Tuesday update

SHORT TERM: rally continues, DOW +89

Overnight the Asian markets gained 0.5%. Europe opened lower but gained 0.2%. US index futures were lower overnight and the market opened four points below yesterday’s SPX 2104 close. After a dip to SPX 2098 the market started to rally. At 10am Factory orders were reported lower: -1.0% v -1.7%, but Auto sales were reported higher. The rally continued into the afternoon with the SPX hit 2116 around 2:30. Then the market pulled back to SPX 2108 near the close, and bounced to 2110 at the close.

For the day the SPX/DOW were +0.40%, and the NDX/NAZ were +0.35%. Bonds lost 7 ticks, Crude rallied $1.50, Gold dropped $16, and the USD was higher. Medium term support remains at the 2085 and 2070 pivots, with resistance at the 2131 and 2198 pivots. Tomorrow: the ADP at 8:15, Trade deficit at 8:30, ISM services and congressional testimony from FED chair Yellen at 10am, then a speech from FED vice chair Fischer at 7:30pm.

The market opened lower today, dipped to SPX 2098, then started to rally to a higher uptrend high. With today’s price extension of Minor wave 5, and SPX 2093 not neared, the rally from SPX 2059 looks a lot more impulsive: 2085-2063-2094-2079-2116. This pattern suggests there are several small waves still needed to complete Minor 5. Market might start to get choppy over the next several days. SPX 2094 now becomes the downside limit to keep the Minor 5 rally underway. Short term support is at the 2085 and 2070 pivots, with resistance at SPX 2120 and the 2131 pivot. Short term momentum again hit quite overbought during today’s rally. Best to your “testimony” trading!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend

LONG TERM: bull market

CHARTS:  http://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

About tony caldaro

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195 Responses to Tuesday update

  1. GYN LAB says:

    5min chart displaying pretty accurate IHS with 2106 neckline.. If this holds at least a retest of 2116 and possibly more in the coming hours/days

  2. stephenk1980 says:

    Warning signs flashing. Think FRB might be on to something as it looks like the other day could have been a false break out of the resistances I was monitoring. Still staying out of indices and buying some Yen instead as the SL is more clear to me.

    • stephenk1980 says:

      Just to add that this hasn’t been proven yet on my charts. Still just a possibility.

      • I’m front running the signal by a couple days via SPXU (safe bet considering the move up from 1870s?). Should get a SPX sell confirmation by the close tomorrow. Sets up for a wild payrolls day – not on data (likely neutral) but rather interpretations of fed rate forecasters. By Friday’s close, we’ll see 2,070 or 2,120 at some point…maybe both.

  3. well in my view,after analysing SPY chart: take out 210.70 and holding it and we are going to retest or exceed yesterday high ,very important next hour!

  4. H D says:

    Last year Nov was about (55) points, so 2080-2035 if we r same program this Nov.? Already 36 points so possible just choppy rally rest of month to finish the little waves DT area before more meaningful hit. Last Dec was about -105 points

    • mjtplayer says:

      Pullback in mid Nov for int iv, then int v to finish M3 around Turkey Day or early Dec. M4 down into mid-Dec on Fed rate hike fears? Then M5 into 2016 to end the bull?

      Would work well with the ’99 – ’00 top analog, which topped in July ’99, down into Oct (3 months), then up into Jan (3 months), down in Feb, up into March for the final high – 8 months total from previous high to final high.

      Today, high in May, down into Aug (3 months), up into Nov (3 months), down into Dec, up into Jan to end the bull – 8 months total from previous high to final high?

      • H D says:

        IDK, those are bigger patterns than I typically look at. * should read 2080-2135

        Admittedly I was thinking down before up and they went up before down so I’m just looking for a new opportunity. An SPX -10 day is nice to see, BOTs getting some.

  5. Dex T says:

    I doubt anyone is surprised but it’s nice to have confirmation.

    Former N.Y. Fed employee to plead guilty over Goldman leaks

    “An ex-employee of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York suspected of leaking confidential information to a former colleague working at Goldman Sachs Group Inc is expected to plead guilty on Wednesday, according to a court official.

    The case highlighted the so-called revolving door on Wall Street, in which regulators regularly go to work for the banks they once oversaw, and fueled critics who say the Federal Reserve has too cozy a relationship with many banks it oversees.”

    http://finance.yahoo.com/news/former-n-y-fed-employee-161336385.html

    • ABchart says:

      An ex-employee in conflict with the FED? otherwise she would not be worried IMO.
      How not to believe that Yellen itself does not communicate the Fed policy to major banks before communicating to the rest of the world?

      • Dex T says:

        Yeah they always go after the small fish!

        Agreed especially since those banks received funding and the markets move prior to “official” announcements.

        There is some communication there. How exactly is not certain but it’s there!

