Tuesday update

SHORT TERM: another turnaround Tuesday, DOW +190

Overnight the Asian markets gained 0.1%. Europe opened higher and gained 0.9%. US index futures were higher overnight, and at 9am Case-Shiller was reported flat: +4.9% v +4.9%. The market gapped up at the open to SPX 2078, but immediately began to pullback. At 10am Consumer confidence was reported lower: 90.9 v 101.4. Does anyone think consumer confidence dropped 10% in one month? At 10:30 the market hit SPX 2068 and then began to rally. With only 2 point pullbacks along the way, the SPX reached 2096 by 2:30. Then a dip into the close ended the day at SPX 2093.

For the day the SPX/DOW were +1.15%, and the NDX/NAZ were +0.95%. Bonds lost 7 ticks, Crude gained 30 cents, Gold added $1, and the USD was higher. Medium term support jumps to the 2085 and 2070 pivots, with resistance now at the 2131 and 2198 pivots. Tomorrow: Pending home sales at 10am, then the FOMC meeting concludes with a statement at 2pm.

The market gapped up at the open today, nearly retraced the entire gap, then rallied through the 2070 and 2085 pivots by the afternoon. After eight straight up days from the July low, the market dropped for five straight days. Today it reversed that decline by taking out yesterday’s SPX 2076 high at the open. We continue to count the 8 day rally(2045-2133) as a corrective three waves. And, the 5 day 69 point decline (2133-2064) was also three waves: 2110-2119-2064. Corrective activity continues. Two possible resistance levels for the current rally are (SPX 2099) 50% and (SPX 2107) 62% retracements. After that comes the 2131 pivot yet again. Short term support rises to the 2085 and 2070 pivots, with resistance at SPX 2099, SPX 2107 and the 2131 pivot. Short term momentum hit extremely overbought today. Best to your trading!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend under pressure

LONG TERM: bull market

CHARTS: http://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

About tony caldaro

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157 Responses to Tuesday update

  1. gtoptions says:

    Thanks Tony
    5 waves is all it takes to kickstart the uptrend. 😉
    We’ll see, I just can’t shake the Bull until the SPX 2040 gets taken out.

  2. zepfan123 says:

    Looks like Whole Foods and Wynn have big earnings misses. Mmmmmmmmmmmmmmm!

  3. zepfan123 says:

    FB beat expectations but is down about $4 in AH. So far anyway. Lots of folks thought it might pull an AMZN and go up 20% on the report and bought very expensiveweekly FB calls.. Ya never know.

  4. close at the high of the days and let face book earnings jack it up again tomorrow. New highs. all is good in the world I guess

  5. wavediver says:

    Are you counting 2108->2000 as wave 4 and 2000->2011 as wave 5?

  6. GYN LAB says:

    High at 2111 just now – if b ends here, then c=a points to 2042, inch perfect flat and also bang on the .618 of 1981-2135 diagonal. Or is this just a wishful thinking…

  7. jobjas says:

    wave 4 completes 2104 ES

  8. NEWBIE says:

    I am seriously only bear around, many of you are high fiving and poking fun at me- I can handle it but you are missing the big picture. Look at the world around you, its falling apart. Greed is keeping many of you bullish, This Ponzi market will not go up forever and will end with out warning and unfortunately most will go down with the ship. In my opinion this ending will be epic. Best of luck.

    • mjtplayer says:

      I’m with you Newbie

    • manunidhi21 says:

      Hi Newbie,
      It was always like this. Every generation was in different times..its just perspective 🙂
      I like the pic you post..thnx

    • Gary Lewis says:

      Hi Newbie, you are correct however one thing that I learned from 40 years experience trading the markets and that is, the markets can remain irrational much longer than I can stay solvent. You may be right eventually, but it might not be in my lifetime. Just sayin. but as I am moderately in puts only now, I hope you will be right.

  9. manunidhi21 says:

    Hi Tony..
    Can this be move from 2063 be considered impulsive ?

  10. 7dayyss says:

    Still not 2110, but took out initial high, 2108.1. I guess there playing with us!

  11. reddragonleo says:

    While I think we are “close” to having a breakout to a new high soon I just can’t get excited about going long with the VIX so low and all those bulls still onboard from the 2040 SPX area over the last several months. If SkyNet would just flush them out with some drop to 2000-2020 I’d become a bull again.

    They never filled the VIX gap at 16.60 and that leaves some hope that they might just be planing another drop to get the Weekly chart oversold and then allow for a bottom to form. All the bears would pile on below 2040 and once SkyNet gets the bus full it should be plenty of fuel to squeeze them up hard like the rip from the 1820 SPX low last year in October.

  12. zepfan123 says:

    I suppose it;s possible we stay in this tiny range between 2130 and 2070 for a lot longer than anyone thinks is possible.- Pretty much everybody out there including me thought we’d be in a breakout well above 2130 or well below 2070 by now. A breakout will happen eventually of course..but based on all the potential market moving data and signals we’ve had the last 4 months that should have given us one by now..I think it’s impossible to call the approx timing of it here.
    But the market looks like it’s going to hold most of todays gains here.

  13. mjtplayer says:

    Market seems stuck here at the SPX .618 retrace and DOW .50 retrace – topping out in minute b?


  14. H D says:

    very little drama for a news day, did we get failure to take out 2110 and -D?

  15. gtoptions says:

    Lloyd C. Blankfein said it best, “We are in for a longish, positive market”. 😉

  16. rc1269 says:

    not surprisingly, the Fed says and does absolutely nothing new, again. i’m really hoping the next time Yellen is sitting before congress, somebody asks her this:

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