Monday update

SHORT TERM: rally continues, DOW +14

Overnight the Asian markets were mixed. Europe opened lower but gained 0.4%. US index futures were higher overnight, and the market opened two points above Friday’s SPX 2127 close. In the first half hour of trading the market dipped to SPX 2124, then began to rise higher. Heading into the last hour of trading the SPX hit 2133, then dipped to 2127 just before a 2128 close.

For the day the SPX/DOW were +0.05%, and the NDX/NAZ were +0.30%. Bonds lost 8 ticks, Crude dropped 95 cents, Gold fell $30, and the USD was higher. Medium term support remains at the 2085 and 2070 pivots, with resistance at the 2131 and 2198 pivots. Tomorrow: nothing on the economic calendar.

The market opened slightly higher today, dipped, then made a new high for the uptrend at SPX 2133. Today’s action was the eight day in a row, since the SPX 2045 downtrend low, of higher daily highs/lows. With today’s action we can now count seven waves up from the SPX 2051 secondary low, suggesting this wave (Minute iii) is subdividing: 2076-2067-2114-2102-2129-2120-2133. Short term support remains at SPX 2120 and SPX 2102, with resistance at the 2131 and 2198 pivots. Short term momentum remained quite overbought for most of the day, then dropped to near neutral at the close. Best to your trading!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend

LONG TERM: bull market


About tony caldaro

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108 Responses to Monday update

  1. torehund says:

    Germany pondering to run FROM the Euro. Thats like taking the illegal drugs out of Tour de France, and the results would be Drachma-tic; for the then to become “flee market Euro”.

  2. nsteve24 says:

    Anyone subscribed to pebble writer? am curious on his call for CL.
    After reaching his target of 50.11 overnight what does he see for this move out of the falling wedge? Believe he may be looking for 68 next.

  3. After 5 down for a, it is looking like b is going to be a flat and not go much above 2120.

  4. time to run it up into the close. 3:30

  5. john b says:

    now to find a spot for B as the numbers look good for a 5 down

  6. fotis2 says:

    Nice 3bar reversal so far on daily close bellow 2120 short the rally tmrw.

  7. uncle10 says:

    just observing uvxy the markets, and the vix.
    the vix is up .42 / 3.43 percent today. dow down 200+ spy down 10+ and
    uvxy is down -.10 .35 percent.
    Anyone buying uvxy should understand what it is and how it works.

    • bhuggs52 says:

      In my experience UVXY works in slightly odd ways. There’s not always a direct correlation to Mkt movement, up or down, or to the same degree that one might expect. However, that said, on certain market moves, UVXY is fairly predictable and if one catches it right, the payoff is quite significant.

  8. uncle10 says:

    Thanks Tony.

  9. Newbie, this one is on your behave

  10. john b says:

    looking like it could be it,or its an A

  11. Dex T says:

    Huge increase in bullish bloggers the past week! From 16.67% to 42.31%!

  12. Appears to be a completed W.3:5 with 4:5 in progress. At least in my world of make believe.

    • blackjak100 says:

      Wave 5 of 3 sure looks like a three wave structure. I’m not doubting it’s an impulse, but I think it’s labeled incorrectly. It’s possible 2133 marked a b wave top of an expanded flat.

  13. Dex T says:

    I wonder how many other companies are playing accounting tricks?

    “Tanaka will be temporarily replaced by Chairman Masashi Muromachi after an independent inquiry found the CEO had been aware the company had inflated its profits by $1.2 billion over a period of several years.”

  14. The extendathon from 2051 has all the hallmarks of a “3” IMO. Even more detrimental to the “wave C in progress” possibility is the impulsive look of the chief European indices (i.e. Daffy DAX, CAC & FTSE). These have been rallying in tune with the U.S. indices and also look to be in a “4”. (Worse case they’ve completed 5 waves [i.e. all of wave 1] and now are in wave 2 down but I doubt it.) Can’t see any ABCs on these European bourses from the recent lows. Only other possibility for the wave C scenario is that U.S. and European indices will diverge 180 degrees. Chances of that happening are somewhere between extremely remote and non-existent. TC you are the man.

