Thursday update

SHORT TERM: gap down opening, DOW -79

Overnight the Asian markets lost 1.2%. Europe opened lower and lost 1.9%. US index futures were lower overnight. At 8:30 weekly Jobless claims were reported higher: 267k v 264k, and Durable goods were reported lower: -2.0% v +2.2%. The market gapped down at the open to SPX 1926, and hit 1914 in the opening minutes. Then after a rally to SPX 1921 just past 10am, the SPX hit 1909 by 11am. After that the market started to recover. At 12:30 the SPX hit 1925, dipped to 1914 by 1:30, then hit 1937 at 3pm. After a decline to SPX 1926, the market bounced to close at 1932.

For the day the SPX/DOW were -0.40%, and the NDX/NAZ were -0.35%. Bonds gained 3 ticks, Crude added 65 cents, Gold rallied $22, and the USD was lower. Medium term support remains at the 1929 and 1901 pivots, with resistance at the 1956 and 1973 pivots. Tomorrow: Q2 GDP (est. +3.6%) at 8:30, then Consumer sentiment at 10am.

The market gapped down at the open today for the second time this week. After hitting SPX 1914, the market bounced to 1921, before making the low for the day at 1909. After that the market recovered into the afternoon, nearly closing the opening gap from SPX 1939. We can now count three waves down from SPX 2021: 1953-1980-1909, with the fourth underway. Should the market continue its P2 analog SPX 1953 should be exceeded. Should the market be heading into the downtrend low, on a retest of SPX 1867, SPX 1953 should not be exceeded before making lower lows. Inflection point for the P2 analog scenario. Short term support is at the 1929 and 1901 pivots, with resistance at the 1956 and 1973 pivots. Short term momentum rose above neutral from quite oversold. Best to your Yellen/GDP trading!

MEDIUM TERM: downtrend

LONG TERM: bull market



About tony caldaro

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201 Responses to Thursday update

  1. ewmarkets says:

    (2) or (B) ended; (3) or (C) up. –one possibility.

  2. gtoptions says:

    Thanks Tony
    Weekend report should be interesting. Have a great weekend all.

  3. reddragonleo says:

    ES Futures Late Day Update September 25th, 2015 –

  4. Dex T says:

    Once again history proves to be reliable for this week being one of the most bearish weeks of the year since the S&P will close firmly in the red for the week .

    Next week is also historically one of the most bearish weeks of the year with the S&P declining an average of 1.13% between 2005 and 2014.

  5. This is just my read on the futures. Leading Diagonal (a) wave, with v longer than iii, iii longer than i, iv longer than ii, and iv overlapping i; followed by a “deep retrace” which is all or part of the the (b) wave .. currently back-testing support at the channel line.

    ESZ15 - ES futures - Sep-25 1355 PM (1 hour)

    No guarantees, but the (b) wave can go on for quite a while, if it wants to – even into Monday. I won’t know the (b) wave is over until / unless there is a new high above (a). I do expect the upward correction to take a while, and not have wrapped up, today. But, it’s a correction, so far. Any new lower low would void that view.

    • gtoptions says:

      Why are you now showing the ES chart? Below you used the SPX. SPX has a clear 5 wave pattern up from yesterday’s low. ES has three. Just wondering why, because that is more confusing to anyone following you. Nice work though. GL

      • ES has five waves in an expanding diagonal. If you are not familiar with the pattern, please refer to the EWP. I just slowed the ES because the channel stood out more prominently. Later, I will go back to the cash.

      • EL MATADOR says:

        My 2c
        SPX Chart

        ES Chart

        • gtoptions says:

          Thanks EL, the corrective 7 waves makes more sense now. Sometimes I forget the 5/7 impulse/corrective wave rule. I was counting it as 5, which I still made a nice SPY put trade after the 5/7th wave completed. Always learning and re-learning. Enjoy

          • EL MATADOR says:

            You welcome GTO. The most interesting and critical wave on the SPX is the contracting triangle wave 6. Why, well for 1) triangle are famous for occurring before the final leg up (in this case wave 7) and 2) per Glenn Neely page 5-27 the maximum thrust of a contracting triangle under normal circumstances will not exceed 125% of the widest segment (in this case wave c). The thrust was exactly 125% of wave c.

    • joe your wave count is wrong. dec es clearly shows and ABC up a ABC down I will post this my charts this weekend and you will see it too however I applaud you showing the es.
      I do not know a single trader that uses the cash to trade the futures contract. My studies confirm that more upside is in the cards for next week. will wait for confirmation.

  6. J.Wenger says:

    1953 eh? Nice call!

  7. Gary Lewis says:

    I’m watching for the potential closing battle at 192.59. We just tested it and held. Still an hour plus to go. I would normally buy if we are holding as I would expect a pop but I’m going to hold off as some of the experts are saying down for Monday and others are expecting much lower prices. So let’s see. This is how I gauge credibility of other posters. I make or not make my intended trades, sometimes allowing myself to be influenced by others. I shouldn’t but it helps to reinforce who is full of beans and who has good insight.

    Go Cubs.

  8. learnedmylesson25 says:

    Anyways…FRB not withstanding, a close in this area would another reversal day, but I ve been bearish anyways, so nothing new here.Would like GDX to pick up the slack.Good luck all (even FRB).

    • Hahahaha, you funny learnedyourlesson. I am so unworthy of your demonstrated obsession, might you consider a supermodel, celebrity or professional athlete instead? Sorry you missed the rally and resultant profits but don’t be too hard on yourself, hang in there and try to enjoy your weekend!

  9. manunidhi21 says:

    Tony & Lee..
    when did u taught BOTS pivot ping pong?
    i thought you guys like Cubs Blue Jays coming:)

  10. rc1269 says:

    public service announcement: rallies get sold in downtrends.

    enjoy your weekends everyone, esp maestro TC! cheers.

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