Friday update

SHORT TERM: gap up opening, DOW +74

Overnight the Asian markets gained 0.9%. Europe opened higher and gained 0.5%. US index futures bounced around overnight, and at 9:15 Industrial production was reported lower: -0.2% v -0.4%. The market gapped up at the open to SPX 2030, ticked up one point, then pulled back to 2024 (yesterday’s close) by 10:30. At 10am Consumer sentiment was reported higher: 92.1 v 87.2. The market then rallied back to SPX 2031 by noon, only to pullback to a lower low at 2020 by 2pm. After that the market rallied to SPX 2034 just before a 2033 close.

For the day the SPX/DOW gained 0.45%, and the NDX/NAZ gained 0.40%. Bonds lost 4 ticks, Crude gained 75 cents, Gold slid $7, and the USD was higher. Medium term support remains at the 2019 and 1973 pivots, with resistance at the 2070 and 2085 pivots. Today the WLEI was reported lower: 47.8% v 48.9%.

The market opened higher today, hit a new high for the uptrend at SPX 2031, pulled back to 2020, and then went into a trading range for the rest of the day until hitting 2034 just before the close. We are still counting the rally from Wednesday’s SPX 1991 low as wave one of Intermediate wave iii. The possible subdivisions are: 2008-1997-2031-2020-2034 so far. Short term support remains at the 2019 pivot and SPX 2000, with resistance at SPX 2040 and the 2070 pivot. Short term momentum set up a potential negative divergence at today’s close. Best to your weekend!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend

LONG TERM: bull market


About tony caldaro

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20 Responses to Friday update

  1. Looks like the first 13/34 day cross-over since the sell-off began.

  2. tomasso60 says:

    thanks Tony
    time to ready self for blue jays and KC Royals
    have a great weekend

  3. gtoptions says:

    Thanks Tony
    Looks like 2070 Pivot up next. Good Weekend

  4. GYN LAB says:

    Good evening!
    Various gap fills going on today (VIX, ES, etc) also running into big resistance. Futures closing the week on top tick should have some upside Monday or max Tuesday. Personally looking for ES 2040 area for short with a daily reversal candle Mon/Tues. 2030 another interesting point too.

  5. Potential neg divergence in daily RSI too, for SPX and NDX

  6. aahmichael says:

    As usual, my count is different than anything else presented here. As you know, I believe that it’s a three wave move from the 8/24 low to the 9/17 high, and then another three wave move back down to 9/29, and now we’ve come to the end (or very close to the end,) of yet another three wave rally up to today’s close. The recent 3 week rally has not been an impulse wave. It’s been an a-b-c-x-a-b-c. 1916 (or 1927, either way works)-1894-1992-1976-2020-1991-2034.
    This count is consistent in SPX, DOW, OEX, IWM, IWR, XMI, NYA, COMP, NDX.

  7. Gap filled on the VIX at 15.25 from 8/19, which should cause a bounce on it and drop on the SPX soon… probably Monday, but we’ll see.

    • blackjak100 says:

      Yes, and history suggests we are NOT in bear market with VIX close near 15. P5 looks very probable here.

  8. blackjak100 says:

    I have no trading longs in my account as of 5 min before close. However, I’m not short yet. I have to take a closer look, but the move from 2020 does not appear complete. Should complete mon which would be 14 trading days from bottom. I’m waiting for some type of trigger Before shorting. Big Down setup on min? -div RSI on daily chart has been on of the best indicators during this bull market for a quick short IMO.

    • blackjak100 says:

      After looking at 3 min chart, it’s looks like an impulse from 2020 thus int i could be in @ 2034 lasting 13 trading days. I know this is not TC’s count but in case his is right, simply starti scaling long around 2000. I’m outta here!

  9. mike7x says:

    Thanks Tony! May be time for a pull-back heading towards Janet’s next big pow-wow.

  10. Sandra Dons says:

    Starts always the day after

    Hope this time not the “right” time too

  11. stephenk1980 says:

    Sold the close as it’s reached my target range. Not massively optimistic, but we’ll see.

  12. mjtplayer says:

    Thanks Tony!

    With that last drive higher in the final 2 hours we now have 5 waves up on the hourly chart from Wednesday’s low of SPX 1,990 as Tony mentioned. But, is minor 5 and thus int i now complete? Or are we completing minor 1 of int iii as Tony thinks? The next pullback will be critical.

    – div’s on the hourly and daily, perfect for a 5th wave. Also, the HOD thus far is SPX 2,033 which is right at the .618 retrace from the entire drop:

    2,134.72 high, 1,867.01 low; .618 retrace = 2,032.45

    We’ll see….

  13. pooch77 says:

    strong move down starting Monday

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