SHORT TERM: rally continues, DOW +140
Overnight the Asian markets gained 1.4%. Europe opened higher and gained 0.9%. US index futures were basically flat overnight, and at 8:30 the CPI was reported lower: -0.1% v +0.1%. The market opened three points above yesterday’s SPX 1978 close, ticked up to 1984, then pulled back to 1978 by 10am. At 10am the NAHB was reported higher: 62 v 61. The market then hit SPX 1984 again by 10:30, pulled back to 1979 by 11am, then rallied to 1994 by 2pm. After a pullback to SPX 1986 by 2:30 the market rallied to 1997 by 3:30, then dipped to close at 1995.
For the day the SPX/DOW were +0.85%, and the NDX/NAZ were +0.55%. Bonds lost 4 ticks, Crude rallied $2.55, Gold rose $14, and the USD was lower. Medium term support remains at the 1973 and 1956 pivots, with resistance at the 2019 and 2070 pivots. Tomorrow: weekly Jobless claims at 8:30, along with Housing starts and Building permits, the Philly FED at 10am, then the FOMC statement at 2pm.
The market opened higher today, hit SPX 1984, pulled back, then exceeded the late August 1993 high when reaching 1997 late in the day. Now all four major indices have exceeded that initial rebound high after the SPX 1867 low. Is a new uptrend underway, or is a retest of the lows next? Despite the early choppiness, if this rally can continue into next week, it will break the Primary II analog, supporting a potential new uptrend underway. FED statement tomorrow, Options expiration on Friday, and the 2019/1973 pivots overhead/below. Short term support is at the 1973 and 1956 pivots, with resistance at the 2019 and 2070 pivots. Short term momentum ended the day with a very slight negative divergence. Best to your trading FED day!
MEDIUM TERM: downtrend
LONG TERM: bull market