SHORT TERM: gap up turnaround Tuesday, DOW +229
Overnight the Asian markets lost 0.3%. Europe opened higher and gained 0.9%. US index futures were lower overnight. At 8:30 Retail sales were reported higher: +0.2% v +0.6%, the NY FED was reported lower: -14.7 v -14.9, then at 9:15 Industrial production was reported lower: -0.4% v +0.6%. The market gapped up at the open to SPX 1960. The market had closed at SPX 1953 yesterday. In the opening minutes the market pulled back to SPX 1954, to nearly close the gap, and then resumed the rally. Heading into the last hour of trading the SPX hit 1983. Then pulled back to close at 1978.
For the day the SPX/DOW were +1.35%, and the NDX/NAZ were +1.15%. Bonds lost 27 ticks, Crude gained 70 cents, Gold lost $3, and the USD was higher. Medium term support rises to the 1973 and 1956 pivots, with resistance at the 2019 and 2070 pivots. Tomorrow: the CPI at 8:30, NAHB at 10am, and the FED starts its two day meeting.
The market gapped up at the open, pulled back, then cleared the 1956 and 1973 pivot ranges on the way to SPX 1983. A nice rally today, but it looks similar to the three previous corrective rallies from the SPX 1867 low. One could draw a trend line from 1993-1989-1983, and from 1911-1939 to form a Minor B wave triangle. With short term momentum hitting extremely overbought today that upper trend line could be resistance. If not, SPX 1993 could be exceeded and the market would still likely be in Minor B. Short term support is now at the 1973 and 1956 pivots, with resistance at SPX 1993 and the 2019 pivot. Short term momentum hit extremely overbought. Best to your trading!
MEDIUM TERM: downtrend
LONG TERM: bull market