Thursday update

SHORT TERM: pullback resumes, DOW -121

Overnight the Asian markets lost 0.1%. Europe opened lower and lost 0.2%. US index futures were relatively flat overnight, and at 8:30 weekly Jobless claims were reported higher: 270k v 267k. The market opened three points above yesterday’s SPX 2100 close, then immediately started to pullback. At 10am the SPX hit 2090, bounced to 2095 just past 10am, then headed lower. At 12:30 the SPX hit 2076, and then tried to rally. Heading into the close the SPX hit 2086, then closed at 2084.

For the day the SPX/DOW were -0.70%, and the NDX/NAZ were -1.60%. Bonds gained 11 ticks, Crude slid 40 cents, Gold rose $5, and the USD was lower. Medium term support drops to the 2070 and 2019 pivots, with resistance at the 2085 and 2131 pivots. Tomorrow: monthly Payrolls (est. +232k) at 8:30, then Consumer credit at 3pm.

The market opened slightly higher today, then pulled back to the lower SPX 2090’s, bounced around, and then headed to the lowest level for the week at 2076. After that the market rebounded into the SPX mid-2080’s area in the afternoon. We now have three waves down from the Minute wave B high at SPX 2114: 2087-2113-2076 so far. A further decline to SPX 2045 would set up the Minute C = Minute A relationship we have been tracking. Short term support is now at the 2070 pivot and SPX 2045, with resistance at the 2085 pivot and SPX 2114. Short term momentum was quite oversold at the low and then bounced. Best to your NFP trading tomorrow!

MEDIUM TERM: choppy uptrend weakening again

LONG TERM: bull market


About tony caldaro

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160 Responses to Thursday update

  1. kvilia says:

    Did not pull the trigger today. Have a good weekend.

  2. NEWBIE says:

    Just a few more points higher for wave 2 and then wave 3 down will take us to 2020 early next week.

  3. nardobeme says:

    Conceded that the 2070 pivot was to hold today, and went long. Good reading on some +div … Also, many speculate that the VIX will be in the single digits soon. Page- do you have any upcoming price targets? Thanks. NW all.

  4. Gartman rally straight ahead…Have a good weekend all.

  5. fotis2 says:

    Ok not very good at waves but 30min looks like a decent 5 waves down complete today from 2112 to 2068.

  6. H D says:

    8 months is an eternity for a potential flat, 21,234 DJI interesting price if the pattern confirms.

  7. EL MATADOR says:

    well, folks some of the big boys are stepping up to load up on some of the cheap beat down….AXP just popped magically on ValueAct’s $1B stake in AXP.

  8. fishonhook says:

    Having got out of my shorts too soon. I put some small ones on a few minutes ago on the rebound. See what happens

  9. fotis2 says:

    Witness how the pivots worked by the book today nice one Tony.

  10. zepfan123 says:

    Broad market Key indexes COMP,TRANS and RUT all down big and near their lows of the day. With the SPX sitting right on the key support level of 2070 we’ve got an interesting situation here.- Whether we get some kind of Friday “end of day” rally today or not…i say we will work lower next week. Of course SPX 2040 the obvious first target..but it’s being talked about by almost every analyst out there so I’d think we blow down through 2040 like hot butter this time if we get down there.
    But for today anyway, with only 90 minutes trading left….SPX 2070 is the focus for probably most of the traders in the world playing the U.S. markets.

  11. H D says:

    r the shorts gonna cover or what? Friday 2070P

    My take away from the debate. Governors eager to boast about their economic progress and job growth and 10 seconds later slam America for poor economic progress and job growth. Awesome.

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