SHORT TERM: pullback continues, DOW -48
Overnight the Asian markets lost 0.1%. Europe opened lower and finished mixed. US index futures were higher overnight, and the market opened at SPX 2101. Right after the open, however, the market started to pullback in what would end up as a choppy day. In the opening minutes the SPX hit 2095, then tried to rally. At 10am Factory orders were reported higher: +1.8% v -1.0%. By 10:30 the SPX had hit 2103, the high for the day. By 11am the SPX was trading at 2094. Then after a bounce to SPX 2099 by noon, a pullback back to 2094 by 1pm, and a bounce back to 2099 by 1:30, the market headed lower. Just past 2pm the SPX hit 2089 and tried to rally again. This rally carried to SPX 2096 by 3pm, then a pullback into the close ended the day at 2093.
For the day the SPX/DOW were -0.25%, and the NDX/NAZ were -0.25%. Bonds lost 22 ticks, Crude gained 65 cents, Gold added $2, and the USD was higher. Medium term support remains at the 2085 and 2070 pivots, with resistance at the 2131 and 2198 pivots. Tomorrow: the ADP and Trade deficit around 8:30, then ISM services at 10am.
The market opened slightly higher today, traded above SPX 2100 again, then dropped below it after the first hour, or so, of trading. Today’s choppy activity traded within yesterday’s SPX 2087-2106 range. However, we did observe another notable reversal in the waves. From the recent high at SPX 2033, which was a three wave rally, we now have we three waves down to 2064, three up to 2114, and now what appears to be three waves heading lower: 2087-2103-2089 so far. If we count SPX 2064 as Minute a, and SPX 2114 as Minute b, then Minute c will equal a at exactly 2045. Right back down to where the recent uptrend to SPX 2133 began. Short term support remains at the 2085 and 2070 pivots, with resistance at SPX 2114 and the 2131 pivot. Short term momentum spent most the day just under neutral. Best to your trading!
MEDIUM TERM: uptrend weakening
LONG TERM: bull market