Friday update

SHORT TERM: choppy day after NFP, DOW +47

Overnight the Asian markets were mixed again. Europe opened lower but gained 0.3%. US index futures were quite volatile after the Payrolls report was released. At 8:30 monthly Payrolls were reported higher: 271K v 142K, and the Unemployment rate dropped to 5.0%. The market opened four points below yesterday’s SPX 2100 close, bounced up to 2102 in the opening minutes, then dropped to 2084 by 10am. Then the market rallied to SPX 2097 by 10:30, pulled back to 2087 by 12:30, then rallied to 2099 by 2pm. After a pullback to SPX 2091 by 2:30, the market rallied to close at 2099.

For the day the SPX/DOW were mixed, and the NDX/NAZ were +0.25%. Bonds lost 24 ticks, Crude dropped 65 cents, Gold fell $15, and the USD was higher. Medium term support remains at the 2085 and 2070 pivots, with resistance at the 2131 and 2198 pivots. Today the WLEI was reported lower: 46.5% v 47.3%, while the GDPn was reported higher: +2.3% v +1.9%.

The market opened slightly lower today, turned positive, and then dropped to a new low for the pullback at SPX 2084. At that low the market displayed three waves down from Tuesday’s SPX 2116 high: 2090-2104-2084. This would be sufficient for the Int. wave iv pullback, which was expected to hit the 2085 pivot range, or worse case 2074-2085 range. After that the market rallied into the close. As long as the SPX 2084 level holds Int. wave v should be underway to higher highs. If it doesn’t, then Major wave 4 is likely underway. Key level SPX 2084. Best to your weekend!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend

LONG TERM: bull market


About tony caldaro

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54 Responses to Friday update

  1. quantmaven says:

    I know this sounds weird but if you look at the correction DXY did between mid March to mid October, it looks very similar to what the S&P 500 did over the last couple days. What do you guys think? This means the low would indeed have been made at 2084 if the pattern is the same.

  2. kevinm76 says:

    Gold is currently tracking 5 in an Ending Diagonal. It should finish by year end, probably around $1020-$1060ish Right in time for buy the news on the rate increase.

    The Ending Diagonal is so easy to see since 3 bottomed in July. I’m surprised the EW people haven’t mentioned it here…odd.This latest 4 up into October was obviously a head fake. Anyway….this pattern usually reverses fairly quickly once 5 is over with. In this case at least a lower low is needed or the lower connecting trendline. I calculate that by the end of the year it will be around 1040 to 1050ish. First though, we need a b wave off of this oversold condition. This pattern is probably the best risk reward pattern known. The assumed target should be where 1 started, at 1350-1400 by mid to late 2016. The first thrust though could easily make it to 1300 by March.

    IMHO you won’t see sub $1000 until the C wave, years from now. Bears…be warned.


  3. alexh110 says:

    Tony: if Major 4, do you expect the 2019 pivot to be hit; or perhaps even lower to form an EDT for Primary V?
    I don’t like the look of the daily MACD histogram, which seems to be flirting with going negative. So I’m leaning slightly towards Major 4.

  4. mjtplayer says:

    Thanks Tony!

    Quite possible int iv ended at SPX 2,083 today, though we could still have 1 more poke down to SPX 2,075 – 2,080.

    As of now, counting this as minute i,ii and currently in minute iii of minor 1 of int v

    • I agree, there is also a potential bullish Gartley pattern working that requires that poke down to 2075 for the ‘buy’.
      On your chart blue 4=X, purple 3=A, purple 4?=B and Friday’s close is C, ideally 2075 would be the potential reversal zone or D.

  5. Any targets on the downside for GOLD, GDX..
    It seems like GDX wants to go to 11.5 or lower in hurry.

  6. Roxie97 says:

    A lot of people getting quite bullish – Do you really believe things are that good? I volunteer at food bank – we are having record need for food to feed people in deep trouble. Biggest number was last month

    Something isn’t right !!

    • kevinm76 says:

      Where do you Volunteer? I mean seriously, some places have never been good. I’ll say this, the upper middle class and upper class have never been better. Thats a fact

      • Roxie97 says:

        South Florida Ft Lauderdale – We communicate with others thruout the country and the same thing is happening. More people on welfare then ever before and record number of people in need of food. Same thing why 61% of Americans say our country in on the wrong path. I suspect we will see something happen and it wont be good

        • kevinm76 says:

          O I agree Roxie 100%. However it’s only the lower class and some middle class. It’s a different story for the others I mentioned. Furthermore Florida is usually an odd place for odd people. I’m not saying all. My visits there have taught me much about the disconnect that state has compared to the rest of the country. I honestly thought this last collapse(2007-2009) would curtail the excess of this country. Look around the better zip codes in this country and you will see the excess is back and in full force. This time it’s the people that didn’t get affected by 2008 this time. They are living it up like it’s 1999 lol. Eventually that will change but for now it’s en vouge…Remember those people you are helping have nothing to lose, as opposed to those upper middle class that are helping this economy sputter along.

          Sadly though the lower class or those less fortunate without certain connections to get ahead have always suffered and that will never change until mankind changes. You’re doing a great job down there.

          BTW off topic somewhat…… I have seen so many ads for flipping homes again for FLorida. Does anybody notice this outrage? It’s as if nobody learned anything from the last crisis.

        • CampFreddie says:

          Good work Rosie, my sister does the same work here in the UK. She has made a few interesting observations (without judgement), one of which is that most of the food bank users seem have the latest must have smartphones, clothing etc.

