Thursday update

SHORT TERM: gap up and go, DOW +321

Overnight the Asian markets lost 0.4%. Europe opened lower but gained 1.7%. US index futures were higher overnight. At 8:30 weekly Jobless claims were reported higher: 259K v 255K, then at 9am the FHFA was reported higher: +0.3% v +0.6%. The market gapped up at the open to SPX 2033 and continued to rally. The market had closed at SPX 2019 yesterday. At 10am Existing home sales were reported higher: 5.55M v 5.31M, and Leading indicators were reported lower: -0.2% v +0.1%. The market continued to rally until hitting SPX 2055 at 12:30. Then it started to pullback. The pullback lasted until 2:30 when the SPX hit 2042. Then the market rallied into the close to end the day at 2053.

For the day the SPX/DOW gained 1.75%, and the NDX/NAZ gained 1.85%. Bonds gained 3 ticks, Crude rose 25 cents, Gold added $1, and the USD was higher. Medium term support remains at the 2019 and 1970 pivots, with resistance at the 2070 and 2085 pivots. Tomorrow: no economic reports.

The market gapped up at the open today to SPX 2033, and by 10am the market was already at new uptrend highs. Heading into the afternoon the SPX hit 2055, then pulled back to 2042 by 2:30. After that it drifted higher into the close. When the market made a new uptrend high we placed the Minor wave 2 label at yesterday’s SPX 2017 low. Minor wave 3 appears to be underway and is already subdividing. Expecting the two overhead pivots to be challenged next. Short term support is now at SPX 2040 and the 2019 pivot, with resistance at the 2070 and 2085 pivots. Short term momentum hit overbought today, after yesterday’s oversold, and ended there. Best to your Friday trading!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend

LONG TERM: bull market


About tony caldaro

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289 Responses to Thursday update

  1. simpleiam says:

    DJI lost quite a few points, but the others held up.

  2. aahmichael says:

    Even though there is an old adage, “never on Friday,” I just got short at 2076.

  3. blackjak100 says:

    TC, minor 3 over?

  4. llerias7 says:

    Tony, minute iii of Int.III is in?

  5. lcd00 says:

    I’m wondering if anyone here can help me fathom why gold/ miners are faring so well today…dollar has broken out, etc. Suddenly gold movement has decoupled from the dollar? Is there now a renewed likelihood of rate increase this year, thus the gold reaction? Yes, I’m short miners.

  6. blackjak100 says:

    NYAD +550ish – exactly P5 type breadth for a 25+ pt day

  7. NEWBIE says:

    looks like everyone is bullish again, look out below

  8. fishonhook says:

    FYI Dex and others. The notion of political correctness is a right wing construct.

    it used to be called manners. You don’t bad mouth people JUST because they are different. Gay or hispanic or black or women

    And old Trump says the Mexicans send their crooks and rapists here.

    TRUMP is a German name. Are all GErmans nazis or rapists? they sure raped a lot of women in WW2 before killing them. Of course they aren’t but shit-head Von Trump think he has the right to label others.

    being politically ‘incorrect’ = being a A-hole.

    • Lee X says:

      It must be exhausting being so “outraged “all the time

      • fishonhook says:

        Indeed. Trump has been fined and sued and yet thinks others are crooks. people are drawn to him because he isn’t a professional politician like Clinton or Jeb Bush. However that doesn’t make him anything worth anything!

        • kevinm76 says:

          Anything is better than a politician….come on now…you know this right?

        • Dex T says:

          You’re wrong there fishonhook. There are other traits that make him appealing:

          1) Trump is straight forward and a no-nonsense type. A lot of people like this manner and find it refreshing instead of the pussyfooting exhibited by the other politicians.

          2) Trump’s platform appeals to Americans and he focuses on them and NOT everyone else
          Someone Like Jeb Bush fails to understand this and focuses on just about every other country in the world. Americans want someone to consider America first!

          3) Trump has a lot of business experience. It’s true that he was born wealthy and had his share of failures. BUT this is true of most businessmen and he has also had his share of great successes. He has ideas on how to improve the economy and a lot energy and a track record of getting things done. I don’t know if they will work but they are ideas and most of the others are completely lacking.

