Wednesday update

SHORT TERM: rally continues, DOW +121

Overnight the Asian markets gained 0.3%. Europe opened higher and gained 0.8%. US index futures were higher overnight, and the market opened three points above yesterday’s SPX 2093 close. After a dip to SPX 2094, in the opening minutes, the market started to move higher. At 10am Pending home sales were reported lower: -1.8% v +0.9%. The market continued to rally until it hit SPX 2106 by 11:30. Then it drifted down to SPX 2102 just before the FED released their FOMC statement at 2pm: http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/press/monetary/20150729a.htm. Right after the statement the market popped to SPX 2108, dropped to 2099, and then resumed its rally. At 3pm the SPX hit 2111, then bounced around to close at 2109.

For the day the SPX/DOW were +0.70%, and the NDX/NAZ were +0.45%. Bonds lost 8 ticks, Crude gained 85 cents, Gold added $2, and the USD was higher. Medium term support remains at the 2085 and 2070 pivots, with resistance at the 2131 and 2198 pivots. Tomorrow: Q2 GDP (est. +1.9%) and weekly Jobless claims at 8:30.

The market opened three points higher today, dipped, rallied to SPX 2108, dropped to 2099, and then hit 2111. Nice rally off the recent SPX 2064 low, for day traders, as the market has now retraced a bit more than 61.8% of that decline. While the recent decline was clearly three waves, and that rally before that, this rally has not displayed any quant reversals. On a real small scale, which is not dependable, it looks like five waves: 2078-2069-2108-2099-2111. Since there have not been any quant subdivisions we will assume, for now, that it’s just another corrective rally. Short term support remains at the 2085 and 2070 pivots, with resistance at the 2131 and 2198 pivots. Short term momentum displays a potential negative divergence at today’s high. Best to your Q2 GDP trading!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend back over SPX 2100

LONG TERM: bull market

CHARTS: http://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

About tony caldaro

Investor
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129 Responses to Wednesday update

    • fishonhook says:

      took a small short in the RUT.
      Bears beware!

      Like

    • gtoptions says:

      Don’t bother the Bulls. We’re concentrating on making money. LOL

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      • LOL…nice one GTO…..

        FYI – Here is a little more 2011 vs 2015 factuals

        2011:
        LS-to-RS 139 calendar days (2/18/2011 to 7/7/2011)
        LS-to-Last Chance rebound High 153 calendar days (2/18/2011 to 7/21/2011)

        2015
        Outter LS-to-RS 145 calendar days (2/25/2015 to 7/20/2015)
        Outter LS-to-Last Chance rebound High 154 calendar days (2/25/2015 to 7/29/2015)

        Candle of Thursday July 22, 2011 vs Thursday July 30, 2015
        a hammer that failed to take out prior days candle high.

        Very interesting stuff, no?

        Like

        • gtoptions says:

          Nice work.
          Agree, possible tweezer reversal candlestick pattern. Let’s see how it works out. I’m ready to ride it either direction. GL

          Like

  1. zepfan123 says:

    Talk about your dead in the water-bait & switch day.

    Like

  2. camper1888 says:

    I got this all figure out… Yep..

    Like

  3. Page says:

    Tony,
    What is the extreme oversold RSI(5) number please?

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  4. gtoptions says:

    Thanks Tony
    SPY ~ Bounced @ WPP ~ Next? WR1 @ 211.72
    No -/div, yet, but should produce one at the next high.

    SPX ~ H&S Busted IMO. Right shoulder has moved above the two left swing highs.
    Observe the weekly long tailed doji’s (plural), May & July. They rule as bullish until they are broken. Just an observation. GL All

    https://www.tradingview.com/x/09YmjEs0/

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  5. FWIW. Since the (below 1300) bottom in May/June, the market has travelled an up-incline in a range that can be divided into four quadrants. Since October 2013 it has travelled primarily in the uppermost quadrant, with brief excursions into the quadrant below. It last hit the top of the entire range toward the end of last year and since then seems to have been doing a correction (sideways) in time, bringing into the quadrant below, with two exact hits (bounces) off the bottom of this second quadrant. This is also the increasing line defining the midpoint of the range.

    If you take a simple picture at face value, and the bounces and sideways correction are meaningful, it seems the market has said that the previous trajectory up was too taxing, and it had to take a rest before starting on the less taxing trajectory. If this is true then it seems to want to go up more. Time will tell.

    🙂

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  6. mjtplayer says:

    VIX, DOW & Nasdaq have closed their respective open gaps from this a.m., but not the SPX. Would like to see that happen before reversing lower…

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  7. torehund says:

    http://www.emsc-csem.org/#5

    heavy quake activity, where the turmoil is the greatest.

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  8. Interesting Juncture. End of month. Could be up big today, with short covering. Always a bull path rarely a bear path.

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