SHORT TERM: gap down opening, DOW -79
Overnight the Asian markets lost 1.2%. Europe opened lower and lost 1.9%. US index futures were lower overnight. At 8:30 weekly Jobless claims were reported higher: 267k v 264k, and Durable goods were reported lower: -2.0% v +2.2%. The market gapped down at the open to SPX 1926, and hit 1914 in the opening minutes. Then after a rally to SPX 1921 just past 10am, the SPX hit 1909 by 11am. After that the market started to recover. At 12:30 the SPX hit 1925, dipped to 1914 by 1:30, then hit 1937 at 3pm. After a decline to SPX 1926, the market bounced to close at 1932.
For the day the SPX/DOW were -0.40%, and the NDX/NAZ were -0.35%. Bonds gained 3 ticks, Crude added 65 cents, Gold rallied $22, and the USD was lower. Medium term support remains at the 1929 and 1901 pivots, with resistance at the 1956 and 1973 pivots. Tomorrow: Q2 GDP (est. +3.6%) at 8:30, then Consumer sentiment at 10am.
The market gapped down at the open today for the second time this week. After hitting SPX 1914, the market bounced to 1921, before making the low for the day at 1909. After that the market recovered into the afternoon, nearly closing the opening gap from SPX 1939. We can now count three waves down from SPX 2021: 1953-1980-1909, with the fourth underway. Should the market continue its P2 analog SPX 1953 should be exceeded. Should the market be heading into the downtrend low, on a retest of SPX 1867, SPX 1953 should not be exceeded before making lower lows. Inflection point for the P2 analog scenario. Short term support is at the 1929 and 1901 pivots, with resistance at the 1956 and 1973 pivots. Short term momentum rose above neutral from quite oversold. Best to your Yellen/GDP trading!
MEDIUM TERM: downtrend
LONG TERM: bull market