Friday update

SHORT TERM: another choppy day, DOW -92

Overnight the Asian markets lost 0.2%. Europe opened higher and gained 0.1%. US index futures were higher overnight. At 8:30 Personal income (+0.1% v +0.3%) / spending (+0.1% v +0.4%) were reported higher, and the PCE was reported higher: +0.1% v +0.1%. The market opened three points above yesterday’s SPX 2089 close and immediately started to pullback. At 9:45 the Chicago PMI was reported higher: 56.2 v 48.7, and at 10am Consumer sentiment was reported lower: 90.0 v 92.1. At 10:30 the SPX hit 2084 and then tried to rally. The rally continued into the afternoon when the SPX hit 2094. Then around 2pm the market started to pullback again. Heading into the close the SPX hit 2079 and closed there.

For the day the SPX/DOW were -0.50%, and the NDX/NAZ were -0.45%. Bonds gained 4 ticks, Crude rose 35 cents, Gold slid $5, and the USD was lower. Medium term support drops to the 2070 and 2019 pivots, with resistance at the 2085 and 2131 pivots. Today the WLEI was reported lower: 47.2% v 47.3%, and the GDPn was reported higher: 1.1% v 0.9%.

The market opened at SPX 2092 today, pulled back to 2084, then hit a new uptrend high at 2094. The market then declined to SPX 2079, after it was reported the FED was looking to add additional reserve requirements on the major banks. With the late afternoon pullback Minor wave 5 is starting to look a bit sloppy. We now have four overlapping waves: 2085-2063-2094-2079. Several possibilities at this point for Minor 5. Short term support is at the 2070 pivot and SPX 2059, with resistance at the 2085 pivot and SPX 2100. Short term momentum dropped to oversold after the negative divergence and ended there. Best to your weekend!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend

LONG TERM: bull market


About tony caldaro

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27 Responses to Friday update

  1. torehund says:

    thAs much as I agree with Tonys analysis of commodities being in a decade long ++ bear market, don’t be too nearsighted. Imagine a currency plunging and the pricing of commodities in USD flatlining or just dipping slightly.
    Well thats the future of Europe, stagflation (worst seen ever), hunger and riots.
    The next wave of migration will be from Europe towards the US, and if Trump doesn’t need a wall, then Clinton already has a moat 🙂
    Many countries will blame the Dollar, blame America, and scream for Communism.
    Well thats not reasonable, its much more simple, its the ratio of productivity vs non producing consumers that determines the value of a currency. GDP may look nice, but if you have to see 10 different doctors to get a firm diagnosis, (and the 11th ends you :)), then your purchasing power has already been deflated..Thats hyperinflation or deflation, if you like…the former only happens when the country goes down the drain…
    Good weekend to Tony and the gang.


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