SHORT TERM: pullback continues, DOW -4
Last night FED vice chair Fischer gave a speech: http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/fischer20151104a.htm. Overnight the Asian markets finished mixed. Europe opened higher but finished mixed as well. At 8:30 weekly Jobless claims were reported higher: 276K v 260K. The market opened one point above yesterday’s SPX 2102 close. By 10am the SPX hit 2109 and then started to pullback. The pullback was quick, and just before 11am the SPX hit 2090. After that the market rebounded to SPX 2104 by 1pm. At 1:30 a speech from FED governor Tarullo was released: http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/tarullo20151105a.htm. After a pullback to SPX 2096 by 2:30 the market bounced to close at 2100.
For the day the SPX/DOW were -0.05%, and the NDX/NAZ were -0.30%. Bonds lost 2 ticks, Crude dropped $1.00, Gold slid $4, and the USD was higher. Medium term support remains at the 2085 and 2070 pivots, with resistance at the 2131 and 2198 pivots. Today the MMIS was reported higher: 54.7% v 53.6%. Tomorrow: monthly Payrolls (est. +174K) at 8:30, Consumer credit at 3pm, and a speech from FED governor Brainard after the close.
The market opened higher today, then pulled back to SPX 2090 triggering a potential Intermediate wave iv pullback. As noted yesterday, the key level was SPX 2094 and support for Int. iv was expected to be in the 2085 pivot range. After reviewing the charts we also noticed, due to the choppiness of the recent rally from the Minor 4 low at SPX 2052, that Major wave 3 could also be counted at the recent SPX 2116 high. Looks like we will need to observe some market activity to determine which wave degree pullback is underway. During this uptrend the Int. wave pullbacks have been between 31 and 42 points. This suggests an Int. iv pullback should find support at the 2085 pivot range, or the plus side of the 2070 pivot. Anything more than that and we are probably looking at a Major wave 4 pullback. A Major wave 4 low would be identified by an oversold daily RSI. Currently the daily RSI looks like it has a negative divergence at the recent high. Short term support is the 2085 and 2070 pivots, with resistance at SPX 2120 and the 2131 pivot. Short term momentum hit oversold at today’s low, then bounced to neutral. Best to your payrolls trading!
MEDIUM TERM: uptrend
LONG TERM: bull market