  15. So as long as these levels hold, that was minute 4 now looking for minute 5? at around 2140 then minor 2 down to 2100Ish?

    • Does it look like a minute 4 on INDU to you? Just asking

      • Nasdaq is still strong. If we don’t fall below 2117, im inclined to say Minute 5 is next

      • COMP acts more like a technology sector index and NDX acts like a growth index controlled by the top 10. The creation of NDX was suppose to fix the heavily weighted COMP index but NDX is even worse. I would be cautions on relying on either of these two indexes to justify a new ATH is warrant by the other indexes If you look at Tony’s NDX count you will notice that NDX topped in July maybe it will do it again after either AAPL and/or AMZN report this week.

    • We have 3 waves down (on an SPX 10 min chart) from yesterday’s high with what looks like wave 4 forming. I’m looking for this to take another leg lower for 5th wave and a clear textbook impulse. If this occurs we should get a b wave bounce followed by another impulse to complete a minute iv zig-zag

  16. Tony,
    In the weekend update you mentioned a scenario with a minute iv target around the 2110 area. Given we have pivots at 2120 (just hit) and also 2102, was the 2110 area comment meant to encompass the entire 2120-2102 range or is there some other significance to 2110?

  17. zepfan123 says:

    Well so much for finally getting a run over SPX 2130 and a run to new ATH’s for the SPX and DJIA.- Missed it by “that much” again yesterday.

  18. EL MATADOR (@LoLo_MATADOR) says:
    July 20, 2015 at 1:01 pm
    Maybe in drift up mode but it’s showing wave symmetry resemblance to that Inter b (2093.55) of Major 4 and the drops that follow these vertical rally typically retrace deep and furious.

  19. Dollar just got repelled at 98 dxy and taken to the woodshed.Reminds me of when silver hit $18 a little while ago and was crushed afterward.(Not a prediction).I read that GDX had its highest volume day since 2006 yesterday.Normally a short term bottom…maybe a retest within a month or two.Good volume in the first hour (15m).Buyers stepping up? Hope
    Good luck all.

  20. frommi2 says:

    I couldn`t help but go back to the bear camp. The Russel looks pretty weak now, like a finalized EDT and we have finished wave 2 of the downtrend. Nasdaq has now 5 non overlapping upwaves after the low in october and has maybe finished wave v of III. Its just the S&P that looks strong, but its exactly the same look like in July 2011. But the thing is that the EDT count is still valid, since we didn`t make new highs even if it feels differently.

    • blackjak100 says:

      ED count valid until 2198. Let’s see if we pull back 2090-2100 and then blast off towards 2190 for wave 5 of ED.

      • Might as well go to 2080 and fill the gap.Typical post expiration action.Might get an HO today…yesterday was 110 new highs and 280 new lows.Mcclellan at +22.

        • There is also a Bradley this week either today or Thursday, and yesterday’s 2133 technically did put us at an extreme level for the last 5 weeks. A bunch of the recent Bradley dates at extreme levels (5 week or more highs or lows) saw the extreme levels on Wednesdays of the week of the Bradley. So I’m biasing short up here for a wave 2 down even in Tony’s great scenario, but thinking the best short might be from a slightly higher high, perhaps an ATH, tomorrow. Either way, I’d expect the low to come in the first week of August.

          Not banking on em, but there are some really good crash analogs floating around to the 2000 highs also, and some of those would put us down 300 S&P points in a few weeks. Just want to throw that, not banking on it though, particularly as the yield curve isn’t signalling anything crashy to me.

      • frommi2 says:

        Look at the Russel, i really doubt that we get a new high in the S&P. If i am right, then the Russel is now in a wave 3 down.

  21. blackjak100 says:

    Let’s put the NYAD divergence into perspective – I believe NYAD topped in April 1998 while the tech bubble popped almost 2 yrs later. However, a P4 correction ensued only 5-6 months later. This could suggest a P4 correction can happen much sooner than TC is anticipating. If my facts are wrong, please correct

  22. stephenk1980 says:

    And down we go…

    Was expecting a high today, but probably now just a strong bounce towards the end of the session.

    Annoyed that I didn’t short this yesterday, but ahh well.

