SHORT TERM: end of quarter rally, DOW +236
Overnight the Asian markets gained 1.8%. Europe opened higher and gained 2.5%. US index futures were much higher overnight, and at 8:15 the ADP was reported higher: 200k v 190k. The market gapped up at the open to SPX 1906 and continued to rally. The SPX had closed at 1884 yesterday. At 9:45 the Chicago PMI was reported sharply lower: 48.7 v 54.4. The rally continued until 10:30 when the SPX hit 1917. After that the market pulled back to SPX 1897 just before 1pm. Then it started to rally again. At 3pm FED chair Yellen’s speech: http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/yellen20150930a.htm. The market rallied to SPX 1921 just before a 1920 close.
For the day the SPX/DOW were +1.70%, and the NDX/NAZ were +2.35%. Bonds lost 2 ticks, Crude added 25 cents. Gold dropped $11, and the USD was higher. Medium term support rises to the 1901 and 1869 pivots, with resistance at the 1929 and 1956 pivots. Tomorrow: weekly Jobless claims at 8:30, then Construction spending, Auto sales, and ISM manufacturing at 10am.
The market gapped up at the open today following yesterday’s completed 5 waves down, a last hour rally, and a short term positive divergence. The rally continued to SPX 1917, gaining 45 points off yesterday’s 1872 low. This barely exceeds the SPX 1909-1953 wave 3-4 rally during the five wave decline. With today’s rally we now have confirmed uptrends in the four major indices. However, the fact that these four indices are all uptrending does not totally clear up the P4 – P5 count. Primary IV can still extend into November, unless Primary V starts impulsing throughout October. The current rally is quite important for the medium, and for the matter, long term. The 1+ hour surge from yesterday’s 3:30 low at SPX 1872 to today’s 10:30 high of SPX 1917 looks quite impressive for a kickoff. If the foreign markets can continue their rallies, the US market can continue higher as well. Thus far from the SPX 1872 low we have 1917-1897-1921. Short term support is at the 1901 and 1869 pivots, with resistance at the 1929 and 1956 pivots. Short term momentum hit slightly overbought at today’s high, and closed there. Best to your trading!
MEDIUM TERM: uptrend
LONG TERM: bull market