Thursday update

SHORT TERM: choppy day, DOW -13

Last night FED governor Brainard gave a speech after the market closed: Asian markets gained 1.0%. Europe opened higher but lost 0.7%. US index futures were volatile overnight, and at 8:30 weekly Jobless claims were reported higher: 277k v 267k. The market gapped up at the open to SPX 1926, ticked up to 1927, then started to pullback. The market had closed at SPX 1920 yesterday. At 10am Construction spending was reported higher: +0.7% v +0.7%. Also at 10am the SPX hit 1909. Then it rallied to SPX 1922 by 10:30, and then hit the low of the day 1901 at noon. After that it rallied for the rest of the day: hitting SPX 1925 just before a 1924 close.

For the day the SPX/DOW were mixed, and the NDX/NAZ gained +0.2%. Bonds gained 2 ticks, Crude ended flat, Gold slipped $1, and the USD was lower. Medium term support remains at the 1901 and 1869 pivots, with resistance at the 1929 and 1956 pivots. Tomorrow: monthly Payrolls (est. +200k) at 8:30, then Factory orders at 10am. There is also a speech from FED vice chair Fischer at 1:30.

The market gapped up at the open for the second day in a row. However unlike yesterday, this gap up was over within minutes of the opening as the market immediately headed lower. After hitting SPX 1927, for three waves up from 1872: 1917-1897-1927, the market then did three waves down: 1909-1922-1901. Notice the rally stopped at the 1929 pivot, and the decline at the 1901 pivot. This leaves use with five waves from Tuesday’s SPX 1872 low: 1917-1897-1927-1901-1925. This choppy action is not what we were expecting. We were looking for a clean five waves up. For now we have overlapping waves. Short term support is at the 1901 and 1869 pivots, with resistance at the 1929 and 1956 pivots. Short term momentum hit slightly overbought, dropped to neutral, and then went back to overbought at the close. Best to your trading tomorrow’s Payroll numbers!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend

LONG TERM: bull market


About tony caldaro

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184 Responses to Thursday update

  1. asaraniti says:

    If the $SPX is in minor wave 4 down. Then wave 3 was approx 100 points. Wave 4 commonly corrects 23.6% – 38.1% of wave 3.

    Targets would be…..
    23.6% 23 points = SPX1968
    38.1% 38 points = SPX 1953

    Right around Tony’s 1956 pivot (a bit off from the 23.6% correction)

    I plan to go long around these 2 levels.

  2. uncle10 says:

    Thanks Tony. What a great trading market!! wow. I thought we were going to gap down and go down, but the market had other plans. 😉 hehehe
    Good stuff from the board today. Thanks.
    Great weekend all.

  3. “Target for a swing long is 1947 – 1953.” Today’s PA takes care of Tuesday’s daily Big Up minimum target. Next target range is 2039 up to 2061. Have fun with it.

  4. Well today certainly seems to help the Primary V argument.Looks impulsive today. Gap and go Monday?

  5. lbspytrader says:


    Excellent buy call at 1910.

  6. ewmarkets says:

    Broadening wedge upside breakout target is around 1972.
    Wave C target is around 2000.

  7. reddragonleo says:

    SPX End of Day Update October 2nd, 2015 -

  8. john b says:

    in a st resistance area now

  9. phil1247 says:

    calling the top of wave c here at 1945………selling longs from 1906 this am… hasta all!!

  10. We posted multiple signs of a market bottom earlier this week to our group of subscribers, Im copying it here for you all fwiw…. (Now we have a nice double bottom too)
    1967 remains key resistance, if taken out then Intermediate B could see 2080 by December
    We have quite a few indicators lining up for an interim Market Bottom at hand here as we roll into October and the 3rd quarter window dressing period winds down. Below is a list to think about

    23% Fibonacci retrace of 1074-2134 Wave 3 rally retested ?…. Yes

    ABC pattern from May highs? Yes

    Double bottom retest done? Yes

    % Of NYSE stocks below 200 day MA near Aug lows? Yes

    Fear indexes high?? Yes

    Biotech sector the former leader crashed? Yes

    Dennis Gartman bearish? Yes

    Carl Icahn releases a movie about market danger? Yes

    Percentage of retail traders short historically high? Yes

    Percentage of advisors more bears than bulls? Yes

    Is the market bottomed? Getting darn close it seems

    See our charts today that update the SP 500 wave count and also the % of NYSE stocks below the 200 day MA line, now at 83%!! We said in recent forecast updates in weekend reports to watch for a retest of 1867 (We hit 1870 yesterday) and also a re-test of that NYSE Indicator…. both pretty close or close enough

    Maybe a wash still to 1810-1840 is in the cards but we are in the 8th inning of this portion of the Bear cycle from May highs. Most bear cycles are A B C… we could be finishing Wave A here soon we hope….

  11. rc1269 says:

    not impulsive yet? c’mon guys and gals. big outside day here. nice looking weekly candle for a reversal. don’t overthink it. whether you’re a long term bull or bear this market looks ready for a bounch

    • Intermediate Wave A is done… wave 5 was 61% of 3 at 1870 plus minus

    • blackjak100 says:

      possible RC and anyone looking to count the waves just need to look at Pretzel’s count. He is expecting 2060ish now and has been for several weeks. This would kickoff of 3 of c. Nice double bottom on NYAD as well.

  12. stmro says:

    Wow what a reversal today. Whoever it was that added long at 1910, i’m sorry i ever doubted.

    We’re right up at the middle band now. Close convincingly above 1942 and maybe we head to the upper BB/50dma at 2000 next week.

  13. mjtplayer says:

    Anyone here use Scottrade? They just reported a “data breach” (hacked), effecting 4.6m customers. Yikes.

  14. Page says:

    Prepare for SPX 2000 target 🙂

  15. GYN LAB says:

    50% back to 1915 area a good place to enter/add longs IMO

  16. gtoptions says:

    Thank Tony ~ Enjoy your Weekend
    SPY ~ Expanding Triangle?

  17. wavediver says:

    Nice call, Sandra.

  18. rc1269 says:

    starting to look a little more impulsive now, isn’t it

    • blackjak100 says:

      Still looks like a counter trend rally with XLF down and R2K flat. Next fib/time projection 1947ish late mon 50%. Would not be shocked to see close flat on week or 1933ish.

    • phil1247 says:

      could be the c wave of upward abc correction before further collapse

      • phil1247 says:

        looks like a triangle 4 0f c up forming ..a nice pop to finish off 5 0f c into 1940s and i will sell all longs and await gap down monday start to wave c down

  19. manunidhi21 says:

    Namaste Tony!
    Developing +ve div on Weekly Spx RSI of any significance ?
    Or its Chop Chop

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