Tuesday update

SHORT TERM: gap down opening, DOW -42

Overnight the Asian markets lost 0.4%. Europe opened lower and lost 0.9%. US index futures were lower overnight. At 8:30 Durable goods were reported lower: -1.2% v -2.3%, and at 9am Case-Shiller was reported higher: 5.1% v 5.0%. The market gapped down at the open to SPX 2064, dipped to 2062, then rallied to 2068 by 10am. The market had closed at SPX 2071 yesterday. At 10am Consumer confidence was reported lower: 97.6 v 103.0. The market then pulled back to SPX 2061 by 10:30, rallied to 2070 by 11am, and then declined to 2059 by 1pm. After that the market started to work its way higher. Heading into the close the SPX hit 2066 and closed there.

For the day the SPX/DOW were -0.25%, and the NDX/NAZ were mixed. Bonds gained 10 ticks, Crude lost 75 cents, Gold rose $2, and the USD was higher. Medium term support drops to the 2019 and 1973 pivots, with resistance at the 2070 and 2085 pivots. Tomorrow: the FED concludes its two day FOMC meeting.

The market gapped down at the open today, opening below yesterday’s low. After bouncing around a bit it rallied back to within one point of yesterday’s SPX 2071 close, and then made a lower low at 2059. On the lower low we updated the hourly chart to display a Minor wave 3 completed at SPX 2080. The pullback to SPX 2059, and accompanying short term oversold condition, appears sufficient for a Minor wave 4 low. If not, we may see a positive divergence develop if the market makes a slightly lower low. Either way, a rising Minor wave 5 should be next. Short term support slips to SPX 2042 and the 2019 pivot, with resistance at the 2070 and 2085 pivots. Short term momentum hit oversold to day and then bounced to neutral. Best to your FOMC trading tomorrow!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend

LONG TERM: bull market

CHARTS: http://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

About tony caldaro

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222 Responses to Tuesday update

  1. I’m thinking a gap up tomorrow.

  2. phil1247 says:

    TAEGET HIT took profits

  3. jeffbalin says:

    With that sharp drop today and divergences, etc int 3 could have ended with a small minor 5, but just now breaking today’s previous high I believe means minor 5 is extending, nice!

  4. phil1247 says:

    target is 4 point away …..WOW1111

    • rc1269 says:

      hey Phil – see my Q below for you?

      • phil1247 says:

        look at 4 min time ……embedded means both lines over 80 …see its going sideways over 80..its a buy until one line crosses below 80 …take partial profits at upper boll band

        • rc1269 says:

          thanks. yes we are using the same definition then. according to Ira it is 3 days with both stochs above 80. in Feb that triggered at about the 2/17 close. which means you got 21 points out of it before an 80 point decline. if you sold when it crossed back below 80, that happened on 3/9, which would have netted you -25 points from your trade open on 2/17.

          November was a little better. the criteria was met on about the close of 11/4, which provided you 67 points to the top on 12/5. followed immediately by 106 point drop. if you sold when it crossed back below 80, that happened on 10/10 and would have wiped out about 55 of your 67 points. netting you a total of +12 spx points, per the system.

          thanks for the clarification

  5. rc1269 says:

    HD – seems like 20 pts is the new 10 pts!

  6. This afternoon looks like a deep retrace of minute i similar to the deep retrace of Major 1.

  7. gtoptions says:

    Tony Int iii = .618 Int i? Seems a bit odd.😉

  8. torehund says:

    Hair has dried on miss Rut. Beware of the USD, monster strength coming.

  9. blackjak100 says:

    Did all the longs panic and bears get excited? The VIX didn’t down almost 4% still. GL & Cheers!

  10. tomasso60 says:

    A = C @ 108.73
    watch close on Gold and Silver, as could be quite the reversal

  11. mjtplayer says:

    Banks ripping higher on the prospects for higher rates, check out KRE.

    On the flip side, REIT’s (IYR) and utilities (XLU) are getting slammed.

  12. blackjak100 says:

    clear 3 wave move from 2085…does not mean it will be breached. Just mean a large retrace is very likely at the minimum

  13. The drama, Market sells off on Hawkish fed, Yea right, Worse then an NBA flop. Close over 2085 today, funny stuff

  14. uncle10 says:

    Happy Fed day. All this movement and they say nothing different. Too funny. If SPX above 2100 at next Fed MAYBE get a rate hike, otherwise still data dependent…..😉 gl all.

  15. rc1269 says:

    well now that is awkward

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