SHORT TERM: gap down opening but rebound, DOW -5
Overnight the Asian markets gained 0.4%. Europe opened higher and gained 0.5%. US index futures were lower overnight. At 8:30 Q2 GDP was reported higher:+2.3% v -0.2%, and weekly Jobless claims were higher: 267k v 255k. The market gapped down at the open to SPX 2104, and continued down to the low for the day at SPX 2095 by 10am. After that the market rallied to SPX 2103 by 10:30, dipped to 2097 by 11am, and then rallied to close the gap in the afternoon. Heading into the close the SPX hit 2110, then dipped to end the day unchanged at 2109.
For the day the SPX/DOW were mixed, and the NDX/NAZ were +0.35%. Bonds gained 1 tick, Crude lost 30 cents, Gold dropped $9, and the USD was higher. Medium term support remains at the 2085 and 2070 pivots, with resistance at the 2131 and 2198 pivots. Tomorrow: the Chicago PMI and Consumer sentiment around 10am.
The market gapped down at the open today, second time this week, dropped to SPX 2095, then reversed and closed the gap. Today’s decline was the first notable reversal since the rally began on Monday from SPX 2064: 2111-2095-2110. Not much to go on there so far. Yesterday’s short term negative divergence worked out fine. Yet if the market can make it back to SPX 2111 the RSI could set up even a larger divergence. Only one of the three levels noted over the weekend (2074, 2044, and 1981) have been broken this week. So probabilities for a Primary IV decline remain at 50/50. Short term support is now at SPX 2095 and the 2085 pivot, with resistance at SPX 2111 and the 2131 pivot. Short term momentum ended the day just below overbought. Best to your trading!
MEDIUM TERM: uptrend holding above SPX 2100
LONG TERM: bull market