          You know they aren’t going to anything except shake hands and give empty speeches.

          4) Trump has brought up and continues to stick to the idea of illegal immigration enforcement. This is huge- especially to voters out in Texas and the Western U.S. who have to deal with it and they want someone to take them seriously for change. They are tired of the excuses and will no vote for anyone who considers amnesty.

          5) Trump already is very wealthy and has star status in terms of name recognition. He isn’t running for President to gain wealth or build his brand as some have been absurdly suggesting! He isn’t taking money and doesn’t need it.

          It’s not an endorsement for Trump but these are some of things that he brings and make him stand out.

    • Dex T says:

      I don’t agree with that at all. There’s a big difference being polite and being frowned upon or expected not to discuss certain important topics because they make people feel “uncomfortable”. There are a lot of people and groups who try to shout down legitimate ideas because “someone” is always offended by something.

      Illegal immigration in the U.S. is one such topic. Until Trump started talking about it all of the other candidates avoided the topic for fear of causing controversy hoping to play it safe. Most of them continue to avoid the issue because they know they will be immediately attacked and criticized.

      Trump is a straight shooter but a lot of people like his direct honesty. There is a lot of truth in what he says despite people not liking it. A lot of the illegals in this country are criminals and involved in drugs, prostitution, fraud, etc… While not every Mexican is involved or responsible it’s something that needs and many (if not most) Americans want to be seriously discussed.

      By focusing on the needs of actual voters instead a handful of wealthy party policymakers Trump rocketed into first place.

      • fishonhook says:

        There are 11 M illegals in this country if they were criminals there would be chaos. Most murders are committed by Americans. Would love to find out where the workers on Trumps buildings and country club are from? Are they unionized US workers or illegals. I think I can guess.

        • Dex T says:

          There is and has been chaos. All you need to do is review the news. Sure not everyone is a criminal but the point is when you don’t have border security then you don’t know who is entering the country and what their intentions are!

    • lbspytrader says:

      Wouldn’t it be fun to have Bill back in the WH chasing skirts, hiding out in the closet with his pants down and the bonus he would not have to do anything presidential. Just let Hillary do it. Plus the stock market loved the Clintons. Those were the days where even the average joe was making $1000 a day trading. With the Clinton’s in the WH we may see 36,000 on DJI.

      • tony caldaro says:

        This time Hilary will be looking over the interns.
        Bill will be redecorating the first lady’s sitting room😉

        • Would be interesting. Not sure if one can be president without a security clearance. Hers has to be suspended at the moment, pending completion of investigation (Not talking about Congressional inquiry & testimony). Reinstatement of said clearance will take, well, an act of Congress – so to speak. Don’t let it be determined that her “spillage” led (directly or indirectly) to Benghazi attack… She’ll do time (that Obama won’t be able to pardon) and Bill will be a free(r) man. Dems might want to have someone taking warmup swings on deck.

  9. Looks like ABs 2080 today,.Then, after Japan announces more QE highs by Tuesday at 2135…then Yellens surprise QE announcement–2300 by Friday.Bull market over in a week…Happy Halloween.I think that s how the CBs did it last time too.EU QE and China rate cuts in 24 hours.Think they re long equities? Ehhh could be doc.

  10. Dex T says:

    Once again Bernanke jumps into the news foot in mouth first to demonstrate how clueless he is. Bernanke’s ENTIRE career has been built off of holding stable risk free jobs.

    I wonder what he says when the bear comes and we see the S&P rise from the 2009 low cut in half?

    It’s not a question of “entitlement”- but of maintaining a balanced economy. His no interest rate QE environment creates huge asset bubbles, welfare like dependence on government by banks and large funds and fraudulent companies who use the “cheap money” to mask their earnings growth.

    Ben Bernanke has no patience for the idea that Fed policy is hurting savers

    “It’s ironic that the same people who criticise the Fed for helping the rich also criticise the Fed for hurting savers,” Bernanke told the FT’s Martin Wolf. “And those two things are inconsistent. But what’s the alternative? Should the Fed not try to support a recovery?”

