Friday update

SHORT TERM: selling continues, DOW -163

Overnight the Asian markets lost 0.9%. Europe opened lower and lost 1.0%. US index futures were higher overnight, and the SPX opened at 2106. Right after that spike high opening, again not support by the futures market, the market started to pullback. In the opening minutes the SPX hit 2098, then bounced to 2103 by 10am. At 10am New home sales were reported lower: 482k v 546k. The market then headed lower, into the afternoon, with only 3 and 4 point bounces, until it hit 2077 by 3pm. Then the market bounced into the close to end the week at SPX 2080.

For the day the SPX/DOW were -1.00%, and the NDX/NAZ were -1.05%. Bonds gained 6 ticks, Crude slid 25 cents, Gold rose $10, and the USD was higher. Medium term support drops to the 2070 and 2019 pivots, with resistance at the 2085 and 2131 pivots. Today the WLEI was reported lower: 50.3% v 50.6%.

The market opened slightly higher today, but by 10am it started heading lower yet again. After eight days of higher highs/lows, we have now had four straight days of lower highs/lows. The selling this week has been quite steady since the uptrend high was made on Monday at SPX 2133. There has been only one notable reversal (2110-2119) during this 56 point decline (2133-2077). The uptrend displays only three waves: 2074-2051-2133, and the market is close to overlapping the first. The DOW, btw, has already done so and is close to retracing its entire rally. Despite the new bull market highs in the NDX/NAZ the general market is starting to display deterioration. More on this in the weekend update. Best to your weekend!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend under pressure

LONG TERM: bull market


About tony caldaro

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51 Responses to Friday update

  1. I realize my earlier count was based on a misunderstanding of the new count Tony is considering. He is now suggesting that we are in Int. C of Major A of Primary 4. Unless Int C subdivides and has a strong minor b upmove, the next sizable rally would be a Major B.

  2. fotis2 says:

    I missed a decent swing short by being hardheaded on Tuesday there was 3Bar reversal validation(somehow I misread this one as not valid with a close above Friday’s low) on daily +CCI 2nd daily close bellow 100 1st target 17pips downside usual strategy 3positions close no.1 at target trail no.2 at 50% move SL to even on no.3 position and close whan daily CCI hits -100(I don’t swing trade often my bread and butter is a simple plan ie: short the ralies when daily CCI breaks bellow 100 , buy the dips when above -100 combined with a 30min. breakout system for day trades) .Letting emotion take hold I decided to go long at 38.2 fib retrace hoping for a W5 bounce.Hope is not a strategy and the mistake was I became so focused on the result that ACTION took second place.Right now there is a valid 3bar reversal to the upside on the weekly looking at the CCI on said timeframe it must be defended at -100 OR 2050ish SPX stongly by the bulls because a close bellow 2044 on Friday and all bets are of.GL and play safe.

  3. blackjak100 says:

  4. dsoble2014 says:

    Uptrend under pressure….another possibility is that there was never an uptrend at all. Another way to look at the last seven months is to say that we have been in an extended topping process that may now be coming to a head. Of course, that isn’t as much fun as saying we are in an uptrend, we are in a downtrend, when in reality we have gone nowhere. It is all a matter of how you read the charts.

  5. Blackjack, I really like your IHS with a target of 2186. Screw the bears one more time before we fall off the cliff. Because I like it, probably won’t happen. Leadership is wobbling and everything else looks like crap. But you never no.

    • blackjak100 says:

      that wasn’t me but thanks. My target is 2160-2190 to complete P3 ED. RSI(5) may have broke 4 which almost always guarantees a 20 pt bounce. I bought SPY calls at 2080 myself. GL and cheers!

  6. mjtplayer says:

    Hey Tony, welcome to the P4 camp, been saving a spot for you. Though, I get the feeling your just checking it out, but not entirely ready to pitch tent and sit by the campfire yet😉

    Last one to arrive at camp gets the warm beers and cold burgers 🙂

  7. Hi,Tony,maybe Dow tests 2011’s trendline(magenta)/channel’s middle line,thanks

  8. sibyn says:

    SPX BART 1820
    DOW BART 15855
    DAX RCH 9232
    EW cant see that.
    Regards NybisSibyn

  9. The Weekly NYSE A-D line looks as if it is heading down towards at least the 386K support level. If we are in the C leg of an Intermediate 2 correction and this down leg subdivides into an a-b-c zig-zag, then the 377 K level is a probable target where it would find support whereas a simple C leg would be more likely to stop at the 386K level. The 377K scenario is one that I hope does not materialize because that implies a rather deep price decline. Best case scenario for the ending period of an Int 2 decline would be early August. A steeper and more extended outcome would place the terminus time of the correction in the last half of August.$NYAD

  10. Page says:

    Thanks Tony. Have a nice weekend.