    • stephenk1980 says:

      IMO this is the start of a C wave down with the rally that confirmed this ‘uptrend’ as a B wave. Count 3 waves up from the 2044 low with the secondary low @ 2051 + as the C of the B wave. C = 2A which missed my target by one handle (2133.8) and didn’t go in as I was being a pip-dick. Obviously my counts are using prices in the futures, not cash.

      • Wave C count down:
        W1 = 2081.31
        W2 = 2076.53 (aGreekment prevented this wave from being deeper but the ES printed the mini-plunger which retraced back to the start of the W1’s wedge) IMO, ES futures and SPX cash are always in alignment. Lot of traders don’t believe this but it works great for me.
        W3 = 2111.98
        W4 = 2102.49 (expanded flat)
        W5 = W1 = 2132.99 …… SPX hit 2132.82

  23. @ Tony,

    How much tgt for dow??

    @17421 is good for ‘C’??

  24. mjtplayer says:

    IBM down $10 pre-market will be a drag on the DOW today. After the close, all eyes on AAPL earnings.

  25. GYN LAB says:

    Subdividing Minute iii already surpassed 2.618 extension at 2127: next stop 3.0 = 2138 (top of 2131 pivot)
    Watching hourly negative divergence today and how SPX gets to 2138 (if it does…)

    • GYN LAB says:

      Looks like the fifth wave of Minute iii subdividing in 2102-2129-2120-2133-2125-21?? with around ATH at 2135 upper TL of the wedge. A small overthrow could tag the 3.0 at 2138

  26. Stmro & Matador: If we break decisively above the old high on the $SPX and these 2 breadth metrics don’t improve, we could conclude that market leadership has narrowed. With the struggle we have had getting through this resistance area (sound barrier), it is perhaps natural that the smaller caps are subject to persistent profit-taking. Having said that, I have to note the strength of IWO, Russell 2K Growth ishares.

  27. “With today’s action we can now count seven waves up from the SPX 2056 secondary low, suggesting this wave (Minute iii) is subdividing: 2076-2067-2114-2102-2129-2120-2133.”

    I can’t see a secondary low of 2056 on the charts, and even if there is one, why is Tony counting from that point when we have such a clear 2044 low? Does Tony mean the 2051 secondary low?

  28. If GDX wasn t a climactic low I don t want to see one…lol.Depending on what site, volume was anywhere from 118m to 168m shares traded on a 10% down day.RSI at 13…but the MACD is still higher than it was in October 2014.The weekly + div looking lets see if we wind up a few percent tomorrow after more selling in the AM.Looks like someone dumped 45m shares after hours…is that possible? Can t get two sites to agree on volume at all today during regular hours…Good luck all.

  29. Thanks tony.
    Market looks like an F flag building. So we might get a sell off later in the week. ?

    What about yesterday, GOOGLE had the biggest 1 day up in histor. HOLY MOLEY! 🙂

    Does this remind anyone of the tech boom back in 1999 – 2000? hmmmm?

    • Page says:

      No surprises, US federal budget for fiscal year 2015 ends on Sep 30, 2015. So during this time there is always markets volatility and some sort of markets correction. NO CRASH.

  30. pooch77 says:

    What happened to Bourax???

  31. torehund says:

    ..what happened to the easy button on this blog 🙂 Well lets send it to Greece, kick another 30 percent out of government, reduce retirement age to 67 and call Putin 🙂

  32. Wasn’t today’s sp low 2123.65? Making the high of 2133 5 waves? We’re does 2120 come from.


  33. GYN LAB says:

    Thanks Mr T! subdividing Minute iii suggests there is one more high even within this Minute iii wave? then Minute iv pullback then one more high Minute v?
    Is there an alternative which has this 2133 completing Minor 1? TIA

  34. JeffMilano says:

    Thanks Tony for the Dow historical analysis and mon.update.

  35. anyone have any ndx targets or resistance

  36. blackjak100 says:

    2044 + 89 = 2133

  37. stmro says:

    Big big divergence between breadth and price right now. Basically i think a small number of tech stocks are holding us up.$NYAD&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p32917528207

    That and the fact that previous highs act as a natural resistance have me short right now, but ready to bail if we breach all time highs and don’t reverse on the same day.

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