    “The basic complaint here from critics is that by keeping interest rates at 0%, investors and savers of all types — but most notably “regular” people who are saving for retirement — are forced “out the risk curve.”

    This means that instead of buying a relatively safe asset like a government bond, these folks have to buy riskier assets like stocks to get the 5% or 6% annual return they need to meet retirement goals.

    For a number of reasons, this sort of complaint is silly and fundamentally misunderstands what investing and saving really entails, which is the pursuit of certain returns balanced against that return’s inherent risks. ”

    • The problem is that the FED (monetary policy) has taken on nearly 100% of the role of guiding the economy. The other tool (fiscal policy) has been pretty much abandoned by the Executive Branch and Capitol HIll.

      So, what the FED is doing is engaging in a currency war (by driving rates down) same as other exporting countries. This has the undesirable side effect of creating asset bubbles. Ten years ago, 5% CDs and T-Bills were ubiquitous. But now, who knows what this CD money is invested in, and it will most certainly blow up at some point.

      Donald Trump’s idea of Import Tariffs deserves some serious consideration. It will protect jobs, same as FED’s crazy currency war is doing, but without the unwanted side effect of creating these huge market distortions. As far as “Free Trade” goes, China already has huge import tariffs. Trump merely wants to even the playing field. Just sayin’

      • Dex T says:

        A problem is that the Fed couldn’t spot an asset bubble to save their lives. Their policy is to lie low and wait for the damn to break to do something substantive. They also have absolutely NO courage to stand up to Wall Street and are too closely involved with them. They should just make an analysis and set policy accordingly. Their nonstop press conferences are also too much. It’s not a T.V. show!

        I am open in my voting and will consider Trump. My issue with him is that’s he’s been across the board politically and ideawise through his career.

        • fishonhook says:

          Do you really think Trump, Billionaire made in the system , good friends with WS cronies who fired their analysts if they critique his-soon-to-be-bankrupt compnies will change the system?

          • Dex T says:

            I don’t know. He has certainly taken a lot of flak by speaking his mind and saying a lot of politically incorrect things that he didn’t have to. At his age and wealth he could just run another dull campaign like the other candidates and make a showing. I do think he will shake up some things-certainly a lot more than any of the other candidates.

            At this point I’m undecided and think that after 4 years of a Trump presidency a lot of people would be left scratching their heads wondering what just happened. I’m sure he would accomplish a lot but don’t really know WHAT he would accomplish.

        • vorfahrt says:

          So he’s not consistently enough neo-nazi for you? – Poor you.

          • kevinm76 says:

            Its funny how people always pull the Nazi card. Shows how ignorant people are about the past. I remember republicans calling Bill Clinton Hitler. Then Democrats said Bush was Hitler, now it’s Obama as the anti-christ/Hitler. You get the point.

            Ignorance is bliss I guess…lol

          • Dex T says:

            Trump is NOT a Neo-nazi as anyone can tell from his biographies and history. Just because he’s in favor of border security and is considering the American people first doesn’t make him a “Nazi” . Like I said above I’m not certain but there are things about him I like and will leave it that.

            It’s exactly your attitude and type of attacks that have made him so popular and in first place. When he first announced his candidacy I didn’t take him seriously at all. But after month of watching the debates listening to his interviews and reviewing his platform I am open to the idea of him.

            Anyway we’re getting way off topic from the board and markets.

        • Dex …”across the board politically and ideawise” … Could be.

          Trump “toyed” with running for POTUS in 2012. Actually wrote and published a policy book. “Time to Get Tough …”. Covers a lot of stuff, no changes from today. One area covered is Trade Deficits. I don’t think there are ideological sides to that, either you get it or you don’t. Trump does get it.

          • Dex T says:

            We can discuss this a lot but I don’t want to turn Tony’s excellent TA board in a political candidacy.

            I’m following the primaries and will have to wait and see.

