Tuesday update

SHORT TERM: H&S (?) Tuesday, DOW +14

Overnight the Asian markets gained 0.4%. Europe opened lower but gained 0.8%. US index futures were lower overnight, and at 8:30 the Trade deficit was reported larger: -$48.3B v -$41.9B. The market opened three points below yesterday’s SPX 1987 close, ticked down to 1983, then rallied up to 1992 by 10am. After that the market started to pullback. The market worked its way lower until it hit SPX 1972 at 12:30. Then after rally to SPX 1984 by 2:30, then market dipped to close at 1980.

For the day the SPX/DOW were mixed, and the NDX/NAZ were -0.65%. Bonds gained 7 ticks, Crude rallied $2.45, Gold rose $11, and the USD was lower. Medium term support remains at the 1973 and 1956 pivots, with resistance at the 2019 and 2070 pivots. Tomorrow: Consumer credit at 3pm.

The market opened a bit lower, then rallied to SPX 1992. At the high a potential head and shoulders technical pattern appeared: 1993-2021-1992. The market then had its largest pullback since Friday’s SPX 1894 low. We can now count three waves up from that low using the normal range: 1936-1927-1992. Or just one wave, using the more volatile range. If the rally is now in the fourth wave the 1973 pivot range should hold and higher highs should be next. If the rally just ended, the downside objective would be the gap at the 1956 pivot range and then lower. We tend to favor the four wave pattern at the moment. Short term support is at the 1973 and 1956 pivots, with resistance at SPX 2000 and the 2019 pivot. Short term momentum dropped from extremely overbought to neutral. Best to your trading!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend

LONG TERM: bull market

CHARTS: http://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

About tony caldaro

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195 Responses to Tuesday update

  1. rc1269 says:

    if you had any doubt wether the bots were in control of this market, just look at that amazing intraday symmetry, both in time and price, of all the little blips along the way.

  2. I sold my GDX…down to 5% from 27% ntil it decides what to do at these levels.Good luck all.

  3. EL MATADOR says:

    Well well well, BlackRock as a “Market Maker” leader in the ETF world is looking for ways to protect itself from massive mispricing during times of illiquidity (“flash crashes”). They know it a serious threat to their very existence and need to do something about it before it’s too late.


  4. johnnymagicmoney says:

    IWM went right to the 6/23 trendline @ around 114.50 and sold


  5. I’m wondering if we have an ascending triangle going on for wave 4.

  6. rc1269 says:

    just entered a 1978.5 stop on the remaining half of my trading long, fwiw

  7. nickokc says:

    Tony looks like this market go up and down with OIL!! question on natural gas do you see inverted H&S shoulder? I think 2.40 was the bottom any comments will be greatly appreciated

  8. reddragonleo says:

    Did this video a little while ago and just realized I forgot to post it here (I posted it on my Twitter page though) http://screencast.com/t/xRF57kP67

    Got the drop but I don’t think it’s over with. I do think we drop more Thursday.

    • Jim Guthery says:

      Drop Thursday mid day into Friday and again on Monday

      • reddragonleo says:

        Certainly odds favor Thursday and probably some on Friday… Monday I’m not sure on? Can’t see that far out yet. I’d say we topped today for this first big wave up and will have at least an ABC down… which I see the A already done and the B up into the close right now. So gap down on Thursday for the C? Then maybe some ABC up again and back down Friday/Monday? Possible.

        • alexhartley1 says:

          FWIW – I actually prefer dropping more today. Retrace some tomorrow and then fall further Friday to bottom short term in a standard ABC down. I have turns 9-13 and 16-19 and then 27*. We’ll soon find out. Cheers

          • reddragonleo says:

            I’d prefer a huge one week crash when I’m “all in short” but SkyNet rarely gives us sheep what we want. LOL. But seriously, after this pullback is over with we should see another move up higher next week. I think we’ll top out in early-mid November and then we’ll drop hard again and break 1867 SPX.

          • alexhartley1 says:

            Ha – I too think we’ll go higher next week but I am not sure I can now (having been bearish for another low below 1867) get my head around another large drop. My guess is we’re dropping into 27th and I see that as a significant turn.

  9. rc1269 says:

    somebody smart around here said recently, “beware the gap close that keeps going”, or something to that effect

    keep on your toes y’all

  10. scottycj1 says:

    Gravestone Doji in the Dax ?

  11. purplember says:

    so do we have 5 waves up from 1872 to 1998 ?

Comments are closed.