Monday update

SHORT TERM: gap down opening, DOW -128

Overnight the Asian markets lost 2.0%. Europe opened lower and lost 2.0% as well. US index futures were lower overnight, and at 8:30 Durable goods orders were reported higher: +3.4% v -2.2%. The market gapped down at the open to SPX 2070 and declined to 2064 in the opening minutes. Then the market tried to rally from an extremely oversold condition. By 10:30 the SPX hit 2076, but then gradually drifted lower into the afternoon. Just before the close the SPX retested 2064, then bounced to close at 2068.

For the day the SPX/DOW were -0.65%, and the NDX/NAZ were -0.90%. Bonds gained 16 ticks, Crude slid $1.05, Gold slipped $6, and the USD was lower. Medium term support drops to the 2019 and 1973 pivots, with resistance at the 2070 and 2085 pivots. Tomorrow: Case-Shiller at 9am, Consumer confidence at 10am, and the FED starts its two day FOMC meeting.

The market gapped down at the open dropping below our first level of concern at SPX 2074. The recent uptrend from SPX 2045-2133 now looks corrective, as the first of the three waves (2074-2051-2133) was overlapped this morning. The DOW, which surprisingly did not confirm an uptrend, has now completely retraced its July rally and made a lower low. Not a good sign, as it does not look like any type of Intermediate wave iii uptrend is underway. If anything, it looks like Intermediate ii may still be underway. Or worse care Primary IV, which we now give a 50% probability. Short term support is at SPX 2044 and the 2019 pivot, with resistance at the 2070 and 2085 pivots. Short term momentum is displaying a positive divergence at the close. Best to your trading!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend under pressure

LONG TERM: bull market


About tony caldaro

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160 Responses to Monday update

  1. How do you make new highs. Make everyone believe the sky is falling, bring the markets down to its 200 moving day avg . But due it on a Tuesday fed meeting and ramp it up, Then on Wednesday gap it up and then have the fed say we are going to remain accomadiative until next year cause thing are not so good, then you get a Thursday and Friday rally to new highs, seems plausable .

    Or we could be in P4. No idea anymore

  2. NEWBIE says:

    Next move down to 2025 or 1950 on spx. Enjoy the ride!

  3. stmro says:

    After 5 continuous bearish days you gotta expect a bounce like this. 2100 and a juicy short setup beckons.

    Whatever happens, I’d close short term longs on any gap up tomorrow or overnight if you’re trading derivatives.

  4. Thanks TC! Being a Bear or a Bull sure is tough these days. 😉

    The bearish leg ends with a close above 2091.12 and then limbo land.

    Buy above 2104.04 with Stop 2082.49 and Target 2191.05.
    Sell below 2069.62 with Stop 2094.50 no clear Target.

  5. lunker1 says:

    3 SPX EMAs 2096/7 see Tonys charts

  6. uncle10 says:

    Thanks Tony.

    its amazing the us markets are this high. its amazing the us markets are this low.
    this is what i think to myself nearly everyday….😉

  7. pooch77 says:

    Piv dead Piii lives on,bounce to strong dailies pointing up

  8. frommi2 says:


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