Monday update

SHORT TERM: red Monday follows blood moon, DOW -313

Overnight the Asian markets lost 1.1%. Europe opened lower and lost 2.5%. Early this morning FED governor Tarullo’s speech was released: At 8:30 Personal income (+0.3% v +0.4%) / spending (+0.4% v +0.3%) was reported higher, and PCE prices were reported higher: +0.1% v +0.1%. The market gapped down at the open to SPX 1918. The market had closed at SPX 1931 on Friday. After the open the market continued lower until it hit SPX 1903 by 10:30. At 10am Pending home sales were reported lower: -1.4% v +0.5%. Then after a bounce to SPX 1911 by 11am, to market dropped to SPX 1880 just after 2pm. A bigger bounce followed to SPX 1891 just before 3pm, then the market hit a lower low at 1879 just past 3pm. Heading into the close the SPX bounced again to 1889, then dropped to 1882 to end the day.

For the day the SPX/DOW were -2.25%, and the NDX/NAZ were -2.95%. Bonds gained 19 ticks, Crude dropped $1.20, Gold dropped $14, and the USD was lower. Medium term support drops to the 1869 and 1841 pivots, with resistance at the 1901 and 1929 pivots. Tomorrow: Case-Shiller at 9am, then Consumer confidence at 10am.

The market gapped down at the open, then exceeded last week’s SPX 1909 low in the first hour of trading. After that it headed lower, with several bounces along the way, to SPX 1879. Quite a drop for one day of trading. The impulse wave from SPX 2021 continues to unfold: 1953-1980-1909-1953-1879 (so far). The 5th wave down has thus far subdivided into three waves, expecting five: 1922-1935-1879. Short term momentum ended the day at extremely oversold, expecting a 4th wave bounce soon. Then the market should complete the 5th wave down, between the 1828 and 1869 pivots, to possibly end the downtrend and Primary IV. Defensive positions (hedging) remain favored, as they have been for many weeks. Short term support is at the 1869 and 1841 pivots, with resistance at the 1901 and 1929 pivots. Best to your trading!

MEDIUM TERM: downtrend

LONG TERM: bull market


About tony caldaro

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185 Responses to Monday update

  1. johnnymagicmoney says:

    lot of green on the screen for a bottom. Doesnt feel like a flush either. Doesnt look like a flush

  2. rc1269 says:

    close enough for govt work – all my shorts are now closed. cheers

  3. fotis2 says:

    Really?? how’s this for a reverse man they got our number!!

  4. johnnymagicmoney says:

    man that 1867 is like a friggin magnet ………………here it comes ……………….but the VIX is doing nada ………………..hmmmmmm

  5. Major positive divergences on TNA on lower price. (higher rsi, higher low Stoch/Macd, etc). End of quarter flush and Oct is bear killer month. It’s always the best month for the Rut to bottom. That said, want to double your money? How about next APR TNA BULL CALL SPREAD (60/64) Buy the $60 Apr 2016 call and sell the $64 for $1.75. You think TNA won’t bounce over $64 between now and 7 months from now?

    Easy money.

  6. berniebaruch says:

    Been traveling a good bit and not an everyday reader. Any Newbie sightings?

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