  11. Saw George Harrison on here today…he said his heaven/hell indicator shows we have a chance of a crash in the next 7 days.Have we ever had a crash in July? Maybe Shemitah is coming early this year.

    • Page says:

      Yah right, every time market pulls back some, people start calling crashes, 5%, 10% corrections and Armageddon🙂

      • Things in favor of a crash:
        1) Hindenburgs
        2) Unknown problems in China
        3) Big deterioration in breadth
        4 ) No one expecting it…except Newbie
        Even I don t think that…but looking for something substantial this year.This week? Let me tell you…OOPS the phones ringing..I ll tell you
        I m just glad GDX showed a pulse.Good luck.

    • reddragonleo says:

      Shemitah will be a bottoming area… too much promotion of that information on the internet right now. It’s always a “mis-direction” move when it’s heavily published on the internet.

      But… if we are to have a nice correction it will happen before the Shemitah, and “if” there is to be one day that the market “crashes” the most it will be in late August. While I don’t have a clue on what might happen in the next couple of months I did post my “speculation” on it about a month ago with the date I think we “could” have a false flag happen and therefore a crash. It’s in late August…

  12. stmro says:

    Out of SPX shorts at the close. Odds are good there will be a bounce on Monday. 5 down days in a row is much rarer than 5 up days in a row, and that was already very low probability.

    However if the bounce is weak and fails to clear the middle band / 50dma on a closing basis, I will start scaling in to some fire and forget swing shorts before I go on holiday. Now if only China could play ball and finally give me 4200-4400 to short.

  13. torehund says:

    Cuba in Exchange for Crimea ?
    Interestingly from 1958 (left wing revolution) to 2010,5 its 6 “Armstrong cycles” of 8,6 years. In 2010 the relations between USA and Cuba once more reached a possible final bottom.
    Well now Obama fixes it, and maybe he didn’t have much of a choice, when it can’t get worse it HAS to improve, nowhere else to go ?? New bull in relations as well as Sugar exports secured during a El Nino period that may create the first sugar high🙂

  14. 56rambler says:

    Thanks, Mr Caldaro,

    Would you expect Primary IV to unfold in three waves or five? These would be major waves, right? And the count you have on your daily SPX charts are showing that we may have completed intermediates a and b (of major 1)?


  15. blackjak100 says:

    Thx TC! No count has a great look anymore, but completely expected as the latest record to fall was # of swings DOW went positive/negative on the year. That number now sits at a fib 21. Still expect c wave to new ATH to begin very shortly and end P3.

  16. NEWBIE says:

    To all my haters:

  17. mjtplayer says:

    Thanks Tony! Yeah, the uptrend is certainly under pressure, for sure.

  18. Tony, are you thinking the rally to 2133 was an X ?

  19. torehund says:

    Thanks Tony, some Autumn breeze in markets, for sure..

    Tough to be running a pig farm, even late in July if you live in Norway. Not only the Seagulls are having a hard time ( ref: Murder Seagulls in England), when the weather is “Changing”; all in faith of political correctness.

  20. GYN LAB says:

    Thanks Mr T! some failed longs at fibs spilling some blood but still looking ok from that long ride from 2045 earlier in July. You count only 3 waves up, but would it be too small to insert a w4 at 2114-2102 on Wed 15th July? Then you have a 5 wave impulse: 2045-2074-2051-2114-2102-2133 with w5=1. As w2 was quite a deep retracement, alternation could suggest a shallow, quick one like the above w4?

    Just a thought and more like a desperate wish to keep impulsive count int iii alive lol

    • GYN LAB says:

      Also just noticed a possible big IHS on hourly chart: neckline 2131 pivot, LS 2072 June low, Head 2044-5 July low, RS possibly today low 2077? If we get a big rally up next week, then target around 2220 for int iii (coincidentally it is exactly 1.618 extension of 2045-2133)
      Interesting pattern indeed…

    • tony caldaro says:

      sorry only see three waves so far

  21. Thanks Mr C…looked like 50 m shares on GDX through 3pm (edt) and 50m the last hour with buying.Very promising.I added a little before my 3pm cutoff time.Goldfingers crossed we can close some gaps up to 15.87 minimum.Good luck all.

  22. kvilia says:

    Uh-oh… Thank you, Tony. In your sentiment I am reading it will be just a shortable bounce. I am looking forward to the weekend update.
    Have a good weekend!

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