Wednesday update

SHORT TERM: gap up, reverse, then rally, DOW +122

Overnight the Asian markets gained 1.4%. Europe opened higher and gained 0.3%. US index futures were higher overnight, and the market gapped up at the open to SPX 1990. The SPX had closed at 1980 yesterday. At 10:30 the SPX hit 1999 and then started to pullback. The pullback lasted for one hour as the SPX hit 1976, and then it started to rally again. At 2pm the SPX hit 1996. It then pulled back to SPX 1986 by 3pm, when Consumer credit was reported lower: $16.0B v $19.1B. After that it rallied into a SPX 1996 close.

For the day the SPX/DOW gained 0.75%, and the NDX/NAZ gained 0.75%. Bonds lost 10 ticks, Crude slid 35 cents, Gold slipped $1, and the USD was flat. Medium term support remains at the 1973 and 1956 pivots, with resistance at the 2019 and 2070 pivots. Tomorrow: weekly Jobless claims at 8:30, then FOMC minutes at 2pm.

The market gapped up at the open today for the fourth time, in six days, since the SPX 1872 low. After an hour of trading, and hitting resistance at SPX 1999, the market then pulled back, closing the gap, and hit 1976. After that it worked its way higher into the close. Clearly the potential H&S pattern had no impact today, as the market completed five waves up from the recent SPX 1894 low (using the small swings). Or completed five waves up from the SPX 1872 low (using the larger swings). Either way this last week’s rally looks impulsive. Short term support remains at the 1973 and 1956 pivots, with resistance at SPX 2000 and the 2019 pivot. Short term momentum hit neutral after today’s negative divergence at the highs. Best to your “often volatile” FOMC trading tomorrow.

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend

LONG TERM: bull market


About tony caldaro

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209 Responses to Wednesday update

  1. johnnymagicmoney says:

    If the market is so great why do you have JPM, AAPL, PFE, the Biotech Index, Amazon, Google, Banc of America all in the red today. this is way too fragmented

  2. Dex T says:

    Zweig Breadth Thrust Indicator has only been accurately used to forecast the beginning of a new bull market. There is no way that the drop to S&P 1867 was the bear and a new bull is starting.

  3. manunidhi21 says:

    thanks for updating the chart.
    If it is iii of 3 then what will be the minimum target for wave 3 ?

  4. rc1269 says:

    Ohhh you guys will love this one:

    9/29/15 retest came within exactly 4.7264 SPX points of the 8/25/15 low

    Today’s intraday high (if it holds) is EXACTLY… 4.7264 points below the high on 9/17/15

    you just can’t make this stuff up

    • stephenk1980 says:

      Haha that’s crazy! I have to say I thought it’d get a bit closer. Don’t want to be a pip dick but I often see it get within .2% and this was just out. I’m on the fence now as the Dow also didn’t quite get to my ‘place’.

      • rc1269 says:

        despite my better judgment and against the potential new trend, the bots are just screaming at me to put on a short term trading short here

        • manunidhi21 says:

          Hi RC.. we did not clear 2019 so you may have a chance but if it is iii of 3 then it may get brutal.

    • purplember says:

      that’s as crazy as Obama taking office and SP bottoms at 666 in 09′

  5. cicelyalaska says:

    Right to 2020 pivot.

    • johnnymagicmoney says:

      impulsive yes…………but this has gone up 8% Im selling rest of my longs here and shorting

  6. pooch77 says:

    1 hour to go naz should pick up 45 points

  7. Jim Guthery says:

    We have all seen this before, digest the news and reverse! How long is it going to take?

  8. ABchart says:

    NYMO AT 95. Seen that only a few times in the last 20 years. The last time it happened, the SPX droped 4.5% (july 2012)

Comments are closed.