Tuesday update

SHORT TERM: gap down opening, DOW -180

Overnight the Asian markets lost 1.0%. Europe opened lower and lost 3.3%. US index futures were lower overnight, and at 9am the FHFA was reported higher: +0.6% v +0.2%. The market gapped down at the open to SPX 1945, and continued to 1940 in the opening minutes. The market had closed at SPX 1967 yesterday. After a bounce to SPX 1948 by 10am the market traded down to 1932 by 11am. Then after another bounce to SPX 1941 the market traded down to 1929 by 1:30. The market then rallied to SPX 1946 by 3:30 before closing at 1943.

For the day the SPX/DOW were -1.15%, and the NDX/NAZ were -1.45%. Bonds gained 20 ticks, Crude lost 75 cents, Gold lost $8, and the USD was higher. Medium term support drops to the 1929 and 1901 pivots, with resistance now at the 1956 and 1973 pivots.

The market gapped down at the open today, reversing yesterday’s gap up opening. After hitting SPX 1940, then 1932, and 1929, the market stabilized somewhat in the afternoon. The impulse scenario, of a declining five waves, from the recent SPX 2021 high continues to unfold. Thus far wave 1 (1953), wave 2 (1980), with wave 3 underway: 1956-1972-1929-1946. The next drop should complete wave 3. Then after a wave 4 rally, wave 5 should be underway potentially into the downtrend low. Short term support is at the 1929 and 1901 pivots with resistance at the 1956 and 1973 pivots. Short term momentum was quite oversold at the low and headed toward neutral into the close. Best to your trading!

MEDIUM TERM: downtrend

LONG TERM: bull market

CHARTS: http://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

About tony caldaro

This entry was posted in Updates and tagged , , , . Bookmark the permalink.

216 Responses to Tuesday update

  1. johnnymagicmoney says:

    VIX ready to pop
    Crude breaking down
    Bonds trending up
    Biotech and Financials already close to August lows already
    Indicies hanging on by a thread

  2. Gary Lewis says:

    Another triangle? Did no one see that coming? Especially the Triangle guy? 1929-1950-1932-1945-1937???

    • purplember says:

      are you thinking triangle to complete wv 4. then wv5 down below 1929 to complete minor 1 ???

      • Gary Lewis says:

        Sorry, my knowledge of EW is five waves up, three waves down. I leave all the technical stuff to the experts who are battling each other throughout the day here.

    • Agree. Cash SP-15 min (now, instead of 10 min) looks better as a triangular 4th wave. Doesn’t affect anything overall, but puts iii of 3 on the low of the EWO. Wave e of the triangle just crossed up over the EMA-34 on the last couple of candles. This count could allow for either a simple spike down tomorrow or a sub-divided wave, and might end, mid-channel. Only requirement – a lower low.

      SPX - Intraday - Sep-23 1504 PM (15 min)

      Remember, you can ‘guess at’ a triangle, in progress, but you can’t properly call it until all five-waves are completed. I’ve had them break in both directions, unexpectedly : part of the game.

Comments are closed.