Tuesday update

SHORT TERM: pullback continues, DOW -48

Overnight the Asian markets lost 0.1%. Europe opened lower and finished mixed. US index futures were higher overnight, and the market opened at SPX 2101. Right after the open, however, the market started to pullback in what would end up as a choppy day. In the opening minutes the SPX hit 2095, then tried to rally. At 10am Factory orders were reported higher: +1.8% v -1.0%. By 10:30 the SPX had hit 2103, the high for the day. By 11am the SPX was trading at 2094. Then after a bounce to SPX 2099 by noon, a pullback back to 2094 by 1pm, and a bounce back to 2099 by 1:30, the market headed lower. Just past 2pm the SPX hit 2089 and tried to rally again. This rally carried to SPX 2096 by 3pm, then a pullback into the close ended the day at 2093.

For the day the SPX/DOW were -0.25%, and the NDX/NAZ were -0.25%. Bonds lost 22 ticks, Crude gained 65 cents, Gold added $2, and the USD was higher. Medium term support remains at the 2085 and 2070 pivots, with resistance at the 2131 and 2198 pivots. Tomorrow: the ADP and Trade deficit around 8:30, then ISM services at 10am.

The market opened slightly higher today, traded above SPX 2100 again, then dropped below it after the first hour, or so, of trading. Today’s choppy activity traded within yesterday’s SPX 2087-2106 range. However, we did observe another notable reversal in the waves. From the recent high at SPX 2033, which was a three wave rally, we now have we three waves down to 2064, three up to 2114, and now what appears to be three waves heading lower: 2087-2103-2089 so far. If we count SPX 2064 as Minute a, and SPX 2114 as Minute b, then Minute c will equal a at exactly 2045. Right back down to where the recent uptrend to SPX 2133 began. Short term support remains at the 2085 and 2070 pivots, with resistance at SPX 2114 and the 2131 pivot. Short term momentum spent most the day just under neutral. Best to your trading!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend weakening

LONG TERM: bull market

CHARTS: http://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

About tony caldaro

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176 Responses to Tuesday update

  1. blubrd67 says:

    Tony, Do you have any quick update on OIL, to where it might pause, or bounce? Or land for good 🙂

  2. zepfan123 says:

    Well with a close at SPX 2099 there is nothing definitive to be determined yet..but with the S&P futures up over 18 pts on the open they sure pee’d in the bulls cheerios today. Lots of opposing forces here it looks like. I think the Dow and S&p is going to stay sluggish for a while. The Nasdaq/Comp and Transports will have to do a lot of the heavy lifting here I think to keep the broad market from. If we lose the uplift of those 2 indexes…then I think we get that break down below SPX 2040 soon enough. Both gave back the lions share of their early gains. Still a big puzzle here though as far as the eventual timing of a true breakout. Hope it’s sooner than later.

    • zepfan123 says:

      That should have read….”The Nasdaq/Comp and Transports will have to do a lot of the heavy lifting here I think to keep the broad market from breaking down”.- The performance of DJIA has been getting weaker and weaker and I doubt that ship gets turned around real quick. The majority of it’s 30 stocks are not all that in demand in these times. AAPL of course could be the exception but of course has been weak itself lately.- But too much stuff like MCD and CAT in there in these popular NFLX times.

  3. uncle10 says:

    sorry one last post 😉 did ya’ll see the code on vix they sent out today? hehehe

  4. mjtplayer says:

    The bulls are desperately trying to hold SPX 2,100 and a positive DOW for the close.

  5. If it is of interest to anyone, we have a small impulse down off o the AM high on the spx 10 min charts and now what appears to be two waves up. If we get another small pop up it might be a good short.

  6. fotis2 says:

    How ungentlemanly I would think at least close gap maybe just now…at times I feel like an ostrich and just want to bury my head.

