SHORT TERM: another gap down opening, DOW -358
Overnight the Asian markets lost 1.4%. Europe opened lower and lost 1.7%. US index futures were lower overnight, and at 8:30 weekly Jobless claims were reported higher: 277k v 274k. The market gapped down at the open to SPX 2063. It had closed at 2080 yesterday. In the opening minutes the SPX hit 2060, bounced to 2068, and then headed lower. At 10am Existing home sales were reported higher: 5.59mn v 5.49mn, the Philly FED was reported higher: 8.3 v 5.7, and Leading indicators were reported lower: -0.2% v +0.6%. At 10:30 the SPX hit 2052 and tried to rally. At 11am the rally topped at SPX 2060, then the market traded down to 2047 by 1pm. Then after a bounce to SPX 2054, the market hit 2036 in the last hour of trading and closed there.
For the day the SPX/DOW were -2.10%, and the NDX/NAZ were -2.80%. Bonds gained 8 ticks, Crude slipped 45 cents, Gold rallied $19, and the USD was lower. Medium term support drops to the 2019 and 1973 pivots, with resistance at the 2070 and 2085 pivots. Tomorrow: the volatility of, if it didn’t occur today, Options expiration.
The market gapped down at the open for the third day this week. At the open it took out this week’s low at SPX 2071 and continued lower. Then after bouncing around early it found support at the SPX 2052 level. That support level did not hold, after the bounce ended the market headed even lower. In the last hour of trading the SPX hit the long awaited lower 2040’s, and continued to 2036 where it closed. With lots of support in the SPX 2040’s being breached at the close, it appears the 2019 pivot range is next (2026-2012). This would support the Major wave 4 scenario posted over this past weekend. Should the market head to the 2019 pivot we can drop the Int. i scenario, leaving us with the Major 4 and Primary IV scenario’s at 50/50. Short term support is at the 2019 and 1973 pivots, with resistance at SPX 2052 and the 2070 pivot. Short term momentum is displaying the potential for a positive divergence, but needs a bounce first. Best to your Opex trading!
MEDIUM TERM: downtrend
LONG TERM: bull market