Friday update

SHORT TERM: higher open then pullback, DOW -56

Overnight the Asian markets gained 0.7%. Europe opened higher and gained 0.5%. US index futures were lower overnight, but turned higher after the ECI was reported lower than expected. The market opened three points above yesterday’s SPX 2109 close, hit SPX 2114, then pulled back to 2106 all in the opening minutes. Then it started to drift higher. At 12:30 the SPX hit 2114 again, and started to pullback. Heading into the close the SPX hit 2102, then ended the week at 2104.

For the day the SPX/DOW were -0.25%, and the NDX/NAZ were -0.10%. Bonds gained 23 ticks, Crude lost $1.60, Gold added $7, and the USD was lower. Medium term support remains at the 2085 and 2070 pivots, with resistance at the 2131 and 2198 pivots. Today the WLEI was reported lower: 50.2% v 50.3%.

The market opened higher today, after the USD sold off and Bonds/Equities/Gold rallied following the ECI report before the open. After hitting SPX 2114 in the opening minutes, the market pulled back to 2106, then hit 2114 again in early afternoon before pulling back further heading into the close. A second choppy day during what appears to be continuing corrective market activity. More on this in the weekend update. Short term support is now at SPX 2095 and the 2085 pivot, with resistance at SPX 2114 and the 2131 pivot. Short term momentum displayed a negative divergence today before the market pulled back in the afternoon. Best to your weekend!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend remains above SPX 2100

LONG TERM: bull market


About tony caldaro

This entry was posted in Updates and tagged , , , . Bookmark the permalink.

54 Responses to Friday update

  1. Alert for a possible double bottom on the DOW JONES.
    graphic on the link below

  2. filipozze says:

    in my opinion we are facing a diagonal, this could be the third wave of and ending diagonal. so the upside should be capped by 2.200. but still an uptrend, Europe must complete the pattern with new highs then a reversal is due. In stocks market fifth wave is the weaker cause market is driving by hopes, in commodities fifth wave are the strongest cause market is driving by geopolitcal situation. So OIl could fall very sharply after a retracement. Now we can have a retracement after new low in OIl: this can support S&P and DOW forming new highs. But when Oil will fall sharply again for intermeditate 3 of 5 Primary wave 4 in S&P500 will be underway.

  3. Stayed above the 50d which leaves Monday open for an up day for a short term top.Possibly Tuesday but I m saying that ll do it.Personally I wonder why everyone is bearish (CNN greed/fear index for example).Thats pretty puzzling.I think the whole year will be basically flat or down slightly but to be bearish at this point in time is interesting.Good luck all.

    • EL MATADOR says:

      Who cares about CNN Greed/Fear it does not measure sentiment. Could one of the CNN Greed/Fear believer please enlighten me how the 7 indicator it feeds from measure greed/fear sentiment. Seriously because not one of you would have been able to pinpoint swing top trend reversal using it this pathetic indicator. Not to mention that bottom swing reversals have happen at varying inconsistent low reading ranging from 3 to 20. This indicator is a COMPLETE JOKE!!!!!

  4. nardobeme says:

    Thanks Tony. Looking forward to your report tomorrow. Am bullish into next week. I’m done with ER play. Made some ok profit. $FB and TWTR burned me pretty bad. I’m also long China, as I project a nice rally in the works.

  5. lolomatador says:

    Bull vs Bear Sentiment Survey:

    Say Yea if bullish = 99.9%

    Say Nay if Bearish = Three Amigos + El Guapo

    • pooch77 says:

      CNN fear greed has market in extreme fear,not anywhere near bullish

      • torehund says: an extreme, bullish is meeting bearish, or the other way around, its Zero gravity, leveled out… Like extreme pain converge to extreme pleasure.

      • lolomatador says:

        CNN fear/greed indicator is garbage and it does not measure sentiment. If you believe it them please enlighten me how the 7 indicator it feeds from measure sentiment. Also don’t need that junk to pinpoint trend reversals heck you could even have pick a swing top lately using it

    • Add me to that list. We could still make new highs. But I’m in the camp with these guys. Puerto Rico is going to default Saturday. Greece just kicked the can down the road. Dollar will rise 10 percent oil to 30. I could go on but hy bother. Pug has an interesting count. Regardless I’m in the camp we see 1820 minimum in the next 6 weeks

  6. torehund says:

    Thanks Tony and all on board.
    Well the doctors in promise of infertility have done well, rumors of 10 000 Usd of tax credit for voluntary infertility surgery 2009 onwards granted by the Obama administration🙂
    But nature is smart, it creates optimism out of nowhere, lures us to breed into prosperous times, then when hard times appear it makes us wonder why the heck we took on responsibilities for propagating yet another generation. Have we already endured a depression or can the collective mood get any worse ? Will nature once again provide for a boom, just wondering…no magic yet.

  7. stephenk1980 says:

    Still very bullish short term (i.e. days). Loaded up at the close.