  6. johnnymagicmoney says:

    I entered shorts at 2110 on SPY and I am up but I have to admit I wouldnt be suprised if i regret it soon (I dont like goingin and out to eternity – try to capture weekly or monthly trends). Reason I say this is hth market is behaving with the same ole BTFD mentality. You can see it in the downmoves. So measured, so controlled, definitely not impulsive whatsoever. God forbid if the market goes down 1/2% – Its the buying opportunity of a lifetime!!!!!!! All long minded people here are complete retards. Those discussing AMZN before – dont even get me started. 17 cents a share last quarter and it trades at 643 a share??? LOL If you are going to say you love Amazon please at the very least show us some intelligence and say you are buying it because other people are buying it. The second anyone starts making a fundamental case for owning it they lose all credibility in my mind. Long story short? Market just isnt ready to sell off yet. man when this bull completes I will be dancing in the streets laughing HARD at the retards.

    • So u wanna be a dancer? Dance at the bulls on the streets?

      Sounds like u need to go to Spain for that Bull festival!!

      I just want to make money…don’t care bull or bear!! Now BTD AMZN to the moon!

      Enjoy these Jesse Livermore rules !!!! #4, #10, #16 should explain to u why AMZN is a buy buy buy!!!

      1.Nothing new ever occurs in the business of speculating or investing in securities and commodities.
      2 Money cannot consistently be made trading every day or every week during the year.
      3. Don’t trust your own opinion and back your judgment until the action of the market itself confirms your opinion.
      4. Markets are never wrong – opinions often are.
      5. The real money made in speculating has been in commitments showing in profit right from the start.
      6. At long as a stock is acting right, and the market is right, do not be in a hurry to take profits.
      7.One should never permit speculative ventures to run into investments.
      8.The money lost by speculation alone is small compared with the gigantic sums lost by so-called investors who have let their investments ride.
      9.Never buy a stock because it has had a big decline from its previous high.
      10.Never sell a stock because it seems high-priced.
      11. I become a buyer as soon as a stock makes a new high on its movement after having had a normal reaction.
      12. Never average losses.
      13. The human side of every person is the greatest enemy of the average investor or speculator.
      14. Wishful thinking must be banished.
      15. Big movements take time to develop.
      16. It is not good to be too curious about all the reasons behind price movements.
      17. It is much easier to watch a few than many.
      18. If you cannot make money out of the leading active issues, you are not going to make money out of the stock market as a whole.
      19. The leaders of today may not be the leaders of two years from now.
      20. Do not become completely bearish or bullish on the whole market because one stock in some particular group has plainly reversed its course from the general trend.
      21. Few people ever make money on tips. Beware of inside information. If there was easy money lying around, no one would be forcing it into your pocket.

      • Dex T says:

        Livermore was primarily a speculator-not an investor- trading AMZN on a daily or swing basis is fine and price is of no importance.

        However, the large funds who invest in it based on “financials” hold the stock for months or even years.

        What can they possibly see that would make them buy anywhere near these levels -also taking into account that the company itself has no game plan on making a profit.

        It’s just an online store that sells items you can buy anywhere- and it’s been around for a while now.

      • 22. Market is 100% rigged
        23. Worthless stocks with little to no value are the best money makers.
        24. Fundamentals are worthless in picking big gainer stocks.
        25. Good profit producing companies rarely go up much as they are hard to pump.
        26. All companies that soar up to crazy highs have huge promoters behind them that bought at the lows and pumped it without caring one bit about what the company does.
        27. All high flyer companies will eventually crash and burn when the promoters got all they can get out of it.
        28. The media is the propaganda machine the promoters use to get the sheep to buy the worthless company.
        29. You are the sheep and you are supposed to lose.
        30. Highly pumped companies “usually” do little of any value to the world.
        31. Most pumped companies have extremely outdated technologies in them.
        32. If a company does have an incredible technology in it they usually won’t pump it as it’s not profitable and it will put other garbage companies out of business (think free energy stuff).
        33. The owners of the company are most likely a member of “The Brotherhood of Gangsters”.. (think Skull and Bones, 33rd Mason’s, etc…), and will have coded symbols in their logo showing who their master is.

    • 22. Market is 100% rigged
      23. Worthless stocks with little to no value are the best money makers.
      24. Fundamentals are worthless in picking big gainer stocks.
      25. Good profit producing companies rarely go up much as they are hard to pump.
      26. All companies that soar up to crazy highs have huge promoters behind them that bought at the lows and pumped it without caring one bit about what the company does.
      27. All high flyer companies will eventually crash and burn when the promoters got all they can get out of it.
      28. The media is the propaganda machine the promoters use to get the sheep to buy the worthless company.
      29. You are the sheep and you are supposed to lose.
      30. Highly pumped companies “usually” do little of any value to the world.
      31. Most pumped companies have extremely outdated technologies in them.
      32. If a company does have an incredible technology in it they usually won’t pump it as it’s not profitable and it will put other garbage companies out of business (think free energy stuff).
      33. The owners of the company are most likely a member of “The Brotherhood of Gangsters”.. (think Skull and Bones, 33rd Mason’s, etc…), and will have coded symbols in their logo showing who their master is.

      • johnnymagicmoney says:

        I didnt say I was shorting AMZN. One day it will be a mother short. All I am saying is its an overvalued piece of crap. If you wanna be a retard and buy it be my guest but I would never ever buy it. I will however short it one day but today is not the day

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