Wednesday update

SHORT TERM: wild Wednesday, DOW unchanged

Overnight the Asian markets lost 1.8%. Europe opened lower and lost 2.9%. US index futures were lower overnight, and the market gapped down at the open to SPX 2068. The market had closed at SPX 2084 yesterday. The market continued lower until around 10:30 when the SPX hit its low for the day at 2052. After that the SPX rallied to 2061 by 11:30, pulled back to 2055 by noon, and then closed the opening gap by 3pm. At 2pm the Budget deficit was reported in line with expectations: -$149.2bn v -$94.6bn. By 3:30 the SPX had hit 2089, then pulled back to close at 2086.

For the day the SPX/DOW were mixed, and the NDX/NAZ were +0.25%. Bonds lost 1 tick, Crude added 30 cents, Gold rallied $15, and the USD was lower. Medium term support rises at the 2085 and 2070 pivots, with resistance at the 2131 and 2198 pivots. Tomorrow: weekly Jobless claims at 8:30, along with Retail sales, Export/Import prices and Business inventories.

The market gapped down at the open for the second day in a row. Following the PBOC yuan depreciation for the second day in a row. After opening below the 2070 pivot the SPX declined until it nearly closed, within one point of, the July 10th gap up opening. After that the market rallied for the rest of the day, and in the last hour of trading closed today’s opening gap. Wild day. Nevertheless, no change on the count. A Minute a-b with c underway from SPX 2133, and a Micro a-b with c underway from SPX 2114. The market has been doing these sort of ramp ups/downs for some time. Short term support rises to the 2085 and 2070 pivots, with resistance at SPX 2114 and the 2131 pivot. Short term momentum spiked from quite oversold today to nearly overbought at the close. Best to your trading all that economic data tomorrow!

MEDIUM TERM: choppy uptrend continues

LONG TERM: bull market


About tony caldaro

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166 Responses to Wednesday update

  1. Here’s the lower low and downward overlap I was referring to earlier. Looks like the c wave of the correction is well underway.

    SPX - Five-Minute - Aug-13 1430 PM (5 min)

    The correction ‘should’ make a new low beneath the ‘a’ wave. Some say 1.62 or 2.62 x ‘a’, added to the circle-b wave in the downward direction are good targets.

    • wantforanail says:

      Joe, Why do you think your circle a “goes nowhere”? I’ve always felt that the area at the top of the previous III to the bottom of IV was a good target zone. I would label it I and II complete with a leading diagonal now complete in 1 of III, working on 2. It just seems cleaner….i feel irregular counts should be…well irregular. Just curious.

      • Please refer to the ‘exact’ measurements in the charts, below. I try to keep my personality and feelings out of Elliott Wave counts, and just measure them. Wave iii was 2.618 x i, wave v was 0.618 x (net i through iii). Furthermore, the count made a ‘prediction’. The prediction was that the point of downward overlap would ‘occur’, and it did. Again .. that’s what Elliott Wave is about .. counting to make predictions .. otherwise there is not much point to it other than pretty pictures.

        • wantforanail says:

          Thanks. I would add that the power of EWT lies in understanding where you are wrong, not just the direction of the next move. By knowing where you are wrong, you can define your risk and determine whether riding the next move is worth it. Ultimately, I think that is what all the pretty little numbers help one discern.

  2. Oil will fall to levels (< $20) most cannot comprehend (with occasional bounces) and result in many shrieking deflation. Unfortunately, following close behind will be hyperinflation of the USD. Prepare accordingly. 😉

    • john b says:

      newbie can you rather post links of these irritating stuff so we don’t have to constantly look at it, or post it somewhere else, im sure there is other sites that caters for kids

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