Friday update

SHORT TERM: market drifts higher, DOW +69

Overnight the Asian markets gained 0.5%. Europe opened higher but lost 0.4%. US index futures were lower overnight. At 8:30 the PPI was reported higher: +0.2% v +0.4%. Then at 9:15 Industrial production was reported higher: +0.6% v +0.2%, as was Capacity utilization: 78.0% v 77.8%. The market opened one point below yesterday’s SPX 2083 close, then bounced up to 2088 by 10am. At 10am Consumer sentiment was reported lower: 92.9 v 93.1. The market then pulled back to SPX 2081 by 11:30, and started to rally. The rally continued into the last hour of trading when the SPX hit 2092, where it closed.

For the day the SPX/DOW were +0.40%, and the NDX/NAZ were +0.25%. Bonds lost 4 ticks, Crude dipped 15 cents, Gold ended flat, and the USD was higher. Medium term support rises to the 2085 and 2070 pivots, with resistance at the 2131 and 2198 pivots. Today the WLEI was reported flat at 50.2%.

The market opened slightly lower today, bounced to SPX 2088, pulled back to 2081, then rallied to 2092 in the last hour of trading. The choppy rally from Wednesday’s SPX 2052 low appears to be still underway. A few ticks higher and the RSI could set up another short term negative divergence. For now the count remains the same: Minute C underway. Short term support is now at the 2085 anf 2070 pivots, with resistance at the SPX 2114 and the 2131 pivot. Short term momentum ended the week nearly overbought. Best to your weekend!

MEDIUM TERM: choppy uptrend continues

LONG TERM: bull market


About tony caldaro

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35 Responses to Friday update

  1. prakashbkc says:

    Tony sir,
    Nice weekened report, so according to this visit to 2040 is imminent so one can short here spx 500 for at least this target

  2. Mr C…is there any kind of + div on weekly gold…or not worth talking about? Thanks.

  3. Thanks TC! Ah, the weekend update; sometimes with coffee, mostly with a fine cognac, or two. Cheers!

    I have the following levels on Monday with the system biased to the Buy side at this point…
    Buy above 2104.57 with Stop 2083.02 Target 2178.91
    Sell below 2070.14 with Stop 2091.65 Target 1975.24

  4. ABchart says:

    I propose a small change on the count of the CAC to align with that of the DAX. Historically, the CAC and DAX have the same trajectory. You will ask me why the CAC is 60% less than the DAX? normal, CAC pays dividends, but the DAX reinvests them. We have a CAC Dividends reinvested called CAC GR and its price is 11000 as the DAX with the same movements.

    I suggest this:

    • tony caldaro says:

      The only different between the DAX and the CAC is that trend reversal in December.
      The CAC had it, the DAX did not.
      Can not count three waves up from October as a completed impulse wave. Nor can I count all the activity for the second half of 2014 as a corrected wave.
      If the CAC can make new highs, without the DAX doing so, then they would realign.

      • ABchart says:

        OK thank you! I believe that the DAX will make a truncated major 5 between 12000 and 12200 because the 12380 were made through a Bund 0.07% against 0.70% at the moment. The CAC should go higher close to 5500 before falling sharply. The magnitude of the next drop could be a primary IV for both. We will see.

  5. Yes thanks Mr C…just standing pat for now.Have a good weekend all.

  6. Lee X says:

    Thanks Tony

  7. sweinv says:

    What is your feeling for Dax accourding to the new count in Dow? Dax still in major 4?

  8. EL MATADOR says:

    Since there has been so much criticism lately, I though everyone might enjoy a little humor, so here it is

    Tony, thanks for putting up with all of us, have a wonder weekend all.

  9. gtoptions says:

    Thanks Tony
    Is the count posted on the DJI new?

  10. 56rambler says:

    Thanks, Mr Caldaro.

    Still 60/40 in favor of the subdividing major 5?


  11. Thanks TC. The Dowager did make a higher high before the close but the SPX not quite. I have the INDU & SPX starting 5 of the 3rd wave of C at the close and expecting 5 waves for C. Out of the gates it should be up on the Globex come Sunday. Interesting to see whether 2105.35 holds this move. Good weekend all.

    • Me, too. see last post on Thursday’s update. Nice when Elliott analysts agree!

      • Yep, saw it Joe. Thanks for the effort you put into your posts. Nothing half-hearted about your analysis, that’s for sure

        • Gary Lewis says:

          I think that he’s making it up as he goes along. He should just post links to his web site like others do instead of hijacking Tony’s efforts. Thought we had a three post per day rule. Try to respect the rules. Thanks

          • HW says:

            Totally agree. Looks like his posts contain some useful info, but when i see walls of text i just scroll down, feels like spam even if it probably isnt… just post link once a day should be sufficient.

          • Not your call. Tony attracts lots of very talented people and I very much appreciate all they offer. But when they do post something I’m not interested in, I simply skip over it.

      • blackjak100 says:

        If 2052 ended a leading expanding diagonal down, then a typical retrace is to the 78.6% retrace as a zigzag which is exactly what you are proposing. That target is 2101.

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