  7. Lee X says:

    Thanks Tony

  8. blackjak100 says:

    Nobody mentioned the BIG UP set up?

  9. ctfp999 says:

    Hi Tony,

    I see that we are currently in minute b wave for $TNX. What would be a reasonable top exptectation for this b wave. TIA.

  10. kevinm76 says:

    SADLY…….Before this Bullmarket/eventual Bubble market completes, Primary V will have subdivided to infinity and everybody here will be in disbelief. Dow to at 35,000 by 2017.

    Elliot wave is of no use now. It’s all bubble now……lots of a, b’s and lots of III,IV etc coming folks. It s going to be a headache. All the bears will eventually be right…..and it will be correct and fair.

    This beast won’t stop until it turns into a massive bubble

    • blackjak100 says:

      Funny you say that on a site where the host has called it pretty well using OEW. And it requires no fee. How can it be of no use?

      • Roxie97 says:

        Blackjak I’m with you!!

      • kevinm76 says:

        Look I’m not slamming Tony or OEW at all. Tony has been impressive here. However he’s not perfect and he has been calling for a Top in the overall market since I believe 2013ish. It’s pushed back often. Now considering it’s very difficult to call top’s I 100% understand. I’m just saying this last phase up will be the dumb money up up and away ala 1999-2000 type action. The last phase before the real collapse, if you will.

        Money has to go somewhere and it’s going into stocks and real estate. Some things never change. Where will money go at this present moment considering emerging markets are toxic? Answer that and you will understand where we are at.

        • tony caldaro says:

          have not called a bull market top yet

          • kevinm76 says:

            Tony your November 23rd 2013 weekend update says top in early 2014 “we are still expecting a bull market top by late-winter to early-spring 2014” Your quote not mine.

            Look it’s impossible to call tops…..They are very hard to do. I’m just saying this last wave up…now….will subdivide. I’m sure you’re thinking about this as well but you won’t say anything until it happens. I understand. Just something to think about.


        • blackjak100 says:

          cotreat he’s not perfect. Im just saying there’s value on this site from TC and several posters all with no annual or monthly fee. You were the one that said EW is of no use. There’s still some good CMT’s out there predicting P4 to move lower before moving to 2500+. You don’t need to be a CMT to see that’s ludicrous in a rising rate environment.

        • Walter Crane says:

          You had best stop while you are slightly ahead. Tony is the Beast, and he doesn’t charge anything. It doesn’t get any better than that.

        • lunker1 says:

          “Unless the market enters the bubble stage, we are still expecting a bull market top by late-winter to early-spring 2014.”

      • chrisk44342 says:

        Well said BJ. Tony deserves lots of credit for his approach

    • tommyboys says:

      Don’t know about EW, but I agree on a massive euphoria stage approaching. While not gonna call Dow 35k but before its over I WILL call Dow 25-27k+ by 2017. Benn very hesitant to post it on this site – mostly bears here.

      • tony caldaro says:

        think you’re the third or fourth one to mention a euphoria stage is yet to come
        perma bears and now super bulls?

        • tommyboys says:

          While it appears to bears on this site I’m a permabull I am not. I have been bullish for 5 1/2 years however and have had a big blowoff target for sometime. Was called a doomer and permabear for a decade prior however from ’00-’10. Was considered a “permabull” in the late 90s prior to that but of course wasn’t – just like now. Will turn bearish when I believe bull is over – don’t right here. Tony you have directed accurately and effectively for many years – congrats to your system and OEW.

          Lee please excuse the typos. El Nino appears to have vacated SE Michigan as well. Hoping this record el nino brings a mild winter – time will tell & cheers.

          • tommyboys says:

            Ironic story. Was soooo bearish in ’01-’04 sold some real estate and put proceeds – hard cash – into a safe deposit box. Bought some physical gold in ’04 and added it to the box. Dumped the gold in 2012 then wanted to buy RE again in ’13. I couldn’t get a mortgage even by depositing the cash into a bank as collateral – there was supposedly no trail. They wouldn’t consider my records from a decade earlier because Chase’s records didn’t go back that far. That decade was a blink in hindsight. You’d think a decade of records is nothing. Bottom line is cash is going away and being cautious cost me. They can’t control cash.

      • Lee X says:

        Call duly noted. Who’s Benn ?

      • chrisk44342 says:

        Actually it’s been mostly bullish. Only now, as we end a cycle are most turning bearish as they should. There have been a few perma bears who were consistently wrong and have stopped posting here. Of all the EW technicians, I would say Tony has probably been one of the most bullish if anything.

    • Thanks, Tony.
      On the contrary, I’m a believer. Just because it’s primary wave-5 doesn’t mean minute wave-5 (n5) of minor wave-3 (m3) of intermediate wave-3 of major wave-3 (M3) isn’t involved in a powerful uptrend. We got an almost perfect 61.8% retrace of minute wave-3 and, very importantly, no overlap of minute wave-1 at 2079.74. More support for this count is the retrace of minute wave-4 back to near the bottom of minuet wave-4 of minute wave-3. We could be witnessing the Mother of all ($SPX) blow-off tops with lots of waves and lots of trading fun and excitement!

  11. Tony Correction
    I think you meant 2116 Tuesday High

  12. Thanks Tony . Today we had a bullish daily candle reversal wich is positive,it indicate that a turnaround could come very soon . We are also holding 8 EMA and fully embedded stochastics still in place. We need a confirmation early next week .Monday will be an important day . Have a great week end Tony:))

  13. It seem to me that this market reacted quite calmly to the NFP report which , of course, gives strength to the FED to raise rates. At least so far. I would consider that Bullish.

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