    • GYN LAB says:

      Did you short at 2097? 😉

      • fotis2 says:

        No 2101 30min breakout system trade.Think it may retest 2096 at least close in profit but was kinda hoping for gap sticking to day trading Gyn don’t have the required discipline for swing trades find myself glued to the sreen 24/7.

  7. blackjak100 says:

    Still confused on the 2011 comparison when the market has never traded in this tight of range for so long EVER. IMO, we have no comparison to go off. The only thing a person may be able to derive is a HUGE move is likely coming because of bollinger band compression.

    • Agreed…that It’s not exactly apple’s to apple’s. The market structure/internals and technicals right now are a lot like July 2011 & July 1998, and you could force a count that says we are in P4 right now, similar to P2 in 2011.

      Maybe my individual opinion is skewed by the 17 year cycle from 1981/1998 & 2011 that brought up 20% drops…and looking for it to repeat again in 2015….but the structure is there for a quick fast 15-20% dip.

      Ofcourse everything will be clear after the fact and price has painted the charts…but something I am keeping a close eye on.

      History doesn’t repeat but it does rhyme…! So we’ll see

    • C_H_M says:

      John Bollinger
      ALERT: On the weekly S&P 500 chart BandWidth, the Bollinger Band width indicator, is the lowest it has been since the winter of ’93.

    • EL MATADOR says:

      The comparative doesn’t have to agree with in price range in percentage, it can be about price in points and/or in time and one should not deny the fact that it very in sync with price (in points) and time range. I see a whole range of other similarities. But each to his own.

      EL MATADOR (@LoLo_MATADOR) says:
      July 30, 2015 at 2:58 pm
      LOL…nice one GTO…..
      FYI – Here is a little more 2011 vs 2015 factuals

      LS-to-RS 139 calendar days (2/18/2011 to 7/7/2011)
      LS-to-Last Chance rebound High 153 calendar days (2/18/2011 to 7/21/2011)

      Outter LS-to-RS 145 calendar days (2/25/2015 to 7/20/2015)
      Outter LS-to-Last Chance rebound High 154 calendar days (2/25/2015 to 7/29/2015)

      Candle of Thursday July 22, 2011 vs Thursday July 30, 2015
      a hammer that failed to take out prior days candle high.

  8. uncle10 says:

    be nice to hold this area if you trading bullish.
    Lee had it right, a long time ago, when he said this market always lets you out.
    over my limit sorry. good day all. 🙂

  9. stephenk1980 says:

    There is one last long left in the DJIA if you look hard enough. Or desperate enough. Depends on your point of view 😉

    • It is obvious that he has been doing too many whipits.

    • Dex T says:

      Birinyi is a permabull. Back in 2008-2009 he was consistently saying that every market drop was a great buying opportunity as the market went lower and lower!

      My father was a big fan of his since we live close by and would always send me his articles until I started showing him his awful market calls and he lost all interest! His “analysis” is pure cherrypicked data that doesn’t make any sense

      Here is an article from ZeroHedge stating than Birinyi thought the S&P would be 2854 on Sept 4, 2013. How he came up with this number or date is not explained and the explanation given is nonsensical.


      Unfortunately the Federal Reserve has kept people like this in action for the past few years.

  10. nardobeme says:

    Today’s price action is/was nothing more than a short lived “burst” imo. Remaining short $SPX until end of week. Target is either 2070 or 2050 area depending on the “fear” factor and supply/demand. Took some puts in $EXPE, as it’s very over extended (overcooked turkey). GL all.

  11. zepfan123 says:

    DJIA red and SPX back below 2100. Talk about finding nothing but a lump of coal in your in your beautifully wrapped Christmas present this morning.- Can’t wait to see how we close today…and open tomorrow. Obviously the odds of making new ATH”s on the SPX soon just went down.

  12. john b says:

    always a point or 3 out but the market is running smoothly,all within Tony,s parameters. Alotta fun while we wait for it to start trending in the bigger timeframes

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