        • kevinm76 says:


          Just like that, the masses have forgotten about the 2007-2008 crisis. I even saw somebody yesterday claim they have 75% of their wealth in real estate. A defiant action considering what happened. The biggest bubble to encompasses the majority of people in the history of mankind no less,popped not to long ago and people are claiming a new bull market has emerged. If anything the high wealth zip codes never popped and are in their last wave higher so to speak. It’s interesting when people say real estate prices are still depressed. I guess they are talking about the areas of the country that were hit the hardest. You know the places where strippers and thugs were buying multiple houses on no doc loans. I encourage anyone to go and check out the chart of real estate in high income zip codes around the country and you will see most if not all have taken out the highs of the last bubble, which was in 2006-2007. The bubble continues…………

  11. Tony am I wrong or this wave shouldn’t have stopped as it has ? The retrace on the 15 mnts looks too dip on the futures.

  12. pbnj123 says:

    BIG picture question here sorry but I am confused.
    I went back to your first listed post from August 2005 – there you stated
    “cycle 1 1932-1937
    cycle 2 1937-1942
    cycle 3 1942-1973
    cycle 4 1973-1982
    cycle 5 1982-2000
    super cycle bottom 2002
    On October 9, 2002 the stock markets started a new beginning. A super cycle that should last another 70 years”
    But looking at the bottom of 2002 you have on your charts PRIV?

    But in last weekend Long Term View post you stated
    “With SC 1 as a template we have been expecting a relatively short Cycle wave [1] bull market from the March 2009 SC 2 low. At first we thought it might last five years, then eight years, now we would not be surprised if it ended 2015/2016. The important point is that we knew it would not last 30+ years. That is expected for Cycle wave [3]. After the current bull market tops, a one to two year Cycle wave [2] bear market will follow”

    What am I not able to put together in my mind??
    What am I missing?

    Did SC1 start in 2002 or 2009?
    Sorry – just VERY confused from the big picture view.
    Sorry for the long post but I really need this cleared up in my head.
    Thank you

    • tony caldaro says:

      Was wrong during that period.
      Thought the crash in the Techs was sufficient, but obviously was not.
      Posted a big picture view last weekend.

    • kevinm76 says:

      Predicting that far into the future is futile and Tony should know better than to put out such insane forecasts. Afterall, if he’s wrong he’ll just say wooopps, I was wrong, I’m human etc….. You see how foolish it is to predict the future.

      You got gurus everywhere proclaiming they can see into the future, yet somebody/groups of people have to be wrong. Thus this creates the problem. One issue that is still here and now is the European, Japanese, British and the United States debt problem. The entire system is built around this debt. What happen to the bull when the system resets like it always has in the past? You got alot of optimists here that assume everything will be fine. Look back in history and it not all peaches and cream folks, when you have that kind of debt looming.

      A bull market that last 70 years. Please……….most here will be dead……

  13. blackjak100 says:

    W4 cannot overlap into 2055 – 2063 needs to hold to have ‘right look’ for subdividing minor 3.

  14. ewmarkets says:

    Weekly chart 2011 and 2015 comparison:
    The four weekly candles are almost identical to the four weekly candles in 2011, at about the same time.

  15. ewmarkets says:

    Weekly Fork median line targets are met. They are targets, not necessarily reversal points.

  16. purplember says:

    tony are you thinking P5 just reaches new high 2135+ to 2200 area or is blow off top to 2,500 (like some are predicting) is possible? odds ?

  17. mjtplayer says:

    Wow, CNBC reporting that the Jeb Bush campaign is cutting staff and downsizing payroll by 40%. Looks like he might be the next headline candidate to drop out after Scott Walker. Other than Trump – who’s left? Rubio, Carson & Cruz? The others have no shot.

    With Biden not running, Hillary will be the Dem nominee, if she’s not in jail😉

  18. H D says:

    I drew a line on the $DJI chart. It is what it is.

