Friday update

SHORT TERM: selling continues, DOW -163

Overnight the Asian markets lost 0.9%. Europe opened lower and lost 1.0%. US index futures were higher overnight, and the SPX opened at 2106. Right after that spike high opening, again not support by the futures market, the market started to pullback. In the opening minutes the SPX hit 2098, then bounced to 2103 by 10am. At 10am New home sales were reported lower: 482k v 546k. The market then headed lower, into the afternoon, with only 3 and 4 point bounces, until it hit 2077 by 3pm. Then the market bounced into the close to end the week at SPX 2080.

For the day the SPX/DOW were -1.00%, and the NDX/NAZ were -1.05%. Bonds gained 6 ticks, Crude slid 25 cents, Gold rose $10, and the USD was higher. Medium term support drops to the 2070 and 2019 pivots, with resistance at the 2085 and 2131 pivots. Today the WLEI was reported lower: 50.3% v 50.6%.

The market opened slightly higher today, but by 10am it started heading lower yet again. After eight days of higher highs/lows, we have now had four straight days of lower highs/lows. The selling this week has been quite steady since the uptrend high was made on Monday at SPX 2133. There has been only one notable reversal (2110-2119) during this 56 point decline (2133-2077). The uptrend displays only three waves: 2074-2051-2133, and the market is close to overlapping the first. The DOW, btw, has already done so and is close to retracing its entire rally. Despite the new bull market highs in the NDX/NAZ the general market is starting to display deterioration. More on this in the weekend update. Best to your weekend!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend under pressure

LONG TERM: bull market


About tony caldaro

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51 Responses to Friday update

  1. I realize my earlier count was based on a misunderstanding of the new count Tony is considering. He is now suggesting that we are in Int. C of Major A of Primary 4. Unless Int C subdivides and has a strong minor b upmove, the next sizable rally would be a Major B.


  2. fotis2 says:

    I missed a decent swing short by being hardheaded on Tuesday there was 3Bar reversal validation(somehow I misread this one as not valid with a close above Friday’s low) on daily +CCI 2nd daily close bellow 100 1st target 17pips downside usual strategy 3positions close no.1 at target trail no.2 at 50% move SL to even on no.3 position and close whan daily CCI hits -100(I don’t swing trade often my bread and butter is a simple plan ie: short the ralies when daily CCI breaks bellow 100 , buy the dips when above -100 combined with a 30min. breakout system for day trades) .Letting emotion take hold I decided to go long at 38.2 fib retrace hoping for a W5 bounce.Hope is not a strategy and the mistake was I became so focused on the result that ACTION took second place.Right now there is a valid 3bar reversal to the upside on the weekly looking at the CCI on said timeframe it must be defended at -100 OR 2050ish SPX stongly by the bulls because a close bellow 2044 on Friday and all bets are of.GL and play safe.


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