SHORT TERM: rates stay unchanged, DOW -65
Overnight the Asian markets gained 0.6%. Europe opened higher but lost 0.2%. US index futures were lower overnight. At 8:30 weekly Jobless claims were reported lower: 264k v 275k, Housing starts were reported lower: 1126k v 1206k, and Building permits were reported higher: 1170k v 1119k. The market opened three points below yesterday’s SPX 1995 close, dipped to 1991, then began to rally. At 10am the Philly FED was reported lower: -6.0 v +8.3. The rally continued until 1:30 when the SPX hit 2104. Then the market drifted to SPX 2102 ahead the of the FED’s statement: http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/press/monetary/20150917a.htm, and projections: http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/press/monetary/20150917b.htm. After the announcement the market spiked to SPX 2108, then quickly dropped to 1988 within minutes. After that it started to move higher. Just before 3pm the market hit 2021, then quickly dropped to 1987 just past 3pm. Uncertainly still major factor in this market. Then after a bounce to SPX 2000, the market dropped to 1987 again before closing at 1990.
For the day the SPX/DOW were -0.30%, and the NDX/NAZ gained 0.05%. Bonds gained 32 ticks, Crude slipped 30 cents, Gold rallied $11, and the USD was lower. Medium term support remains at the 1973 and 1956 pivots, with resistance at the 2019 and 2070 pivots. Tomorrow: Leading indicators at 10am and it is Options expiration Friday.
The market opened slightly lower today, then rallied to SPX 2104 ahead of the FOMC statement. After the statement was released, and during FED chair Yellen’s press conference, the market became very volatile. A spike up to SPX 2108, down to 1988, up to 2021, then back down to 1987. One to 1.5% moves within minutes. While this market has advanced 150+ points from the SPX 1867 low, the rallies have appeared to be corrective. When we look at point reversals alone we can see three five wave rallies from the low, but they are all overlapping. Unless the market has set up a series of 1-2’s, which is doubtful, this also look corrective. Tomorrow into early next week should be key for this downtrend. Short term support remains at the 1973 and 1956 pivots, with resistance at the 2019 and 2070 pivots. Short term momentum hit extremely overbought then dropped below neutral. Best to your trading Options expiration Friday!
MEDIUM TERM: downtrend
LONG TERM: bull market