SHORT TERM: choppy day after NFP, DOW +47
Overnight the Asian markets were mixed again. Europe opened lower but gained 0.3%. US index futures were quite volatile after the Payrolls report was released. At 8:30 monthly Payrolls were reported higher: 271K v 142K, and the Unemployment rate dropped to 5.0%. The market opened four points below yesterday’s SPX 2100 close, bounced up to 2102 in the opening minutes, then dropped to 2084 by 10am. Then the market rallied to SPX 2097 by 10:30, pulled back to 2087 by 12:30, then rallied to 2099 by 2pm. After a pullback to SPX 2091 by 2:30, the market rallied to close at 2099.
For the day the SPX/DOW were mixed, and the NDX/NAZ were +0.25%. Bonds lost 24 ticks, Crude dropped 65 cents, Gold fell $15, and the USD was higher. Medium term support remains at the 2085 and 2070 pivots, with resistance at the 2131 and 2198 pivots. Today the WLEI was reported lower: 46.5% v 47.3%, while the GDPn was reported higher: +2.3% v +1.9%.
The market opened slightly lower today, turned positive, and then dropped to a new low for the pullback at SPX 2084. At that low the market displayed three waves down from Tuesday’s SPX 2116 high: 2090-2104-2084. This would be sufficient for the Int. wave iv pullback, which was expected to hit the 2085 pivot range, or worse case 2074-2085 range. After that the market rallied into the close. As long as the SPX 2084 level holds Int. wave v should be underway to higher highs. If it doesn’t, then Major wave 4 is likely underway. Key level SPX 2084. Best to your weekend!
MEDIUM TERM: uptrend
LONG TERM: bull market