  19. phil1247 says:

    ES FUTURES 15 min short trading from 2074 high……… opportunity to enter here..already down 11 points from high………. going to have to take profits unless this short breaks

  20. ABchart says:

    ES 60 minutes: negative divergence (not yet on SPX cash)

  21. gtoptions says:

    Thanks Tony & All
    SPY ~ Move back over WR4 @ 207.37 Next WR5 @ 208.87
    Enjoy the Weekend

  22. tommyboys says:

    Gap at Nasdaq 200SMA will most definitely have to fill prior to going higher. Back to 4920…

  23. sibyn says:

    SPX very short term 2098 formation.
    Today? We’ll see…

  24. Dex T says:

    Bernanke is being brought out in the news for his “opinions” on a rate rise and how “difficult” it will be for Yellen to make a decision. His answer is that nothing should be done. HAHA-no surprises. Just keep appearing to reassure everyone that everything is ok.

    Now when have we heard this before (2007)? Basically everything is ok- unless of course we enter into a recession-then it’s not ok.

    “Bernanke said the Fed is keenly aware of the potential for asset price bubbles and other imbalances in this low interest rate environment. However, he does not see any current trouble”

    “If we were to get another recession, then we would be in trouble,” Bernanke said. “So there’s a case there for being cautious…You don’t want to have to raise rates and then have to come right back down to zero in a situation where the economy is weak and you don’t have the tools,” he said.”

    • purplember says:

      Bernanke didn’t see any problems in 2007 so why would he now

      • Dex T says:

        Because he went through the crisis and supposedly went back and reviewed the financial data determining the same types of conditions that caused it and are showing u no.

        I was hoping that he learned SOMETHING from his tenure but I guess not. Full speed ahead even if the wheels are about to come off!

        • torehund says:

          Problem in academia/organizations: If you see a problem beforehand and warns, you may even end up being accused for causing it…. So you better pretend you don’t see anything.
          2nd, all have screwed up, or will screw up somewhere down the line, so even if you see someone doing a bummer, the most beneficial option is to keep your mouth shut, if you dont as a revenge your own previous mistakes may end up being lifted out of the hidden. Loyalty makes mistakes stays within “the house”.
          These structures “by design” have no warning button from within…..They just blow up when its time🙂

  25. Lee X says:

    Nice job Tony !
    Nice fork on ur weekly chart
    Nice series with the Mets
    Nice day out enjoy !

  26. mjtplayer says:

    Thanks for answering my question below Tony.

    When looking at the ’99 – ’00 top, it’s a tough one to gauge – as any blow-off top would be. 10%+ correction from July ’99 – Oct ’99. Then a straight-up move, but no clear 5-waves up, it was a straight-up move from Oct 15th to Jan 3rd (2 months & 19 days by the calendar). Then a big 6% pullback in just 2 days, which turned out to be a false break, only to reverse and rally back to new highs over the next 4 trading sessions; the top came just a few after that rally, then a 16% drop in 2 months too kick-off the bear market.

    No doubt this top will be difficult as well, they all are. Are you expecting the same type of volatility, with large swings and false moves in both directions?

    • tony caldaro says:

      There was Tech euphoria then, the DOW topped in January.
      Not seeing that euphoria now, except in corporate cultures.

      • The euphoria is that CBs can and will provide permanent liquidity to create months like this.After seeing economies not improve with QE (US, Japan, Europe), you d think there wouldn t be this reaction.But the euphoria continues.But a .25 hike was armageddon? Obviously yes.

        • …and also currency problems caused by rate increases.It s so tightly manipulated that any deviation will start some domino effect–which is now proven to be something the markets are in no mood to try to adjust to.

  27. phil1247 says:

    EMBEDDED STOCHASTICS… remain … 2095 target is upper boll band

    still 50% long from 2004

    25% long from 2032

    going to start chasing with upro again if i can get in good rc…..hahahaha

  28. CampFreddie says:

    Mkts nearly back to pre-crash levels … it was all just a bad dream after all.
    Big Funds charging back into stawks imo, benchmarks and bonuses are everything.

  29. cicelyalaska says:

    2 signals are still sell, 3rd signal just turned to sell this morning. However if we go any higher than 2078, they all revert to BUY. We are at the limit of a B wave.

  30. aahmichael says:

    Just exited my long position. 40 points in 24 hours was a gift.

  31. rc1269 says:

    boy at this rate PV could be over by Thanksgiving! that would be something

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