sorry: Point is, the TA may look identical, but it is the monthly trend (or longer range trend) that is determining if a pattern plays out or not. Take the doomed house, its just as well 2 waves up in EW terms, that is, its neutral until proven otherwise. As the monthly trend is positive for Shanghai and negative for the Euro I think the Euro is the doomed house and Shanghai is 2 waves up. Hope this explains something I think is meaningful, Tony feel free to correct add and subtract.

  27. torehund says:

    Comparing the 2 waves up from August 26 bottom, it looks a little like the three tops and doomed house of the Euro. All until recently, when Shanghai suddenly diverted upwards. TA might look the same, but then look at the monthly picture. The Euro is in a long term devastating downtrend. and the rise of the Chinese toward 5000 was great enough to turn the monthly positive. Long range trends are mostly your friend…And if the Remembi declines, even the housing market will be supported as commodities may even rise a bit in the local currency.

  28. Sandra Dons says:

    Another dramatic moment for my calls… Where’s the bottom of this down move? I hope at 2040….

  29. tomasso60 says:

    thanks Tony

  30. Just wanted to say, that I showed you all here the following: 1) the hourly chart of the S&P500 wedge count – to which one participant called it ‘bullish’, and was wrong for 10 S&P points; 2) this was followed by the ‘wedge in the wedge’ or the fractal of the fractal on the 5-min count S&P chart and the hourly futures count, correctly labeled as an ending diagonal, and 3) then showed the Leading Diagonal lower, on the S&P500 15 min cash chart, at the point labeled, calling it most likely an A wave. So, today, the follow up is shown with C = A.

    SPX - Fifteen Minute - Nov-09 1626 PM (15 min)

  31. Our count differs by degree, we are in Major 2 not Major 4… of Primary5

    • llerias7 says:

      Could you identify waves 1 and 2 of P4? Also wave 5 finish above the low of wave 3…

      • 5 truncated and given the massive wave 3 it made sense

        There were also Fibonacci relationships

        2271 is low end target for primary 5

        • jeffbalin says:

          You just said we are in a B from 666. Actually every 2 months you have a completely different count. And, each time you display a new count, you express extreme confidence that you are right and others are wrong. Interesting ideas, but wild.

    • aahmichael says:

      I didn’t have time to post this weekend, so I’ll post my update now for where I think the market is. As you know, I have never believed that the October rally was impulsive. All you have to do is look at the NYA, and what you’ll see is overlap city. So, here is my count as it stands now:
      From the low on 9/29, I count it as follows:
      a-b-c = 1917-1894-1993
      x= 1991
      a-b-c = 2034-2017-2080
      x= 2059
      a-b-c = 2090-2079-2116 ( the final c wave actually ended on the open of 11/4 at 2114.59. It was a 5th wave failure.)
      From that point, the bearish count is a wave 1 down to 2103.54, and then a running wave 2 that ended at Friday’s close at 2099. Today would be the start of a wave 3.
      The bullish count would call Friday’s close at 2099 a B wave, and wave C started today.
      I remain short at 2104.50. The position that I initiated on 11/3.

  32. Hi Tony

    Congrats once again, you’re on a roll!

    In a recent weekend update, you suggested and I am paraphrasing, that this rally had to print a new all time high or you need to reassess. QUESTION….With the new update labeling of major wave 4 down and 5 up, the SPX may not print a new all time high. If it doesn’t, would these waves be labeled 1 degree lower i.e.intermediate waves instead of major waves.

  33. tony caldaro says:

    the Bots seem to like them HD

  34. H D says:

    Nice pivots Tony!

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