    Expect either rate rise in Sep, or Fed to indicate in Sep that they’ll be raising in the Oct meeting. Language change was key and Bloomberg is being very quiet about the possibility – both increase the odds in my mind. Also the odds of a nasty fall beforehand IMO.

    August looks like it will be fun and hopefully very profitable too.

  8. gtoptions says:

    Did someone have the SPX labeled as an Expanding Diagonal? I think maybe Blackjak100 or someone else had this posted before. I would like to give credit where credit is due.
    Anyway, here’s that scenario if it works out, with the ‘e’ wave targeting 2150ish.
    Have Fun.😉

    • lolomatador says:

      tony caldaro says:
      July 29, 2015 at 5:04 pm
      The problem with running a triangle from February is that no trend ended in February.
      From the February downtrend low there was one uptrend into May, a downtrend into July, and now a new uptrend. Anything else would be a forced count.

    • stephenk1980 says:

      Roughly in the ball park of my target too, although mine has nothing to do with triangles. Expecting top out 2150 to 2190.

    • uncle10 says:

      nice chart gto. Thanks. I can see that happening. If it gets up near 2150, I may join newbie in UVXY. haha

  9. Why on earth would they raise rates if they dont have to??? There is absolutely no reason for them to do such a thing if not contraint.

    The real question is : what is it that needs to happen for them to be forced to raise rates?

    I can see only one thing – a serious sell off in bonds. The long end. That would make them raise rates, they would have no other option to stop the slide, as their funding would get more and more expensive.

    My 2c.

    • Page says:

      Fed does NOT want to raise rate, Banks are lobbying hard for rate increase, they have a lot of people making noise for rate increase for them. Even though Fed is under heavy pressure for increase BUT grandma Yellen will never come under their pressure SO NO RATE INCREASE this year.

  10. camper1888 says:

    choppy market continue for next month,snp2130 to snp 2150

      • zepfan123 says:

        Not a bad guesstimate range for the next month. I too think SPX 2130 remains the ATH closing high for a while…but we’ll have see how August ends up starting off it’s first 2 or 3 trading days before getting too confident about that since we did stay above SPX 2100 going into the weekend.

  11. NEWBIE says:

    Willie says it Best:

    Fed Cant Raise Rates- Here’s Why:

    1) It would ruin their own balance sheet of $4.5 Trillion/ most of it sitting in treasury bonds

    2) Ruin street Portfolios – wall street portfolios loaded with bond carry trade ( borrowed money at 0 percent that is invested in 10 and 30 year bonds and loading on leverage with futures contracts)

    3) No buyers for Treasury Bonds, no demand and huge supply.

    If the Fed raise rates the system collapses.

    Anybody have any thoughts on this.

    • mjtplayer says:

      Pension funds carry roughly 65% – 75% in fixed income investments, most by mandate. They are receiving little or no interest on these investments, thanks to 7 years of ZIRP, quickly making them insolvent. The Fed knows this.

      Pension funds have been underfunded for years, broke cities/states don’t have the money to fully fund them. Now they’re getting screwed by the Fed with ZIRP, just as the baby boomers are retiring and drawing on these funds.

      Pensions – the next major crisis at the local, city and state level.

      • bhuggs52 says:

        Agree with you MJT, with muni and state debt and pension obligations the first crumbling edge of the looming sovereign debt crisis that will ultimately engulf Uncle Sam as well.

    • jwmcbride says:

      just does not work that way. The market raises rates the fed just follows.

  12. Page says:

    Thanks Tony. Have great weekend.

  13. zepfan123 says:

    Thanks again Tony your insightful market views…as well as providing us readers a forum to voice our thoughts and opinions on the market too. Much appreciated.

  14. A flustering day caused but this local a b c , as I see it now and didn’t expected so soon and so sharp. But, never the less we had 5 small waves up and should have think about. It is possible, if the 1-2 , i II and now iii will confirm the local c waves should have resolved right here. If this will be the case all of this uncertainty could be due of the fact the 5th wave of 3 will be an ending diagonal, not so simple to trade. Hope so, since normally are never ending and at the beginning there will be enough for bulls and forgiveness for bear, if they want to see it ……Market refusing to let go over and over again.Knock, knock, knock to the haven door !!

  15. gtoptions says:

    Thanks Tony
    Bearish Hammer was cancelled out with today’s HH/HL. A break below 2064 would kill my Bullishness. Good Weekend All.

  16. Peter Sliney says:

    Thanks Tony! $TRAN looks really strong. I think in general this is no time to be attached to a direction.

  17. asaraniti says:

    question for TC and all

    For “argument sake” what if the rally off Mondays low at SPX 2,063 was minute 1 of minor 3 (instead of minor b), would the pullback for minute 2 be 50% – 61.% of minute 1?

  18. fotis2 says:

    Thanks Tony.

Comments are closed.