SHORT TERM: rally continues, DOW +121
Overnight the Asian markets gained 0.3%. Europe opened higher and gained 0.8%. US index futures were higher overnight, and the market opened three points above yesterday’s SPX 2093 close. After a dip to SPX 2094, in the opening minutes, the market started to move higher. At 10am Pending home sales were reported lower: -1.8% v +0.9%. The market continued to rally until it hit SPX 2106 by 11:30. Then it drifted down to SPX 2102 just before the FED released their FOMC statement at 2pm: http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/press/monetary/20150729a.htm. Right after the statement the market popped to SPX 2108, dropped to 2099, and then resumed its rally. At 3pm the SPX hit 2111, then bounced around to close at 2109.
For the day the SPX/DOW were +0.70%, and the NDX/NAZ were +0.45%. Bonds lost 8 ticks, Crude gained 85 cents, Gold added $2, and the USD was higher. Medium term support remains at the 2085 and 2070 pivots, with resistance at the 2131 and 2198 pivots. Tomorrow: Q2 GDP (est. +1.9%) and weekly Jobless claims at 8:30.
The market opened three points higher today, dipped, rallied to SPX 2108, dropped to 2099, and then hit 2111. Nice rally off the recent SPX 2064 low, for day traders, as the market has now retraced a bit more than 61.8% of that decline. While the recent decline was clearly three waves, and that rally before that, this rally has not displayed any quant reversals. On a real small scale, which is not dependable, it looks like five waves: 2078-2069-2108-2099-2111. Since there have not been any quant subdivisions we will assume, for now, that it’s just another corrective rally. Short term support remains at the 2085 and 2070 pivots, with resistance at the 2131 and 2198 pivots. Short term momentum displays a potential negative divergence at today’s high. Best to your Q2 GDP trading!
MEDIUM TERM: uptrend back over SPX 2100
LONG TERM: bull market